Technical Seminar on Accreditation Delivering Confidence in the Provision of Energy
Organized by
Sri Lanka Accreditation Board for Conformity Assessment &
Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority
Global Importance of Sustainable
Energy and Sri Lankan Context
Thusitha Sugathapala
Director General
Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority
Ministry of Environment & Renewable Energy
09th June 2014
OVERVIEW
•
The Facts

•
•
•
Solutions for Sustainability
Energy Stock
Renewable Energies


•
Development, Energy and Environment
RE Technologies
Cost of REs
National Energy Scenario



Features of Energy Sector
Energy Intensity in Economy
Renewable Energy Resources
2
FACTS
 Development and Energy
ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT
3
FACTS
 Energy and Fossil Fuel
 Global Primary Energy Supply by Source (in EJ)
Other
Nuclear
Hydro Electricity
Natural Gas
Fossils
81%
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Fossil Fuel Era
4
FACTS
 Role of Renewable Energy
 Global Primary Energy Supply by Source in 2010
Modern Biomass
Heat/Electricity
3.27%
Natural Gas
22.0%
Nuclear
2.7%
Biofuels
0.67%
Coal
27.4%
Hydro
power
3.36%
Renewables
16.7%
Traditional
Biomass
8.47%
Oil
31.2%
Geothermal
Heat/Electricity
0.18%
Wind Power
0.52%
Solar
PV /
CSP
0.07%
Solar Thermal
Hot water/Heat
0.17%
5
FACTS
 Role of Renewable Energy
 Global Electricity Production in 2012
300
Other
renewables
5.2%
Fossil fuels
and nuclear
78.3%
Installed Caacity (GW)
Hydro power
16.5%
250
200
150
100
50
0
6
FACTS
 Extraction and Consumption of Resources
Material Extraction
GDP
Billion tons
Trillion International Dollars
GDP
Ores and
Industrial
Minerals
Fossil Energy
Carriers
Construction
Minerals
Biomass
Depletion of Natural Resources
7
FACTS
 Extraction and Consumption of Resources
 Eg: Oil
The Energy Crisis !
8
FACTS
 Extraction and Consumption of Resources
 Fossil Fuel Reserve to Production Ratios
Reserve to Production Ratio (Years)
250
200
150
Oil
Coal
100
Gas
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
The Energy Crisis !
2015
FACTS
 Energy Efficiency

Eg: Lighting

Water Pumping
10
FACTS
 Energy Efficiency

Eg: Transport
15%
Standby/
Idle
Accessories
20%
100%
6%
63%
Engine Losses
14%
Driveline Losses
11
FACTS
 Energy Efficiency
 Comfort
35
Fan 1
30
Fan 2
Fan 3
Efficiency
25
Fan 4
20
Fan 5
15
Fan 6
Fan 7
10
Fan 8
Fan 9
5
Fan 10
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Average
Regulator Setting
12
FACTS
Meat Consumption/Capita/Year
 Development and Food Consumption
USA
Brazil
China
UK
India
GNI / Capita / Year
More Meat
 More Energy + More Water + More Land
FACTS
 Cost of Living
 Arithmetic average of prices in four commodity subindices (food, non-food agro items, metals, and energy)
14
FACTS
 Carrying Capacity of Biosphere (Overloading!)
 Effects on natural cycles (Sustainability!)
The Environment Crisis !
FACTS
 Climate Change and GHG Emissions






