Procedia
Social and
Behavioral
Sciences
Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 00 (2011) 000–000
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
Transport Research Arena– Athens 2012
Mode shift as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Bo-Lennart Nelldal *, Evert Andersson †
Adjunct Professor, KTH Traffic and Logistics, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden
Professor em, KTH Aeronautical and Vehicle Engineering, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden
Abstract
Forecasts indicate that it is not possible to reduce total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from
transport to fulfil the target of two degrees global warming with technology means alone. It is possible to
reduce GHG-emissions for all modes but still rail will be the most efficient mode by 2050. Rail has a
modest market share in the EU in comparison with ‘best practice’ rail systems in the world. There is a big
potential if the rail system is developed with new high speed rail and freight corridors as well as an
upgraded conventional network and intermodal systems.
This paper presents an estimation of the effects of a partial mode shift to rail transport applying
world’s ‘best practice’ by the year 2050. It is shown that such a mode shift to rail can reduce EU transport
GHG emissions over land by about 20 %, compared with a baseline scenario. In combination with lowcarbon electricity production a reduction of about 30 % may be achieved. A developed rail system can
thus substantially contribute to the EU target of reducing GHG emissions in the transport sector by 60 %
below 1990 levels. To enable such a mode shift and to manage the demand for capacity, there is a need of
investments. This will also maintain and increase mobility for passengers and freight transport.
© 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of TRA 2012
Keywords: Mode shift; greenhouse gas; GHG; rail; passenger transport; freight transport; infrastructure investment; EC white paper
Nomenclature
passkm passenger kilometres
tonkm
tonnes-kilometres
TOSCA Technology Opportunities and Strategies toward Climate-friendly transport (EU funded project)
*
Bo-Lennart Nelldal Tel. +46 70 762 3056; fax: +46 8 21 28 29.
E-mail address: bo-lennart.nelldal@abe.kth.se.
†
Evert Andersson. Tel.:+46 8 790 7628; fax:+46 8 790 7629.
E-mail address: everta@kth.se, evertan@telia.com.
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Nelldal-Andersson: Mode shift as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
1. Introduction
To achieve a sustainable society, the target within the EU is to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions by 80-95% from the 1990 level. A reduction of at least 60% is required from the transport
sector, EC (2011). Since GHG emissions from EU transport (excl international bunkers) have increased
by approx 26% from 1990 [2], the target from 2010 will be 68%. At the same time, there is also a target
within the EU to maintain or increase mobility for passengers and freight.
On 28 March 2011 the European Commission published a white paper entitled “Roadmap to a Single
European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system”. EC has a
vision of a long-term-sustainable transport system with the aim of attaining the goals set for reducing the
transport sector’s emissions. Important goals and measures for the rail mode are described below.
- 30% of road freight over 300 km should shift to other modes such as rail or waterborne transport by
2030, and more than 50% by 2050, facilitated by efficient, green freight corridors.
- By 2050, a European high-speed rail network should be completed. Triple the length of the existing
high-speed rail network by 2030 and maintain a dense railway network in all Member States. By
2050 the majority of medium-distance passenger transport should go by rail.
As can be seen from this, rail transportation plays an important role in the EU’s future transport policy to
attain the dual goals of maintained or increased mobility and reduced emissions.
2. Related research
A paper by Anable et al (2010) deals with scenarios for passenger transport in the UK at 2050. Both
technical and behavior changes are modeled. A lifestyle scenario results in 74% reduction of distance
traveled by car and halved energy demand compared with a reference scenario.
A study by Boer et al (2011) deals with shift from road to rail of freight transports in EU to 2020. One
conclusion is that there is a potential to increase the market share for rail from 18 to 31-36% and reduce
the GHG by 19% of the emissions where road and rail compete.
A techno-economic analysis of opportunities and strategies towards climate-friendly transport is made
in the EU-funded project TOSCA (Technology Opportunities and Strategies toward Climate-friendly
transport, ref 2011a, b, c, d). The conclusion is that technology improvements are essential, but cannot
alone meet the EU targets of GHG reductions. Also behavioral measures are needed, such as reducing the
need for transport and shifts toward low-emission transport modes.
