21-January-15 | 1
Enhancing resilience while
maintaining efficiency:
Planning and human decisionmaking for the unpredictable
› Dirk Pieter van Donk
› Gerben van der Vegt
› Kirstin Scholten
› Peter Essens
› Thom de Vries
21-January-15 | 2
Why do we need resilience?
Costs of disruptions over 12 months
(157 companies, 2013)
15%
>€1mln
7%
45%
8%
€500,000-€1mln
€250,000-€500,000
€50,000-€250,000
25%
<€50,000
Urgent need to better deal with
disruptions & uncertainty
Number of people
affected by natural
disasters 1900-2011
21-January-15 | 3
Why do we need to research resilience?
• How are supply chains affected by disruption?
Sustainability
• What is resilience at a supply
chain level?
• Vertical
• Horizontal
• Diagonal
 How can decision making across the supply chain
contribute to effective rebound and resilience ?
21-January-15 | 4
Relating disruptions and resilience
prevention
rebound
adaptation
response
21-January-15 | 5
Balancing resilience and efficiency
Sustainability
Resilience
• High inventory
• Redundant capacity
• High costs
Effective decision making during disruptions
and rebound along the supply chain improves
resilience while maintaining efficiency
Efficiency
• Lean
• Little inventory
• Low Costs
21-January-15 | 6
› Understanding disruptions and
supply chain resilience
Across chains, information and decisions
Scientific contribution
Raw Material
Factory
DC’s
› Understanding group decision
making for supply chain resilience
• Experimenting with real-life
disruptions
• Design and analyse decision making structures
• Cooperation within chains and in networks (4Cs)
Information
Decision
Information
Information
Decision
Retail
Information
Decision
Along a chain (Scope)
Adds supply chain reality to organizational
behaviour & in-depth organizational
behaviour to SCM
Decision
21-January-15 | 7
PhD
Empirical data collection
Postdoc 1
Behaviour and decison making;
different coordination modes
Postdoc 2
Realistic disruption scenarios
Consortium
Awareness for companies,
practice decision making
TNO,
Research centers
Consortium
Demonstrations, Training
Publications, Webinars
RuG, TNO
Crisis management domain,
Teaching
21-January-15 | 8
Building the training tool
› Experiment with
• Coordination modes
• Team composition
• Personality traits
› Build realistic scenarios of disruptions from cases
› What are effective interventions:
• Management structure: central vs decentral
• Creating awareness
• Communication media
• Cross training
21-January-15 | 9
Valorisation
› TNO: Experienced in applying scientific results to practice
• Serious game for Majors, Resilience for defence forces
• PLATT
› Consortium partners: Solution/application orientation
• Oversupply of milk
• Lower inventories with vulnerable supply chains
• Asset renewal with multiple suppliers while assuring
drink water supply
› Started with master thesis projects