Deterministic and Empirical Assessment of
Smoke’s Contribution to Ozone
(DEASCO3) Project
WESTAR-EPA Wildfire and Ozone
Exceptional Events Meeting
Tom Moore
March 5, 2013 - Sacramento
3-year Average 4th Highest 8-Hour Ozone value by County
2008-2010
AQS Federal Reference Method data from the monitoring site in each County with the highest Ozone values
3-year Average 4th Highest 8-Hour Ozone value for Rural/Class I Sites
2008-2010
AQS Federal Reference Method data from rural or Class I area monitoring sites
Overview
• Develop and apply (our) improved understanding of
Fire/Smoke’s impact on elevated Ozone episodes
– Assist FLMs in future Ozone air quality planning




For Exceptional Event demonstration packages
FLM future fire “activity planning / scoping”
In SIP process
Provide tools, rules, and examples for use by FLMs, states, EPA, and others
• DEASCO3 project
– Technical elements
– Deliverables
• Companion study started late 2012:
– Prescribed and Other Fire Emissions: Particulate Matter Deterministic &
Empirical Tagging & Assessment of Impacts on Levels (PMDETAIL)
– Funding for both from FLM Joint Fire Sciences Program
4
Western ozone and PM precursors - key emissions sources
• Power plants decreasing markedly
• Mobile sources controlled and emission rates decreasing markedly through
federal rules and state testing programs
• Fire activity and effects are huge (largest air pollution source in the West),
receiving intensive study
– Deterministic & Empirical Assessment of Smoke’s Contribution to Ozone (DEASCO3)
– Prescribed and Other Fire Emissions: Particulate Matter Deterministic & Empirical
Tagging & Assessment of Impacts on Levels (PMDETAIL)
– many others….
• Biogenics (natural plant sources)
• Oil and gas………..
• All sources currently being studied in comprehensive regional modeling
analysis
– 2008 base year
– West-wide Jumpstart Air Quality Modeling Study (WestJumpAQMS)
Western State Power Plant Emissions Trends
600,000
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
SO2 (tpy)
200,000
NOx (tpy)
150,000
100,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Data from EPA Clean Air Markets Division
U.S. Wildfire and Prescribed Fires Acres Burned - 1990 through 2011
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Wildfire Acres
Prescribed Fire Acres
2012 right behind 2006 in wildfire acres burned
DEASCO3 project - purpose & goals
• Assess fire’s impact on elevated ozone episodes with
retrospective studies from the West to the Southeastern
U.S., using empirical and photochemical modeling analyses
• DEASCO3 is initial study of fire and ozone 2002 through
2008, then adds PM for 2002-13 and ozone for 2009-13 in
PMDETAIL
• Outcomes
• Support future collaborative FLM-state ozone air quality planning
• Develop “lessons learned”, basic analysis rules for fire-ozone episodes,
and online tools for FLM-state air quality planning
• Through the WRAP Fire Emissions Tracking System (FETS), prepare
and implement planning-grade fire emissions inventories in the FETS
suitable for SIP work by states and FLMs
• Publish data and analysis results in transparent and reproducible formats
Deterministic and Empirical Assessment of Smoke’s
Contribution to Ozone (DEASCO3) Project
• Analytical results and technical tools for FLMs to participate more fully in
ozone air quality planning efforts
– Complex technical analyses of well-chosen historic events (Case Studies)
 Web-accessible tables, charts, and maps that describe how and to what extent fires
contribute to ambient ozone concentrations
– 2008 national emission inventory development for wildland and crop residue fires
 Apply existing 2002 fire EI data
– Photochemical Grid Modeling (PGM) with source apportionment and empirical
analyses to better assess fire’s contribution to ozone
– Accessible online tool for FLMs to access results and technical products
– Collaborative review and analysis by NPS and USFS air program staff
 Integrate FLMs’ technical and policy needs and perspectives into the technical products
– Essential documentation and summary reports of methods and results
– DEASCO3 (project 1 of 2) complete June 2013
DEASCO3 Hypotheses
Technical
Ho1 – Smoke from fire contributes to background concentrations
of O3 in large areas of the U.S.
Ho2 – Fire/Smoke management can affect formation of O3.
Ho3 – Fire(s) cause/contribute to O3 exceedances.