3. Transport demand and modal split in an international perspective
Some facts about passenger transport around the world are shown in Table 1. In Europe, the structure
is different between EU 15 and EU 12. Car ownership in particular is lower in EU 12, as is also travel
consumption per inhabitant. In the USA, car ownership is extremely high and travel consumption per
inhabitant is more than twice that in Europe.
In Japan, car ownership and travel consumption are of the same order as in Europe. At 30%, rail’s
market share is very high in Japan. This can be compared with 0.4% in the USA and 6.5% in Europe,
excluding metro and trams. Despite a normal car ownership level, the private car’s market share in Japan
is only 54%, compared to 74% in Europe and 85% in the USA. One explanation is that Japan has a highspeed rail system over large parts of the country, with both direct trains for longer distances and stopping
trains for short and medium distances. Japan has also a lower share of motorways than Europe and USA.
For freight however, the situation is different. There are no big differences in GNP per inhabitant
except for EU 12, where it is much lower. Tonne-kilometres per inhabitant are three times as high in the
USA as in Europe. One explanation for this is that the USA is a big continent with substantial natural
recourses moved on long distances to the users. Rail’s market share is extremely high in the USA; 53%
compared to 18% in Europe, excluding sea transport and pipelines. The long-distance freight railways in
the USA are very efficient and market-oriented with long trains, high axle load and a large loading gauge.
Nelldal-Andersson: Mode shift as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
3
Table 1: Some facts about transport and infrastructure in Europe, USA and Japan. Source: Calculations from EC (2009).
Europe
Europe
Europe
EU 15
EU 12
EU 27
Millions of inhabitants
392
103
Number of inhabitants/km2
121
95
13 954
500
2007
USA
Japan
495
115
301
128
31
340
7 864
326
12 770
464
28 530
781
10 147
539
56%
Population density
Passenger transports
Passenger-km/inhabitant/year
Cars/1000 inhabitants
Market shares
Private car
75%
70%
74%
85%
Bus and coach
8%
13%
9%
3%
7%
Rail
Metro and tram
6%
1%
6%
3%
6%
1%
0%
0%
30%
**
Air
9%
7%
9%
11%
7%
Sea
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
10 101
21 472
9 297
Motorways metres/1000 inhatbitants
151
41
128
316
58
Railways metres/1000 inhabitants
384
598
429
678
219
Total
Infrastructure
Roads metres/1000 inhabitants
High-speed rail metres/1000 inhabitants
16
0
12
1
19
10%
0%
10%
0%
33%
29 281
5 000
8 398
5 437
24 935
5 091
33 472
16 880
28 227
2 891
Road
78%
70%
76%
37%
94%
Rail
15%
28%
18%
53%
6%
7%
2%
6%
10%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
**)Incl in rail
High-speed rail/Motorways %
Freight transports*
Gross national product (GNP)/inhabitant
Tonnes-kilometres/inhabitant
Market shares
Inland waterway
Total
*) Exkl sea and pipe-lines
4. Energy consumption and GHG emissions for different modes, 2010-2050
Possible development up to the year 2050 has been analyzed by the TOSCA project; see TOSCA (2011a,
2011b, 2011c, 2011d), taking into account the most promising technical improvements. Figure 1 show the
estimated average life-cycle GHG emissions for all investigated modes, including indirect emissions for
electric modes. There is a significant technical potential to reduce energy consumption in all modes in the
long term; in the order of 25-40% for cars, trucks and airplanes. This is without using biofuels or lowGHG electricity. From a pure technical point of view more can be gained by using biofuels and, for cars
and short-distance trucks, even low-GHG electricity. This will require substantial taxation, subsidies or
other regulatory measures. Further, the availability of biofuels on a very large scale for transportation will
most likely be limited in a global perspective, because of other competing needs for the use of land.
