Water scarcity in the Arab world: how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’? Rania el Masri, Ph.D. Environment and Energy Policy Specialist Cairo, May 8, 2012 2 State of our water commons 3 Total renewable water resources per capita, 1958-2007 (m3/capita/yr) Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Mauritania Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia UAE Yemen 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 4 Total renewable water resources per capita (2008) (m3/capita/yr) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Water scarcity level (< 1000) 1000 Water Crisis level (< 500) 500 0 Absolute water scarcity level (< 165) 5 Total renewable water resources per capita (2008 and 2016) (m3/capita/yr) 4,000.00 3,500.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 Water scarcity level (< 1000) Water Crisis level (< 500) 500.00 Absolute water scarcity level (< 165) - 6 20000 18000 Freshwater availability: 1955-2025 (m3/capita/yr) 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1955 1990 2000 2025 7 Annual per capita water supply; 1960-1999; projections for 2025 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1960 1999 2025 8 Available Renewable Water Resources per capita, 1950 annual per capita water supply (m3/capita/yr) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 9 Population Percent change, 1961-2007 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 10 Although fertility rates in the Arab world are declining… Total fertility in the Arab world: 1970 - 2010 11 Population growth (millions): 1970 - 2025 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 2001 2025 12 population growth: 1950-2050 Arab region: among the fastest population growth rates (> 2%/year) GCC population: to double by 2040 Maghreb population: to double by 2060 13 State of our water commons Decreasing supply Aquifers and groundwater heavily mined Increasing demand (decreasing supply per capita) Population growth Increasing urbanization, Increasing economic and social demands Plus Projected impacts of climate change decreasing supply and increasing demand 14 Impact of climate change on water availability in Middle East and North Africa in 2050 Source: Milly et al., published in Nature. 15 State of our water commons: leakage 16 Water supply and uses For the Near East as a region, it is estimated that only 30% of the flood water used in irrigation ever reaches the crop. (UNDP, HDR2006) 17 Area equipped for irrigation Rainfed cultivated area 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Although irrigated agriculture accounts for more than 80% of water use in the region, irrigated areas are limited and represent only 29% of the arable lands and 32% of the cultivated areas Iraq Libya Syria Saudi Arabia Sudan UAE Egypt Morocco Tunisia Yemen Lebanon Somalia Oman Algeria Qatar Mauritania Jordan Bahrain Kuwait Djibouti 0 18 Unaccounted-for Water (%) (2010) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: World Water Intelligence, 2011 19 Impacts of our water crisis 20 Impact of water crisis: who gets water? 70 60 Population without access to improved water sources (2010) 50 40 30 20 10 UAE Qatar Lebanon Kuwait Egypt Jordan Comoros Tunisia Syria Oman Djibouti OPT Morocco Algeria Iraq Sudan Yemen Libya Mauritania Somalia 0 100 90 Internal differences in access to improved water sources (2010) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Djibouti Iraq Morocco Oman Rural Somalia Urban Sudan Yemen 21 Impact of water crisis: whose water is clean? 80 70 Population without access to improved sanitation facilities (2010) 60 50 40 30 20 10 Qatar Lebanon Kuwait Oman UAE Jordan Libya Syria Egypt Algeria OPT Tunisia Iraq Morocco Yemen Djibouti Comoros Sudan Mauritania Somalia 0 100 90 80 Internal differences in access to improved sanitation facilities (2010) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Rural Urban 22 (Potential) impacts of decreased supply and Increased demand Direct impacts … increased cost … decreased quality (eg: increased salinization) Indirect impacts … increased poverty … increased health risks …risk to livelihoods in agricultural sector Decreased ecosystem health 23 Responses to our water crisis: getting to sustainable 24 DRIVERS HUMAN SOCIETY Population growth PRESSURES Increased consumption IMPACTS Increased resource exploitation RESPONSES Climate change Mitigation and adaptation Agricultural mismanagement State: water security crisis Decreasing supply Decreasing quality ENVIRONMENT Human well-being: Economic, Ecosystem social services goods & Farmer services liveilhoods 25 Current Responses Desalination Privatization GCC: more than 50% of their domestic water use consumption comes from desalination Energy usage: drinking oil? Impact on marine life UAE, Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco: PPP Bottled water consumption (UAE and Lebanon) Risk of cost Reuse of drainage water Practiced on a large scale in Egypt More limited scale in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria 26 Additional necessary responses Reduce consumption (from repairing infrastructure to family planning) Develop a water commons Develop fair pricing – not ‘full cost recovery’ Plan for all water resources in a comprehensive package Sequential water use Wise agricultural management (from exporting virtual water to farmer support) Water as a human right 27 DRIVERS HUMAN SOCIETY Population growth Increased consumption PRESSURES IMPACTS Increased resource exploitation Climate change Agricultural mismanagement RESPONSES • Reduce consumption • Develop a water commons • Water as a human right State: water security crisis Decreasing supply Decreasing quality ENVIRONMENT Human well-being: Economic, Ecosystem social services goods & Farmer services liveilhoods 28 Water under occupation and apartheid: Palestine Theft of Palestinian Water 29