Part III: Tools for Risk Assessment
RADIUS Tool
- Simple Damage Estimation Software -
Dr. Carlos Villacis
Software Purposes
• To facilitate preliminary estimation of
earthquake damage in developing countries
• To be used by city administrators and
general public, not for professional purposes
• To assist in decision making
• To raise awareness of
earthquake risk
Software Characteristics
Goal: To make it as useful and accesible as possible
• Widely available platform (runs on MS-Excel)
• Simple, user-friendly
– Help Function/User Instructions are included
– Narrated Demonstration Video is included
• NOT a GIS(Geographic Information System) type of
program
– A GIS Sample is added for comparison (GIS is a very
useful risk-assessment tool)
Input Data
Program uses commonly available city information
•
•
•
•
•
•
Shape of target region (entered as a grid)
Population and its distribution
Building Inventory and its distribution
Ground Characteristics (Soil conditions)
Lifelines information
Choice of Scenario Earthquake and its parameters
Output
• Ground Shaking Distribution (PGA or MMI
Intensity)
• Building damage
• Lifelines damage
• Human Impact (number of deaths and
injuries)
• Summary Tables and Thematic Maps
showing the results
Example of Data Input Process
• Shape of target region input as a grid
Example for Kobe city
Example of Data Input Process
• Specify the City Area using Excel Mesh
• Input Total Population and Building Counts
Example of Data Input Process
• Input Area ID and Area Name
Example of Data Input Process
Specify the Mesh Weight (building, population distribution)
Example of Data Input Process
• Input Mesh Weight to distribute the building and
population count
Example of Data Input Process
• Specify Ground Characteristics (Soil conditions)
Example of Data Input Process
• Input Local Soil Characteristics
Example of Data Input Process
• Specify Building Inventory by Area
• Percentage of 10 Building Classes in each Area
Example of Data Input Process
• Input Building Inventory by Area
• Buildings and Population are distributed by Mesh Weight
Example of Data Input Process
• Specify and Enter Scenario Earthquake
Output Examples
• Building Damage Distribution
Tool Applications
• Understanding of cities’ earthquake risks
• Estimation of impact of past well-known
earthquakes
• Estimation of impact of any number of
possible future earthquakes
• Delineation of planning policies by decision
makers
• Education and risk awareness of the public
Incorporating DRM in Urban Planning
Katmandú
Tijuana
Dehradun
Antofagasta
Working with local organizations
Training to
Kathmandu
City officers
Working session
with Tijuana
planners
Public seminar in
Antofagasta to discuss
project findings
Results
2003
2012
2007
2022
Developing solutions…
CRÍTICO
ALTA
MEDIA
BAJA
LEVEL RISK - Antofagasta -Chile
2
2
2
2
2
3
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1
1
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2
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1
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1
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8
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9
9
Tangible Products
Seismic scenarios
Development plans
Local Capacity Building
Tangible Products
Mitigation Options
Mitigation Option 1
Mitigation Option 2
Mitigation Option 3
Mitigation Option 4
Cost= $
Cost= $$$
Cost= $$
Cost= $$
30%
60%
Risk Reduction Potential
90%
Tangible Products
Reducción de Riesgo
1600
1400
a
1200
b
1000
c
800
d
600
e
400
200
0
19
89
19
94
19
99
20
04
20
09
20
14
20
19
20
24
20
29
20
34
20
39
20
44
20
49
Investing to
reduce
Tijuana’s
risk
Miles de Personas en Riesgo
1800
Años
Curve e = Investing $15 Mill. in 25 years
END
Thank you for your Attention.