It is also possible to reduce the long-term energy consumption by 40-50% for trains with a
combination of different means. Most of these means have economic benefits as well and will be
introduced gradually. The reduction of energy consumption also includes the estimated increase of speeds
due to the need for more competitive rail services. It should be noted that high-speed rail has the lowest
GHG emission of all types of passenger rail transport, due to superior aerodynamic performance, a high
load factor and sometimes shorter distances on the new line. With a possible future low-GHG production
mix of electric power it is even lower.
There are some fundamental technical prerequisites that make rail energy efficient: the wheel-steel rail
concept has very low rolling resistance, coupling many vehicles together reduces drag, moderate grades
4
Nelldal-Andersson: Mode shift as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
reduce the need for propulsion forces, electric traction is available and braking energy can to a large
extent be regenerated back to other trains or to the electric grid. All these factors make trains energy
efficient in comparison
Today approximately 50% of the European rail network is electrified and 80-90% of rail transport in
Europe is operated using electric propulsion. Electricity can be produced with very low GHG emissions,
but today about 50% in Europe is produced with GHG-emitting fuels as coal, natural gas and oil.
Nonetheless, even without a change in electricity mix, and with increased average speed, rail is still
expected to be energy efficient and has lower GHG emissions than other modes in 2050. This is why it is
a good solution to make rail so attractive that its market share increases, particularly over medium and
longer distances, where rail is most efficient
Freight transport GHG emissions
Passenger transport GHG emissions
2010
2050 Baseline
2050 with low GHG el.prod
2010
2050 Baseline
2050 with low GHG el.prod
120
160
140
100
g / tonnes-kilometre
g / passenger-kilometre
120
100
80
60
80
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
Car
Rail
Airplane
Heavy truck
Rail
Figure 1. (left): GHG emissions in grams per passenger-kilometre, (right) GHG emissions in grams per tonnekilometre for different modes with average European electricity mix 2010 and 2050 with most promising technology.
Sources: TOSCA (2011); Heavy truck: Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung (2008).
5. Future passenger rail system
5.1 The development of a high-speed network in Europe
The plans for high-speed lines are developing and in addition to visions there are now government
investigations being carried on in more countries, such as Sweden, Norway and the UK. No decisions
have yet been taken in these countries but high-speed lines are taking on an increasingly prominent role
not only within the European Union but also in the individual countries’ planning processes.
If the plans are realized, it means that the European network that in 2010 had a length of 6,000 km will
be expanded to 17,000 km by 2025, i.e. its total length will increase threefold. If expansion continues at
the same rate until 2050, there will be 36,000 km of high-speed lines in Europe, equivalent to 17% of
today’s network. The difficulties associated with implementation can often be found in a long and tricky
planning process as well as funding.
There is also a plan for a TEN-T (Trans European Network) high-speed-train network in Europe that
also comprises conventional lines for 200 km/h or more. It is larger than the high-speed network that only
comprises new lines for speeds of at least 250 km/h. The TEN-T comprised 10,000 km in 2005 and is
estimated to comprise 30,000 km by 2020. The six freight corridors in the planned TEN-T network
comprise a total of 13,500 km. Besides TEN-T and the new very high-speed lines, also upgrading of the
existing rail network is important for reduced travel time, punctuality and increase of capacity.
In the EU’s white paper, great emphasis is also laid on intermodal traffic as regards passenger
transport, and in particular between train and airplane.
Nelldal-Andersson: Mode shift as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
5.2 Possible market effects of a developed passenger rail system
Investigations and statistical analysis show a very strong connection between journey time by rail and
rail/air market share. Graphs shown in different publications by Nelldal-Troche (2001), Steer Davis
Gleave (2006), UIC (2008), Kjørstad-Norheim (2009) have a similar form. Models developed by Transek
(2002), Jorritsma (2009) and Lundberg (2010) are consistent and have high reliability, see figure 2.
