The Impact of Current Levels of
Migration
No to 70 million
June 2014
UK Population Today
The UK population in mid-2013 was 64.1 million.
 According to the Government projections that this will
hit 70 million by mid-2027 and 80 million around 2063.
 Of this increase, 60% will be the result of immigration,
made up of both future migrants and their children.
 These projections are based on net migration of
165,000 a year. However, average net migration over
the last 10 years was 238,000.
 If net migration is allowed to continue at present levels,
the population of the UK will reach 70 million in 2026
and will increase by 10 million in 20 years.

Net Migration to the UK has, since 1997,
been on an entirely new scale…
Net Migration to the UK 1975 - 2013, thousands, ONS.
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1975
-50
-100
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Public Opinion has responded…
Percentage of the public polled by Ipsos MORI who
think Immigration is one of the three most important
issues facing Britain, 1974-2014
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
1974
1977
1978
1979
1980
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
Public Opinion cont.




77% think that the number of immigrants coming to
Britain should be reduced, 56% by a lot
79% of people in England believe that England is
overcrowded, 37% saying it is very overcrowded.
79% believe that the UK population is too high.
76% believe that immigration has placed too much
pressure on public services such as health,
transport and education.
Population Projections
UK Population Projections 2012-2051, millions, ONS.
82
80
High 225k
78
76
74
Principal 165k
72
70
68
Balanced (No
net migration)
66
64
62
2012
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
2051
Implications for Projected Household
Formation
36%
Migration
64%
More single
housholds and
pensioners
Migration accounts for over a third of projected additional future
household formation, requiring 200 homes to be built every day for
the next 20 years, or one every 7 minutes.
Where do net migrants come from?
Traditionally most net migration to the UK has
been from outside the EU but this has been
declining over the last decade.
 Meanwhile EU migration has been increasing
and is now almost at a similar level.
 There has always been a net outflow of British
citizens which in recent years has averaged
around 50,000 a year.

Who are the net migrants?
Immigration to the UK by Reason
Non-EU IPS Immigration by Reason, 2004-2013, thousands.
200
Study
180
160
140
Work
120
100
Accompany/Join
80
60
40
Other/No reason
stated
20
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Immigration to the UK by Reason cont.


Student inflow increased sharply in 2008 due to
changes to the immigration system. A sharp fall in
recent years is due to a crackdown on abuse,
largely in the FE sector. University applications have
increased by 17% since 2010.
Work migration fell in 2007 largely due to the
recession and is now capped at 20,700.
Asylum Applications and Grants, 1984-2012
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
Total applications for asylum
40,000
Grants of Asylum, HP and DL
30,000
20,000
10,000
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
Asylum
Applications for asylum are now running at
around 20,000 per year which is only 10% of
net migration.
 60% of asylum applicants are found to not have
a claim, even after an appeal hearing.
 50% of applicants claim asylum only after
detection.

Migration Policy
Net migration must eventually be brought down
to around 40,000 per year if the UK population
is to be stabilised.
 Non-EU net migration has fallen by a third since
2010 and is now around 140,000 a year. Further
reductions are needed.
 EU migration has risen sharply in recent years
to 125,000 a year. Some modification of EU free
movement will be necessary, at least for as long
as immigration pressures persist.

What can continue…
Free movement of genuine students who
leave at the end of their studies.
 Adequate scope for key workers from
overseas to fill skills gaps while British
workers are trained.
 Refuge for genuine asylum seekers.

A properly managed immigration
system…






Balances the need for a competitive economy with the costs
of a rapidly growing population.
Should provide, as the House of Lords Economic Affairs
Committee recommended, a “reasoned target range for net
immigration” to which immigration policies could be
adjusted.
Reduces pressure on the environment, NHS, schools and
transport.
Encourages British industry and commerce to train British
workers.
Improves the prospects for integrating newcomers into
society.
Reduces the drain of talented and educated people from the
developing who need their skills more than we do.
Sources and References









Population Estimates – ONS
Household Formation – English Housing Survey 2008
Population Projections – ONS
Public Opinion – Ipsos MORI
Immigration Statistics – ONS Migration Statistics Quarterly
Reports
Asylum Applications and Grants – Home Office Statistics
Visa Statistics – Home Office Statistics
PQ on Asylum Claims, - Frank Field, Hansard, 15 October 2013,
c642W.
Opinion Poll URLs: http://migrationwatchuk.com/excel/yougov-071111.xls,
http://populationmatters.org/2011/population-matters-news/people-uk-populationhigh/?phpMyAdmin=e11b8b687c20198d9ad050fbb1aa7f2f,
http://www.slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/ipsos-global-dvisor-22-attitudes-to-immigration-july-2011 ,
http://www.bsa-31.natcen.ac.uk/read-the-report/immigration/introduction.aspx