16th JISR-IIASA Workshop on Methodologies and Tools for
Complex System Modeling and Integrated Policy Assessment
July 15-17, 2002, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Systemic Thinking to Developing a
Meta-Synthetic Support for
Complex Issues
Xijin Tang
Institute of Systems Science
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Sciences
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 P.R.CHINA
Contents
• Approaches to Complex Problems Solving
• Meta-Synthesis Method
• Developing Meta-Synthetic Tool for
Complex Problem Solving
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Customers
 Man-Machine Meta-Synthetic Support for
Macroeconomic Decision Making
 A Major Project by Natural Science Foundation
of China (1999-2003）
 Computerized Support for Comprehensive
Assessment of Weapon System
 A Defense Innovation Project by Chinese
Academy of Sciences（2001-2002)
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Complex Problems
• Socioeconomic Problem
• Sustainable Development
• Evaluation of large project especially R&D
Projects
Semi-Structured or Unstructured problems
Open Complex Giant System (Qian, 1990)
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Purposes
When facing unknown problems,
– does current framework of resources (Models,
Knowledge) still work?
– how to utilize current framework of knowledge and
models?
– how to integrate current resources ?
– how to create new knowledge or models based on
experts’ wisdom and ready framework of models with
new data and information?
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Approaches to
Complex Problem Solving
• Hard System Approaches
• Soft System Approaches
Hard OR vs. Soft OR
Hard System Analysis vs. Soft System Analysis
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Modeling Strategic Problem
• Strategic Choice (J. K. Friend)
• Soft Systems Methodology (P. Checkland)
• Journey Making (previously known as
SODA & Cognitive Mapping) developed by
Colin Eden and colleagues at the
Universities of Bath and Strathclyde
• Dialog Mapping
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Comparisons between Hard
and Soft System Approaches
Hard system approach
systematic world
end-means scheme
optimization  satisfaction
content-oriented
positive-empirical models
do the thing right
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•
•
•
•
•
Soft system approach
systemic mind
participation/debate
learning  satisfying
process-oriented
interpretive methods
do the right thing
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Modern Oriental
System Approaches
• Shinayakana system approach (Sawaragi, etc. Japan,
90s)
– i-System: Intelligence, Imagination, Involvement,
Integration and Intervention
• Meta-synthesis from qualitative to quantitative
approach (Qian, et al. China, 90s)
– Hall for Workshop of Meta-Synthetic Engineering
(HWMSE)
• Wu-li Shi-li Ren-li System Approach (Gu, et al. 90s)
• Spiral System Methodology (Wang, China, 90s)
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Systems Approach to
Problem-Solving
Cultural
Facet
Systemic
Facet
Technological
Facet
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Meta-Synthesis Method
• Above meta-analysis method
• Data, information, models, knowledge
• From qualitative (expert knowledge and wisdom) to
quantitative (quantitative analysis)
• Making full use of breaking advances in IT
• Formulating confident hypothesis vs. To be
precisely tested, verified, and validated.
• Workshop or Seminars for discussion and debate
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A Practical Example
Research on Man-Machine cooperated MetaSynthetic Engineering System Supporting
Macro Economy Decision-Making
• A NSFC Major Project
• 12 units, > 50 people
• 4-year (99.06-03.06)
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Project Organization
Master Coordinating
Group (0)
Environment
Group (1)
Economy
Group (2)
IA, CAS
BIIC
RMU
SDPC
HUST
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Method
Group (3)
ISS, CAS
XJTU
SHTU
BNU
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Over=all
Design Group
KDD and Cognition
Group (4)
Tsinghua
BISE
IP, CAS
IA, CAS
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Issues during Project
Implementation
• Multiple views, multi-institution
involvement, multiple disciplines
• Lack coordinating endeavors
• Lack of actionable framework
 Utilization of ready resources
 Bottom-up research achievements
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Bottom-up Research
Halls for MetaSynthesis
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Some Methods and
Computerzied Support
•
•
•
•
•
•
Brainstorming
Delphi
Voting
AHP
Other MCDM methods
Nominal Group Techniques
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Final Product?
?
Databases,
Methods,
Models,
Tools,
Halls for Metasynthesis
Input
Output
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What will NSFC see?
Meta-Synthesis Practice
– Aggregation of resources
– One centralized hall / component-based
– Distributed rooms / agent-based
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Outcome?
Cultural
Facet
Systemic
Facet
Technological
Facet
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Functions
• Communication, Collaboration and
Consensus building
• Group Thinking
• Group Decision Making
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Group Work Activities
Communication
Various
Knowledge
Various Issues
Collaboration
New
Knowledge
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Consensus
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Resolution
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Divergent and
Convergent Thinking
Knowledge Creation
Knowledge Synthesis
Convergent Thinking
Divergent Thinking
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Knowledge Creation
Knowledge Synthesis
Convergent Thinking
Divergent Thinking
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Group Thinking Model
Individual
Thinking
Cooperative
Thinking
Individual
Thinking
Group as a
Thinking
Entity
Mase, et al .(1998)
Individual
Thinking
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Collaborative
Thinking
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Group 1
Main Room (IA)
Discussion
Room (XJTU)
Group 3
Economic
Models (SJTU)
Group 2
Models
Tools
System
Reconstruction
Model (ISS)
Discussion
Room (ISS)
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Economic
Models (BIIC)
Discussion
Room (HUST)
Room Beijing
(BISE)
DB
Group 4
KDD Models
(Tsinghua)
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Group Argumentation Template
• Electronic Brainstorming Room (BAR)
– Personal Viewer
– Common Viewer (Seminar Blackboard)
– Information View (Searching Engine)
• Automatic Affinity Diagramming
• Nominal Group Technique (NGT)
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Common Viewer
Personal View
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