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Using predictive analytics to drive game personalisation
February 2012
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• Who we are
• What is analytics?
• Predictive modelling and player segmentation
• Building personalised experiences
• A big brother future?
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• 30 + years games industry experience
• 15+ years dedicated to online & mobile games
• 15+ years data analytics experience with finance and retail sectors
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Analytics is the process of developing optimal or realistic decision recommendations based on insights derived through the application of statistical models and analysis against existing and/or simulated future data – wikipedia
Analytics is not
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• Challenges
• Big data
• Complex player behaviours
• Multiple monetisation mechanics
• Overly focusing on whales
• Making the data drive value
• Never mind being expensive, resource and data intensive…slightly mind-bending and probably just a fad…
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• They almost never give you the information you actually need to action anything useful
• They tell you about the average player
• They tell you old information
• They always look like this
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1.
Trial two versions and see which is most popular
2.
Pick the most popular and roll it out to everyone
3.
Repeat.
• One size fits all
• The Horizon Effect ….
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• Originated from web analysis
• Great for linear progress and identifying ‘leaks’
• Cohort analysis
• Multiple gameplay routes
• Multiple monetisation mechanics
• Works for simple social games
• By its nature does not recognise multiple player types or non-linear gameplay
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• Behavioural Segmentation
• Social Analytics
• Predictive Modelling
• Real time in game messaging
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• A game’s player base is made up of lots of different player types
• Each person is experiencing the same game differently
• Understanding player behaviours is vital
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5%
0.19
9%
$2.38
7%
0.55%
36%
$0.75
31%
0.89%
22%
$1.75
25%
1.30%
26%
$2.21
14%
0.97
21%
$1.94
12%
0.86
59%
$3.57
6%
2.34%
57%
$4.40
Revenue Potential
%Volume
%Paying
7Day Ret
CAC
Early Enthusiasts
Confident Completers
Social Involver
Sporadic SemiEngaged
Losing Momentum
Need Guidance
Borderline Incompetent
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• Once you understand your different players…
• …You can start to predict what they want
• and use this information to deliver immediate player value
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• Core predictive models in SAS & R
• Multi-variant models can include 100+ separate variables
• Each model allows you to target a set of users precisely
• High propensity to take up the offer
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Variable Contribution
0,25
0,2
0,15
24 Hours +
Gameplay 0,1
High %
GiftedItem
Total
Stamina
5000+
0,05
0
1
Level 7-12
2
Fighting
Events
3 4
Accepted
Invite
5 6
High PVP
7 8
Low
Mission
Completion
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• Score model at key points in the game
• Start of Session
• Start of Mission
• After Mission Failed
• Select players who have high model score (high likelihood to purchase)
• Send message with offer/incentive
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Start 150 Events
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500 Events
Country
Age
Gender
Level Momentum,
Average Seconds Per
Event, Socialness,
Features Consumed
Apply Model at
150 Events.
Treat High
Scores with
Targeted
Messages
Analysis
Period
Detailed Events:
Quests Completed,
Purchase Behaviour,
Organising Tasks,
Specific Missions
Defectors and Engaged players behave differently in 1 st 20 minutes
Predict likelihood to defect and invoke retention activities before it is too late
Early Defectors
Defectors
Engaged
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• Games data collection benefits from huge amounts of rich behavioural information
• (When event collection is applied correctly)
• Each individual player creates a complex decision path
• Information can be mined and used to optimise gameplay
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• Game design is generally focused on creating a great game
• We need to look at it from the player perspective
• Predictive analytics enables you to understand and identify behaviours to adapt gameplay to the player’s personal profile
• Creating great personalised gameplay experience
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• Data protection
• Privacy
• Exploitation of user profiles
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• Analytics provides a huge opportunity to deliver personal gaming experiences
• Using the power of data for good
• A new concept in game design
• An incredibly powerful way of dynamically altering games
• Adapting a game to players behaviour in real time
• Player satisfaction delivers increased revenues
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Any Questions?
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