Economics of Strategy Fifth Edition Besanko, Dranove, Shanley, and Schaefer Chapter 9 Strategic Commitment Slides by: Richard Ponarul, California State University, Chico Copyright 2010 John Wiley Sons, Inc. Strategic Commitment Strategic commitments have long run impact and are hard to reverse Strategic commitments can affect choices made by rivals Assessing strategic commitments involves anticipating market rivalry Strategic Commitment Inflexibility can add value Strategic commitment limits options but alters competitors’ expectations Strategic commitment can make a simultaneous move game into a sequential move game Payoffs in the Simple Strategy Selection Game Firm 2 Aggressive Passive Aggressive 12.5, 4.5 16.5, 5 Passive 15, 6.5 18, 6 Firm 1 Net present values are in millions of dollars. First payoff listed is firm 1’s; second is firm 2’s. Unique Nash equilibrium: Firm 1 passive and Firm 2 aggressive Sequential Move Game Firm 1 commits itself to be aggressive Firm 2 finds that it is better of choosing to be passive given firm 1’s commitment Resulting equilibrium has a bigger payoff for firm 1 compared to what it had in the simultaneous move game Strategic Commitment To achieve the desired result, the commitment should be Visible Understandable Credible To be credible, the commitment should be irreversible Strategic Commitment Moves that represent commitment: Capacity expansion with investment in relationship specific assets Contracts with clauses such as most favored customer clause Public announcements provided the reputation of the firm/management will suffer when not backed by action The move should be difficult to stop once set in motion Strategic Commitment & Competition Concepts to describe how a firm reacts to price/quantity change by a competitor Strategic complements Strategic substitutes Concepts that distinguish between actions by a firm that puts its competitors at a disadvantage and those that do not Tough commitments Soft commitments Strategic Complements When a firm’s action induces the rival to take the same action the actions are strategic complements In Bertrand duopoly model prices are strategic complements A price cut is the profit maximizing response to competitor’s price cut The reaction function is upward sloping Strategic Substitutes When a firm’s action induces the rival to take the opposite action the actions are strategic substitutes In Cournot duopoly model quantities are strategic substitutes A quantity increase is the profit maximizing response to competitor’s quantity reduction Reaction function slopes downward Strategic Substitutes and Complements Incentives to Make Commitments Commitments affect the present value of the firm’s profits Direct effect: Due entirely to its own tactical decisions Strategic effect: Due to the effect on the tactical decisions of the competitors The strategic effect can be positive or negative depending on the choice variables being strategic complements or strategic substitutes Tough Commitments and Soft Commitments A tough commitment hurts the competitors while a soft commitment helps them Tough commitment conforms to the traditional view of competition A soft commitment may be beneficial if the strategic effect of the commitment is sufficiently positive The Value of Soft Commitments A firm that makes a soft commitment to raise its price may experience a negative direct effect on its profitability If the optimal response of the rival is to raise its price, the strategic effect can be beneficial If the strategic effect is sufficiently large, the net benefit from the commitment will be positive An Analysis of Soft and Tough Commitments The market has two firms and decisions are made in two stages In the first stage Firm 1 makes either a soft commitment or a tough commitment The second stage competition between the rivals will be either Cournot or Bertrand Cournot After Tough Commitment Firm 1 commits to a higher than previous output for every output choice of the rival Firm 2’s reaction function makes the equilibrium output of Firm 1 even higher Firm 2 produces less than what it used to produce. “Tough” in a Cournot Market Cournot After Soft Commitment Firm 1 shifts its reaction function to the left, committing to produce less (than precommitment level) for every level of rival’s output Rival’s reaction hurts Firm 1 by making its output fall further Firm 2 produces more than what it produced without Firm 1’s soft commitment “Soft” in a Cournot Market Scenarios to be Analyzed First Stage Second Stage Soft Cournot Soft Bertrand Tough Cournot Tough Bertrand Bertrand After Tough Commitment Firm 1 commits to a lower price by shifting its reaction function to the left Firm 2’s reaction further lowers the equilibrium price Both firms end up being hurt by Firm 1’s tough commitment “Tough” in a Bertrand Market Bertrand After Soft Commitment Firm 1 commits to charge a higher (than the pre-commitment level) price for every price level picked by the rival Firm 2’s reaction provides a even higher price (for both firms) Both firms benefit from Firm 1’s soft commitment “Soft” in a Bertrand Market Strategic Effects of the Commitments Firm 1’s Commitment Soft Soft Tough Tough Second Stage Competition Cournot Bertrand Cournot Bertrand Strategic Effect on Firm 1 Negative Positive Positive Negative Flexibility and Options The value of commitments lies in creating inflexibility However, when there is uncertainty, flexibility is valuable since future options are kept open Commitments can sacrifice the value of the options Commitment-Flexibility Tradeoff By waiting, a firm preserves its option values By waiting, the firm also may allow its competitors to make preemptive investments Example: Philips decides to delay its CD manufacturing plant in the U.S., allowing Sony to build its plant first Preserving Flexibility Modify the commitment as conditions evolve Delay commitment until better information is available on profitability Make unprofitable commitments today to preserve valuable options in the future Flexibility and Real Options A real option exists if future information can be used to tailor decisions Better information about demand can be utilized by delaying implementation of projects Value of real options may be limited by the risk of preemption Key managerial skill in spotting valuable real options