The global metabolic transition:
Changes in material use in Asia, Europe and North
America
Fridolin Krausmann, Simone Gingrich & Sylvia Gierlinger
Conference of the European Society for Environmental History | Turku 28.06. – 01.07.2011
Overview
• The metabolic transition
• Material flow database
• Global trends in material use
• Material flows in UK, Japan and USA
• Industrial vs. industrializing countries
• Concluding remarks
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
The metabolic transition
From tapping solar flows to...
Non-agricultural
population
Agricultural
population
Production
Land use
Photosynthesis
Energy flows
Human labour
Biomass
Fossil Energy
The metabolic transition
....to exploiting fossil stocks
Urban-industr.
population
Production
Agricultural
population
Land use
Photosynthesis
Fossil energy
Energy flows
Human labour
Biomass
Fossil Energy
The metabolic transition
The hypothesis of the metabolic transition is derived
from historical evidence and claims that industrialization
is related to fundamental and characteristic changes in
the structure and size of social metabolism:
– The transformation of the energy system: from solar based
and land related (food, feed, wood) to fossil fuel based; from
tapping flows to exploiting stocks
– Changing relation of land use and energy: agriculture
changes from an „energy source“ to a sink of energy
– Absolute growth of population, material and energy use
– Relative (per capita) growth of material and energy use
– Characteristic metabolic profiles of agrarian and industrial
socioecological regimes
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
Material flow database
• Material Flow Accounting (MFA); based on Eurostat 2009 and
OECD 2008. Advancements for historical application
• Flows:
– Used extraction of materials,
– Imports and Exports
– The database distinguishes ca. 60 material groups at the most detailed
level; all flows in [t/yr];
• Regions and time period covered:
– 175 countries in 10 year intervals from 1950 to present
– 60 countries in annual resolution from 1970 to present
– UK, USA, Japan, World in annual resolution from 1850/1900 to
present
• Data sources: National and international statistical sources; models
to estimate and crosscheck flows of specific materials
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
Material flow accounting (MFA)
Material group
Subgroups
Biomass
Crops; used crop residues; wood; hay
and grazed biomass; fish catch,…
Fossil energy carriers
Coal; petroleum; natural gas; peat
Ores and industrial minerals
Iron and non-iron ores; sand and caly,
fertilizer minerals,…..
Construction minerals
Sand, gravel and crushed stone; clay;
dimension stone,….
MFA derived Indicators:
• Domestic Extraction of raw materials
• Imports and exports of raw materials, semimanufactured and manufactures
products
• Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) = Domestic Extraction + Imports –
Exports
• Physical Trade Balance (PTB) = Imports - Exports
Krausmann et al. ESEH Turku | 30.06.2011
Global trends in material use, 1900-2005
Material use (DMC)
Material and energy use per capita
60
100%
100,0
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass
80,0
Oil price shocks
TPES [GJ/cap/yr]
[billion tons]
40
60%
40%
WEC
20
WWII
DMC/cap (secondary yaxis)
8,0
Material/cap/yr
60,0
6,0
40,0
4,0
Energy/cap/yr
Construction minerals
20%
20,0
Ores and industrial minerals
2,0
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
-
-
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2005
2005
2000
2000
1995
1995
1990
1990
1985
1985
1980
1980
1975
1975
1965
1965
1970
1970
1955
1955
1960
1960
1945
1945
1950
1950
1900
1900
1905
1905
1910
1910
1915
1915
1920
1920
1925
1925
1930
1930
1935
1935
1940
1940
0%
0
DMC [t/cap/yr]
80%
10,0
TPES/cap (primary yaxis)
Material use, population and GDP
Metabolic Rate: Material use per capita
Mineral/fossil
Material Intensity: Material use per GDP
Biomass
Biomass
Mineral/fossil
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
UK, USA and Japan: Three leading economies
•
United Kingdom (UK): Starting
point of the industrial revolution;
leading economy of the 18th and
19th century
•
United States (USA): New World;
overtakes the UK as the leading
economy around 1900. Largest
economy of the 20th century
•
Japan (J): Late comer; rapid
industrialization process after WWII
•
The three countries produce 30% of
the global GDP in 2005
Income [GDP/cap/yr]
USA
UK
Japan
Based on Maddison 2008
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
Development of DMC, 1852/70-2005
United Kingdom
USA
Japan
1973
1973
1973
1917
1929
1941
Sources:
UK: Based on Schandl/Schulz 2002 & Eurostat 2009
USA: Gierlinger/Krausmann 2011
Japan: Krausmann/Gingrich/Nourbach-Sabeth 2011
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
Development of DMC, 1852/70-2005
Metabolic rate: DMC/cap/yr
United Kingdom
Sources:
UK: Based on Schandl/Schulz 2002 & Eurostat 2009
USA: Gierlinger/Krausmann 2011
Japan: Krausmann/Gingrich/Nourbach-Sabeth 2011
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
USA
Japan
Physical trade balance 1852/70-2005:
negative: net exports; positive: net imports
United Kingdom
Sources:
UK: Based on Schandl/Schulz 2002 & Eurostat 2009
USA: Gierlinger/Krausmann 2011
Japan: Krausmann/Gingrich/Nourbach-Sabeth 2011
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
USA
Japan
Material intensity: DMC/GDP
DMCtotal per GDP
DMCminerals/fossils per GDP
1918
USA
1881
1973
UK
Japan
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
Global significance of UK, USA and Japan
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
Growing Giants: Material use in India
Material use (DMC)
Source:
India: Singh et al. 2011
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
Material use (DMC/cap/yr)
Concluding remarks
• The metabolic transition entails a shift from biomass
towards fossil and mineral resources. Biomass use is
linked to population; fossil and mineral materials to GDP
• The emerging industrial metabolism did not replace the
agrarian metabolism, but added on top of it.
• Materialization of the economy can be a very fast
process; dematerialization is a slow process.
• Periods in which infrastructures and large industries are
built up are crucial for the development of the industrial
metabolic pattern. These structures impose important
legacies for long term development.
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
• Data available for download:
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/1088.htm
• Publications:
– Krausmann, F. (Ed.). 2011. The global metabolic transition. Long term historical
trends and patterns in global material and energy use. Social Ecology Working
Paper 131. Inst. of Social Ecology, Vienna: http://www.uniklu.ac.at/socec/eng/inhalt/338.htm
– Krausmann, F., Gingrich, S., Eisenmenger, N., Erb, K.H., Haberl, H., FischerKowalski, M. 2009. Growth in global materials use, GDP and population
during the 20th century, Ecological Economics 68 (10). 2696-2705.
– Krausmann, F., Gingrich, S., Nourbakhch-Sabet, R., 2011. The metabolic
transition in Japan: A material flow account for the period 1878 to 2005.
Journal of Industrial Ecology (in print).
– Gierlinger, S. and Krausmann, F., 2011. The physical economy of the United
States of America: Extraction, trade and consumption of materials from 1870
to 2005. Journal of Industrial Ecology (in print).
Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011
Thank you for your attention!
Krausmann et al. ESEH Turku | 30.06.2011