Drivers of CC is anthropogenic substances and processes
that alter the Earth’s energy budget
Main substances affecting the Earth’s energy budget is
GHGs
GHG emissions continue accelerate despite reduction
efforts - due to fossil fuel combustion industrial processes
The current trajectory of global annual and cumulative
emissions of GHGs is inconsistent with widely discussed
goals of limiting global warming at 1.5 to 2 C above the
pre-industrial level
Main drivers of GHG emissions are growth in economic
output and population, outpacing emission reductions
from improvements in energy intensity
Future development pathways and energy sector will
be shaped by climate change than resource depletion.
16
MAJOR FINDINGS
 Main drivers of GHG emissions are growth in
economic output and population.
Increased use of coal
relative to many other
energy sources has
reversed a long‐
standing pattern of
gradual decarbonization of the
world’s energy supply
Growth in Economic
output is the major
driver of GHG
emissions
The decline of energy
intensity of economic
output has had an
offsetting effect on
global emissions
arisen from growth in
population
17
Source: IPCC AR5, 2014
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
 Drivers
 Socio Economic Development
 Energy Security
 Environment Sustainability
 The Solutions
Environment
Sustainability
Energy
Security
A
Sustainable
Energy
B
C
(A) Developing Renewable Energy
(B) Improving Energy Efficiency
(C) Rational Use of Energy
Socio-Economic
Development
18
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
 Energy Industry - The Targets
 Energy demand
World primary energy demand by scenario
19
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
 Energy Industry - The Targets
 Technology options for mitigation of GHG emissions
World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the
450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario
Role of RE and EE
20
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
 Buildings
 Evolution of energy intensity for materials
Source: The Energy Report – 100% Renewable Energy By 2050, WWF
21
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
 Buildings
 Evolution of energy intensity in the buildings sector
Source: The Energy Report – 100% Renewable Energy By 2050, WWF
22
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
 Buildings: Main Areas of Challenges
Refurbishment to
Transform Existing
Buildings into EEB
 Systems and
equipment for energy
use for existing
buildings
 Envelope
 Solutions for cultural
heritage
 Systemic approach
for existing buildings
 Relationship between
user and energy
 Geoclustering
 Value chain and SMEs
focus
 Knowledge transfer
 Business models,
organizational and
financial models
(including ESCOs)
Technological Aspects
Cross-Cutting
Challenges
Organizational Aspects
 Systems and Equipment for
energy use
 Storage of energy
 Energy production
 Quality indoor environment
 Design – integration of new
solutions
 Envelope and components
 Mass customization
 Automation and control
 Life cycle analysis (LCA)
 Energy Management Systems
 Labeling and standardization
 Materials: embodied energy
and multi-functionality
 Diagnosis and predictive
maintenance
ENERGY EFFICIENT
DISTRICT/COMMUNITIES
 Integration between buildings,
grid, heat network …
 Systems and Equipment for
energy production
 District and urban design
 Systems and Equipment for
energy use
 Storage of energy: thermal,
electrical or other
 Retrofitting
Neutral/Energy
Positive New
Buildings
 Systems and
equipment for
energy use for
new buildings
 Systemic
approach for
new buildings
23
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
 Interventions in Transport
 Energy Efficient & Environmentally Sustainable Transport
System (E3ST)
-
Energy intensity reduction by improving technical efficiency
Emission intensity reduction by cleaner fuels
Structural and systems efficiency improvement
Production and resource efficiency improvement
24
ENERGY STOCK
 The Resources
Energy Received by the Earth
 Power
 Energy
= 122 PW
= 3,850,000 EJ/y
Annual Solar
Energy
Solar Energy
for Wind
Hydro Power
Exploitable
Wind Energy
Solar Energy for
Photosynthesis
Renewable
Geothermal
Energy
Total Geothermal
Energy(<10 km)
 Global Energy Demand: 445 EJ/y
Uranium for
Breeder
Nuclear
Reactors
Total Energy Consumption of the World
Exploitable
Oil Reserve
Total Coal
Reserve
Exploitable
Coal Reserve
Solar Energy for
Evaporation of Water
Total Oil
Reserve
Uranium for
Conventional
Nuclear Reactors
Exploitable
Oil Shale
Total Gas Reserve Exploitable Gas Reserve
25
RENEWABLE ENERGIES
 RE Technologies
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Tidal
