EU Energy Import Diversification Policy (South Caucasus)
In the pursuit for alternative sources of gas and oil, one of the options sought by the European Union
is to turn to Central Asia. The post-Soviet sphere has the world’s biggest layers of natural gas and big
amounts of oil, with 35.4 percent of the former and 7.5 percent of the latter lies under the postSoviet soil, in particular in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Further facilitated by the
energy crises between Russia and Ukraine in 2006 and 2009, the EU is seeking to avoid the
dependence on energy supplies being delivered by the Russian Federation. Southern Caucasus
countries, Armenia and Georgia in particular, offer the only alternative to pipelines crossing the
Russian territory.
This presentation focuses on Southern Caucasus region and its importance for the EU energy import
diversification policy. It examines the cases of all three Southern Caucasus countries – Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Georgia. It also underlines a high level of instability of the region, caused by both
internal and external factors, threatening any energy transit initiative, including the EU-flagship
project of the Nabucco pipeline. The internal instability is being caused by the authoritarian regimes
of all three countries, where a peaceful transition of power as a consequence of free and fair
elections is highly improbable. The external factors are related mainly to the three big neighbours of
the Southern Caucasus – Russian Federation, Turkey and Iran, in particular over the Abkhazian and
South Ossetian conflicts, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, the issue of the Armenian genocide and
finally the case of Azerbaijani minority in Iran. All of these destabilize the whole region of Southern
Caucasus, questioning whether any EU energy initiative of linking Central Asia with EU markets is
realistic.