REVISITING SECURITY AND ENERGY GEOPOLITICS OF SOUTH CAUCASUS: A TURKISH PERSPECTIVE Assoc. Prof. Atilla Sandıklı, President of BILGESAM Erdem Kaya, Research Fellow at BILGESAM THE LOCATION OF THE CAUCASUS THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AT REGIONAL AND GLOBAL STAGE • US and EU • Euro-Atlantic security system • NATO’s eastward enlargement • Russia’s return • The Eurasian Union & Customs Union • Turkey-Iran rivalry • Iran-Israel rivalry REASONS THAT MAKE THE REGION IMPORTANT FOR TURKEY • Security risks emanating from the unsettled disputes • Rivalry on energy resources and routes SECURITY RISKS • The Armenian invasion of Azerbaijani territories • Armenia has no future plan to withdraw from the NagornoKarabakh and adjacent regions • Security Council resolutions do not work • Minsk Group is not effective • International community has no pressure on Armenia • Russian mediation helps the Armenian side SECURITY RISKS • Separatist regions in Georgia: Abkhazia and South Ossetia • The new status quo in the aftermath of the August War of 2008 • The entities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia survive under Russian protection RIVALRY ON ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES • Competition over the operation and delivery routes of Caspian oil and gas resources • Russia’s efforts to stay monopoly and resurgence to control the routes • Azeri oil and gas, Kazakh oil, Turkmen gas • Europe’s search for different suppliers • Western companies’ involvement RIVALRY ON ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES • Baku-Supsa oil pipeline, Baku-TbilisiCeyhan oil pipeline, Baku-TbilisiErzurum gas pipeline RIVALRY ON ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES • Russia’s policy of disuniting Europe, Nord Stream, South Stream pipeline projects • Nabucco project turned out to be impossible • TANAP project TURKEY AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS • Turkey-AzerbaijanGeorgia relations improved • Energy links increased • Cooperation in defense industry is developing • A trilateral group is emerging TURKEY AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS • Reconciliation attempt in 2009 between Turkey and Armenia • Temporary chill between Turkey and Azerbaijan • Protocols could not produce results ARMENIA’S GOALS FOR 2015 • Armenia’s claims regarding the 1915 evens • Diaspora’s activities • Preparations for the 2015, the first anniversary of the 1915 events • Attitude of US Congress • Armenia will try to secure Vatican’s and pro-Israeli lobbies for the 2015 goals ARMENIA’S BUDDING TALYSH POLICY • Armenia’s Talysh policy against Azerbaijan • Pro-Talysh propaganda • Iran’s support PKK/KCK IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS • PKK/KCK’s activities in Armenia and NagornoKarabakh • Fund-raising activities • PKK/KCK operates in South Caucasus under the guise of seemingly civilian institutions, associations and foundations. • Attempt to recruit Yezidis in Armenia • Certain Armenian political parties are known to have links with the terrorist PKK/KCK END OF THE PRESENTATION