Wave Biomass
26
RENEWABLE ENERGIES
 Cost of REs
Resource /
Technology
Large hydro
Small hydro
Wind (On-shore)
Wind (Off-shore)
Wind (Small scale)
Biomass Power
Geothermal Power
Solar PV (module)
Solar PV
(Concentrating)
Rooftop solar PV
Utility-scale solar PV
Concentrating solar
thermal power (CSP)
Typical Characteristics
Cost (LKR/kWh)
10 MW - 20,000 MW
0.1 kW - 10 MW
1.5 MW - 3.5 MW
1.5 MW - 7.5 MW
0.1 kW - 100 kW
20 kW - 20 MW
1 MW - 100 MW
Efficiency: (i) Crystalline 12 19 %, (ii) Thin film 4 - 20%
4 to 10
7 to 50
7 to 22
16 to 33
20 to 46
10 to 23
7 to 13
Efficiency: 25%
-
2 - 5 kWpeak
200 kW - 100 MW
50 - 500 MW (trough);
10 - 20 MW (tower)
22 to 60
20 to 46
-
26 to 52
27
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
Primary Energy Supply (kTOE)
 Primary Energy Supply by Source
Coal
12000
New RE
New RE
10000
8000
Hydro
Large Hydro
Coal
Petroleum
6000
Oil
Biomass
4000
Biomass
2000
0
Year
28
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
 Electricity Sector – Gross Generation
Coal
New RE
Oil
Hydro
29
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
 Sectoral Energy Consumption by Source in 2011
Industrial Sector
Coal
2.3%
Household, Commercial & others Sector
Electricity
13.4%
Electricity
13.3%
Petroleum
8.8%
Biomass
72.8%
Petroleum
11.6%
Biomass
78.0%
Transport Sector
Electricity Sector
Av. Fuel
12.1%
Coal
11.9%
Gasoline
27.3%
NRE
6.2%
Oil
58.8%
Diesel
60.5%
Large Hydro
23.1%
30
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
 Transport Sector
 Dominated by Road Transport
Active
Vehicle
Fleet
4,000,000
Active Vehicle Fleet
3,500,000
3,000,000
Motor Cycles
2,500,000
The Issue
Three Wheelers
Motor Cars
2,000,000
Dual Purpose Vehicles
1,500,000
Buses
Lorries
1,000,000
Land Vehicles
500,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
31
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
 Life Style
 Electricity System Load Profile
32
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
 Life Style
Lifts
2.17%
 Electricity Consumption
Electricity Consumption by Energy
Service in a Typical Household
Iron
Blender
4%
1%
Office
Equipments
& Others
4%
Others
7%
Water Pump
4%
Rice Cooker
12%
Water
pumping
0.32%
Refrigerator
51%
Lighting
15.97%
Air
Conditioning
77.54%
Electricity Consumption by Energy
Service in a Typical Office Building
TV
13%
Lights
8%
33
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO
 CEB Generation Plan - Base Case 2013-2032
Energy Mix - 2015
Existing
Major
Hydro
28%
Oil
32%
Coal
34%
Energy Mix - 2020
Oil
6%
Coal
62%
New Major
Hydro
0%
NCRE
6%
Energy Mix - 2032
Existing
Major
Hydro
22%
New Major
Hydro
2%
NCRE
8%
Oil
1%
Existing
Major
Hydro
12%
Coal
79%
New Major
Hydro
2%
NCRE
6%
34
ENERGY INTENSITY IN ECONOMY
Competitive Industrial Performance Index
 Industrial Competitiveness
Energy Intensity
Sri Lanka
35
ENERGY INTENSITY IN ECONOMY
 Energy Management
 National Targets (by 2020)
Technology / Process
Annual
Saving
(GWh)
Technology / Process
Energy Labeling Program
Ceiling Fans
Tubular Fluorescent Lamps
Magnetic Ballasts
Refrigerators
Efficient lighting
35
65
80
16
173
Efficient motors
Building Management System
Efficient office equipment
Solar water heaters
Telecommunication
Efficient air compressors
Air Conditioning
250
Eliminating Incandescent Lamps
ISO 50001
375
Green Buildings
1,990 GWh
Total
Annual
Saving
(GWh)
185
20
16
5
10
11
205
550
36
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES
 Categories
 Conventional RE Resources
 New Renewable Energy (NRE) Resources
 Conventional RE Resources
 Conventional Biomass
 Large Hydro
Sustainability ?
 NRE Resources






Small Hydro
Wind
Solar
Modern Biomass / Biofuels
Geothermal
Ocean Thermal/ Wave/ Tidal
Already being harnessed
Yet to be harnessed
NRE Targets – 20% by 2020
37
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES
 Grid Connected Power Plants - Progress
Approval Stage
Small
Hydro
No.
Wind
Biomass
Solar
Total
MW
No.
MW
No.
MW
No.
MW
No.
MW
Commissioned
125 264.3
12
98.45
6
20
3
1.36
146 384.2
Energy Permit
Provisional
Approval
90
181.4
2
11.3
16
92.8
4
40.0
112 325.4
88
100.7
2
20.0
12
55.2
1
10.0
103 185.8
38
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES
 Challenges for RE Electricity Generation
 Constraints in national grid in absorbing RE based
electricity
o
o
o
o
o
Exceeding substation / transmission capacities
Time / seasonal variability + Lack of storage options
Non-dispatchable generation
Limitations in Peak-matching
Geographical mismatch of resource and demand
 Lack of dynamic modelling / advanced forecasting tools
and technical knowhow
 Lack of local capacity for manufacture
 Lack of R&D efforts
 Higher initial costs of new REs
39
Thank You
40