Policy
Ho4 – Better quantitative information will help FLMs to assess
the use of smoke management techniques to address
nonattainment issues.
Ho5 – The Rank Order(s) in the Online Tool will help FLMs to
be more effective in the air quality planning processes.
Activity Data
FETS
Moisture
DEASCO3
Loading
distribute emissions
Chemical
Profiles
Loft emissions
Emissions
Model
• Ignited in August 2008
• Lull in burning activity of several weeks
• Common wildfire size range (3,000 acres)
•
NEIv2 method identifies
additional burns
• matches wildfire
acres with MTBS
• All wildfire burning
in August
•
DEASCO3 method
attributes all HMS data
to wildfire
• Misses some burn
days
• distributes acres
across Aug-Sep
Inventory
Events
Total Area, Acres
Gnarl Ridge
Fire Oregon
PM2.5, tons
# burn days
NEIv2
31
10,494 (3,502)
6,008 (1,985)
16
DEASCO3
1
3,497
1,614
10
http://www.wrapfets.org/pdf/deasco3/NEIC_tampa_mavko-moore_FINAL-REVISED.PDF
Methods in DEASCO3 to Test Hypotheses
• PGM
• Case Studies
& Sensitivity
modeling
• PGM, Obs
data, &
empirical
assessments
Ho1 - Fires
Contribute to
background
concentration
Ho3 - Fires
cause/
contribute to
O3
exceedance(s)
Ho2 and Ho4 SMPs : affect
O3 formation
and use to
address nonattainment
Ho5 - Rank
Order(s) will
help FLMs be
effective in air
quality
planning
• Paired PGM
results &
empirical
assessments
DEASCO3 datasets for Assessment Work
EI
PGM
Case
Studies
Source
Apport
Obs
Other
• 2002 (As-is)
• 2008 (refined)
• FINN (top down)
• 2002 (36 km)
• 2008 (12 km)
• Refined EI
• PGM (4km)
• OSAT
• PSAT
• AQS
• Castnet
• Trajectories
• Satellite Detects
Weighted Emissions Potential – example
empirical analysis tool
• WEP analysis was designed as a screening tool for states,
similar to but less rigorous than the PGM source
apportionment methods
– Does not explicitly account for chemistry and removal processes
– Integrates gridded emissions data, meteorological back trajectory
residence time data, a one-over-distance factor to approximate
deposition, and a normalization of the final results
X
Emissions
=
Residence Times
Weighted Emissions
19
Example CAMx PGM Source Apportionment
 Mass source apportionment by
source category and region
 Species mass for various time
periods – directly comparable to
monitoring data
20
Grey lines depict
HYSPLIT back- and
forward-trajectories
from an ozone
monitor in southern
Oregon and the
Biscuit fire
MTBS fire perimeters
for fires that started in
July 2002 are shown in
grey
Ozone concentrations
listed include the
modeled contribution
from fire (OSAT),
total modeled layer1
ozone, and observed
ozone at monitor
locations.
Prototype
Results
Display
for Online
Tool
Leveraging
Improved AQ
Planning
WestJump AQMS
DEASCO3
2008 and 2011 NEIv2
(USFS collaboration)
Except. Event
applications
PMDETAIL
Regional Photochemical Grid Modeling with
Ozone, PM2.5 and Visibility Source
Apportionment for the Western U.S.
WestJumpAQMS
• West-wide Jump-start Air Quality Modeling
Study (WestJumpAQMS) objectives:
– Initiate the next generation ozone and PM2.5 modeling
for the western U.S.
