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The Way Forward
Innovating Together to Cut Poverty
June 5, 2013
The case for monitoring poverty
and inequality … frequently
Introduce the Report Card
Reducing poverty through targeted
interventions
Evaluating the effectiveness of targeted
interventions
Monitoring progress and changing the
conversation about poverty
The structure of poverty changes
(sometimes quickly)
Getting poverty in the news … often
Demonstrating that policies have
effects
Allows for real-time response
Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, and Erin Cumberworth, Recession Trends (www.recessiontrends.org),
Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, and Erin Cumberworth, Recession Trends (www.recessiontrends.org),
Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
Source: “Rising Extreme Poverty in the United States and the Response of Federal Means-Tested
Transfer Programs,” Luke Shaefer and Kathy Edin
Absolute deterioration in
employment situation of
poor
Predates recession
Source: Recession Trends initiative (www.recessiontrends.org,
Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, Erin Cumberworth)
Poverty increases most in
high poverty metropolitan
areas
Source: Recession Trends initiative (www.recessiontrends.org,
Robert Sampson and Ann Owens)
Even if poverty were unchanging
we need to keep talking about it
Create regularized events that
become news in and of
themselves
The plan
Quarterly measurement
Annual report card
Individuals over age 15 with family incomes
below SPM threshold
Children living in nonworking poverty families
Black
Hispanic
White
Asian
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Tale of two measures
Unemployment measures: Once a month
Poverty measures: Once a year (and outdated at moment of release)
2012
Not some complicated
puzzle (like finding
cure for cancer)
We know what to do
And it’s been done
• In the U.K.
• Even here
Sheldon Danziger, Koji Chavez, and Erin Cumberworth, Recession Trends (www.recessiontrends.org),
Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act (ARRA):
Would it have reduced poverty
had it been applied in 2008?
Answer: By 1.3 points (via tax
credit expansions, additional
payments to Social Security
recipients, SNAP benefit
increases)
An ongoing macroeconomic
response (as with unemployment)?
A national day of reckoning … a national scandal and
shared problem
Comparisons
• Over time
• Across states and counties
The power of grading
Tie-ins
•
•
Pathways Magazine
Poverty and inequality briefs (see
www.recessiontrends.org)
Quick response teams
Challenges
• Sample size
• Bay Area heterogenity
• Reconciling with Road Map
Qualitative studies of poverty have been
immensely important in uncovering
experience of poverty
One-shot tradition of qualitative
analysis makes monitoring trend
impossible
Solution: Qualitative trend
measurement
President Obama vowed to
“build new ladders of
opportunity into the middle
class” in his 2013 address
Ways to move forward
1. Administrative data (i.e., IRS)
2. Adding intergenerational
module to existing survey (e.g.,
ACS ,CPS, SIPP)
The SPM revolution in
poverty measurement
But we need to develop local
SPM measures
The rise of experiments:
Laboratory, resume, and audit
studies of labor market discrimination have revolutionized field
But limited to one-shot studies
Need standardized protocol
administered at regular intervals
•
•
Which types of discrimination are
most prominent? Race, gender,
motherhood status, poverty status,
criminal record, sexual orientation,
credit record
Which types are becoming stronger
or weaker?
Major social problem of our time
Engaged ivory tower
Powerful union of science and
action … a new smart war on
poverty