The metabolic scale of the world economy
in the past century
Fridolin Krausmann, Marina Fischer-Kowalski
Julia Steinberger and Nina Eisenmenger
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Overview
• Global metabolic scale
• Metabolic rates
• Global convergence scenarios
• Resource productivity
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Global materials extraction = use (DMC)
1900 to 2005
60
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass
[billion tons]
40
20
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
0
Global material extraction database
Material type
Content
Source
Biomass
165 primary crops incl. used
crop residues (<50 crops)
Roughage and grazed
biomass (12 items)
Wood harvest
FAO and predecessors;
used crop residues (model);
grazed biomass (model);
wood harvest (FAO, various
estimates)
Fossil energy carriers
Hard and soft coal,
petroleum, natural gas, peat
Podobnik 1995, United
Nations 1950, IEA 2007
Ores
44 ores (gross ore)
Metal content: USGS 2008
Gross ores: estimate
Non metallic minerals
33 non-metallic minerals
USGS 2008
Construction minerals
Limestone for cement
production, sand and gravel
for construction
Conservative estimate;
based on cement
production; concrete
production and asphalt
production
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Metabolic scale:
Global materials use 1900 to 2005
60
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass
[billion tons]
40
20
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
0
Metabolic scale:
Global materials use 1900 to 2005
25
Biomass
Fossil energy carriers
20
Ores and industrial
minerals
Construction minerals
[billion tons]
15
10
5
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
-
Periods of growth:
Average annual growth rates (DMC, GDP, population)
[average annual growth rate]
5,0%
1900-1945
1945-1973
1973-2000
2000-2005
4,0%
3,0%
2,0%
1,0%
0,0%
DMC
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
GDP
Population
Metabolic scale
Definition: metabolic scale is the size of the overall
annual material (DMC) or primary energy input (TPES,
DEC) of a socio-economic system, measured according
to established standards of MEFA analysis.
The metabolic scale of the world economy has been
increasing by one order of magnitude during the last
century:
– Materials use: From 7 billion tons to over 60 bio t (DMC, all
materials).
– Energy use: From 44 EJ primary energy to 480 EJ (TPES,
commercial energy only).
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Metabolic rate
Definition: Metabolic rate is the metabolic scale of a
socio-economic system divided by its population
number = annual material / energy use per capita
It represents the biophysical burden associated to an
average individual
The global metabolic rate:
• Moderate growth from 1900 to 1945 (0.2%);
• Rapid growth from 1945 to 1973 (1.6%);
• Stabilization from 1973 to 2000 (0.6%) despite substantial economic
growth; 8t/cap (DMC) and 60 GJ/cap (TPES).
• Since 2000: a new phase of growth (3.7%) can be observed.
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Metabolic rates:
Material and energy use per capita
10,0
100,0
TPES/cap (primary yaxis)
80,0
DMC/cap (secondary yaxis)
8,0
60,0
6,0
40,0
4,0
Energy
2,0
20,0
-
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
-
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
DMC [t/cap/yr]
TPES [GJ/cap/yr]
Materials
National trends: metabolic scale (DMC)
60
9
Global
Construction minerals
USA: 15% of global
Minerals
Ores
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil fuels
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass
Biomass
40
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1900
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
0
1910
0
1905
3
1900
20
1905
[billion tons]
[billion tons]
6
3
Brazil: 4% of global
Minerals
5
Ores
Construction minerals
Fossil fuels
Ores and industrial minerals
Biomass
India: 8% of global
Fossil fuels
4
Biomass
[billion tons]
[billion tons]
2
3
2
Sources:
USA: Gierlinger 2009
Brazil: Mayer 2009
India: Lanz 2009
1
1
0
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
0
National trends: metabolic rates
30,0
30
Construction minerals
Minerals
Global
Ores and industrial minerals
USA
Ores
Fossil energy carriers
Fossil fuels
Biomass
Biomass
20
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1900
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
0
1910
1905
10
1900
10,0
1905
[t/cap/yr]
[t/cap/yr]
20,0
30
30
Construction minerals
Minerals
Brazil
Ores
India
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil fuels
Fossil fuels
Biomass
Biomass
20
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Sources:
USA: Gierlinger 2009
Brazil: Mayer 2009
India: Lanz 2009
1905
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
0
1910
0
1905
10
1900
10
1900
[t/cap/yr]
[t/cap/yr]
20
Metabolic rate vs. income (GDP/cap):
R2 = 0.64
N = 175 countries
Year 2000
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Metabolic rates
by development status and population density
DMC t/cap in yr 2000
25
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
20
Fossil fuels
Biomass
15
10
5
-
Share of world
population
Pop density
High density
industrial
Low density
industrial
High density
developing
Low density
developing (NW)
13%
6%
62%
6%
123
12
140
19
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Scenario assumptions
(all : relation between high density/low density countries remains unchanged;
population growth by UN projection)
1.
Baseline 2000 scenario
2.
Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their
metabolic rates of the year 2000, developing countries catch up to
same rates
3.
Factor 2 and catching up: industrial countries reduce their
metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up
4.
Freeze global DMC: global resource consumption by the year
2000 remains constant by 2050, industrial and developing
countries settle for identical metabolic rates
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Global convergence scenarios
Global metabolic rates in t/cap
16
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial
minerals
Fossil fuels
12
160
Biomass
Global metabolic scales in billion
tonnes
8
120
4
80
0
Baseline 2000
Freeze &
catching up
Factor 2 &
catching up
Freeze global
DMC
40
0
Baseline 2000
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Freeze &
catching up
Factor 2 &
catching up
Freeze global
DMC
Global convergence scenarios
Global metabolic rates in t/cap
18
Baseline 2000
Global metabolic scales in billion tonnes
Freeze & catching up
150
Freeze global DMC
Baseline 2000
12
Freeze & catching up
Factor 2 & catching up
Freeze global DMC
metabolic scale [Gt]
metabolic rate [t/cap/yr]
Factor 2 & catching up
6
100
50
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
-
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
-
Resource productivity:
100
1,0
75
0,8
50
0,5
25
0,3
Energy (primary y-axis)
Materials (secondary y-axis)
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
-
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Material iproductivity [$ GDP/kg DMC]
Energy productivity [$ GDP/GJ TPES]
GDP per unit of materials and energy input
Resource productivity:
GDP per unit of materials input (biomass/minerals)
2,5
Material productivity [$ GDP/kg DMC]
Biomass
2,0
1,5
Minerals
1,0
0,5
Biomass
Minerals
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
-
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009
Thank you for your attention!
• Data download:
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/1088.htm
• Publications:
– Krausmann, F., Gingrich, S., Eisenmenger, N., Erb, K.H., Haberl, H., FischerKowalski, M. 2009. Growth in global materials use, GDP and population
during the 20th century, Ecological Economics (in press).
– Krausmann, F., M. Fischer-Kowalski, H. Schandl, and N. Eisenmenger 2008. The
global socio-metabolic transition: past and present metabolic profiles and
their future trajectories. Journal of Industrial Ecology 12(5/6), 637-656.
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009