 Develop modeling platform that can be used for transport,
NAAQS and NEPA analysis
– Further a concept initiated by NMED, EPA R6, BLM,
BP and WRAP
– Continue approach developed and work performed by
WRAP Regional Modeling Center (RMC)
Overview of WestJumpAQMS Modeling Approach
•
•
•
•
2008 calendar year
WRF meteorological model
2008 NEIv2.0 emissions with augmentations
SMOKE emissions model
– WRAP updated MEGAN v2.10 for biogenics
– MOVES for on-road mobile sources
• CAMx and CMAQ photochemical grid models
• Ozone and PM Source Apportionment modeling to
begin to analyze transport issues
36/12/4 km WRF/SMOKE Domains
• 36 km CONUS Domain
• 12 km WESTUS Domain
• 4 km Inter-Mountain West
Processing Domain
(IMWPD)
– WRF meteorological and
SMOKE emissions model
run for the entire 4 km
IMWPD
– Photochemical Grid Model
(PGM) applied to smaller 4
km domains for source
apportionment (window)
2008 SMOKE Emission Categories
•
•
•
•
•
Continuous Emissions Monitor (CEM) Points
Non-CEM Points (2008 NEIv2.0)
Area and Non-Road (2008 NEIv2.0)
MOVES for on-road mobile sources
Oil and Gas WRAP Phase III projected to 2008
– Includes new Permian Basin (NM/TX)
• Fire Inventory from NCAR (FINN)
– Updated with DEASCO3 and PMDETAIL JSFP fire inventories
• WRAP Windblown Dust Model
• Lightning and Sea Salt
• MOZART boundary conditions
Model Performance Evaluation (MPE)
• Initial 36/12 km CAMx & CMAQ Runs
• Refined 36/12/4 km CAMx Runs
• Evaluation Databases:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
AQS: hourly gas-phase ozone, NO2, CO etc.
FRM: 24-hour total PM2.5 mass
CSN: 24-hour speciated PM2.5
IMPROVE: 24-hour speciated PM2.5
CASTNet: weekly speciated PM2.5 and hourly ozone
NADP: weekly sulfate and nitrate wet deposition
Ozonesonde: intermittent vertical ozone soundings
• FRM Network
FRM
IMPROVE
CSN
CASTNet
CAMx Source Apportionment Modeling
• APCA version of Ozone Source Apportionment
•
Technology (OSAT)
Particulate Source Apportionment Technology
(PSAT)
– Sulfate (SO4)
– Nitrate (NO3) and Ammonium (NH4)
– Primary PM (EC, OA, OPM2.5)
• Two Rounds of Source Apportionment Modeling
Level 1 APCA Ozone Source Apportionment
• CAMx 36/12 km – Ozone Season
• Western State Source Regions
• 2 Source Categories
– Anthropogenic
– Natural
Initial Source Apportionment Modeling
• Level 1 APCA Ozone: State Regions by Anthro-Natural
– Described Previously
• Level 2 OSAT Ozone: One Source Region and AnthroNatural
– Examine VOC-limited vs. NOX-limited O3 Formation
• Level 3 PSAT PM: State Regions/Anthro-Natural
– Like Level 1 only for PM (SO4, NO3/NH4 & Primary)
• Preliminary Results and Detailed Source Apportionment
Modeling Plan
– 2nd round of additional apportionment with more source
categories and/or sub-state spatial regions possible
On-Line Source Apportionment Visualization Tool
• Source Apportionment
•
modeling produces lots of
information
Extract key information at
sites and developed on-line
visualization tool
– AQS, IMPROVE, etc.
• Allow users to drill down
into Source Apportionment
results for sites and sources
of interest
• CENRAP Visualization Tool for
Regional Haze planning
– CAMx PSAT 36 km CONUS
– State-specific PM
– 2002 / 18 Visibility impacts at Class I
areas
– Example – Rocky Mountain National Park
Example non-WestJumpAQMS work - 2018 Worst 20%
Days at Rocky Mountain National Park
Source Categories by Species
Example non-WestJumpAQMS work - 2018 Worst 20%
Days at Rocky Mountain National Park
Species by Source Categories
Example non-WestJumpAQMS work - 2018 Worst 20%
Days at Rocky Mountain National Park
• Ranked Contributions by Source Region and Category
WestJumpAQMS Schedule
• 8-month delay getting started • Draft Modeling &
•
waiting for 2008 NEIV2.0
Products - WRAP webpage:
– http://www.wrapair2.org/WestJumpA
QMS.aspx
• Modeling Plan – 1/23/12
• WRF Evaluation Report
– 2/29/12
• 13 Emissions Memos
– Various Stages, complete March 2013
– Emissions modeling complete early
October 2012
Source Apportionment
Protocol
– Review and comment
complete in February 2013
• 2008 Base Case
Modeling
– complete early 2013
• Source Apportionment
Rounds 1 and 2
– March / April 2013
• Final Report
– May / June 2013