The relation between rail and air is very direct. When journey time by train is shorter, more customers
change mode to train. Price and frequency have less importance than journey time. However, distance and
journey time to the airport as well as terminal times will also affect the relative journey time by air
compared with rail. One conclusion is that with a travel time of three hours rail will have a higher market
share than air. With three hours, travel time from city to city is almost equal for air and rail, including
feeder transport and terminal times.
There is also a substantial impact on private car use, trip generation and trip distribution. The effects of
fast regional trains Stockholm-Eskilstuna (115 km, east of Stockholm, Sweden) opened in 1997 have
been evaluated ex post ex ante by Fröidh (2003). Journey time was shortened from 1h40min to about 1h,
making daily commuting possible. The demand for rail transport increased 6 times compared with the old
line. The rail services’ market share increased from 6% to about 30% for regional journeys. Most of the
new rail customers were former car riders and many new trips were generated because daily commuting
was possible.
Similar effects have been shown by Jorritsma (2009) for the Madrid-Seville high-speed line, where the
market share for rail increased from 16% to 51%, while road and air transport dropped accordingly.
Figure 2 (right) shows the influence on road transport from the introduction of French high-speed rail
Paris-Lyon.
Competing with the car is more complex than competing with air travel. There are many other factors
affecting car travel. Except travel time, price, frequency and punctuality are important. In long term the
result can be less increase in car travel and it can also affect car ownership and localization because of
shorter journey times which allows daily commuting as has been shown by Fröidh (2003).
Figure 2: (left): Market shares rail-air as a function of rail journey times around year 2010. Source: Lundberg (2010)
(right): Road transport development Paris-Lyon 1981-1991 compared with other roads. Source: Arduin (1994).
5
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Nelldal-Andersson: Mode shift as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
6. Future rail freight system
6.1 Plans for Europe
In the short term, timetable channels for international freight trains with “one stop shop” already exist,
which means that railway companies only need to approach one infrastructure manager to get a timetable
slot. Further there is also the TEN-T network and the planned corridors with the common European
signalling system ERTMS. The aim is to achieve an interoperable network with a common standard
where it is possible to operate a freight train throughout Europe in roughly the same way as a truck.
In the long term, there is an ambition to also make it possible to operate long freight trains of possibly
1,500 metres in length, compared to today’s 500-750 metres in this network. Today standards vary
between different countries, not only as regards train length but also when it comes to loading gauges,
power supply systems and signalling systems. ERTMS is intended to resolve the problem of different
signalling systems but it will take time before it has been introduced everywhere.
Developing intermodal traffic is important for the railway to be able to reach a larger market. If
intermodal freight transport is to increase, more efficient terminal technologies must be developed for
both containers and trailers. Most trailers in Europe cannot be lifted by crane, so solutions are needed
where the trailer can roll or be hauled by other means than lifting. As regards containers and swap bodies,
a solution with liner trains and automatic horizontal transfer would be ideal; see Nelldal (2005) and
Woxénius (2004). The containers would then also be able to be loaded and unloaded below the overhead
electric contact wires at terminals along the way. Such a system provides for a quick load transfer, which
is necessary to be cost effective and successfully compete with road transport on medium distances.
6.2 Possible market effects for freight
As was shown in Section 3, rail’s market share is much higher in the USA than in Europe. The
development of the market shares in USA, EU and Sweden is shown in Figure 3. There are differences
between the markets in the USA and EU. In USA the market has no national borders and the US railways
can cross state borders without delays and they are very efficient. This is not the situation today in the
EU, but this is what the EU’s policies are seeking to achieve in the future.
There are heavy unit-trains that transport coal, for example, over long distances in USA. They account
for about 25% of the railways’ tonne-kilometres. But there are also unit trains in Europe, mostly for coal
and iron ore, and they account for 27% of the tonne-kilometres in Europe. Such heavy haulage is a kind
of de facto monopoly. Road haulage also has a de facto monopoly over distances shorter than 100 km, or
approximately 10% of the tonne-kilometres by truck.
Deregulation of the rail freight market in Europe has been implemented successively over the last 15
years but has in most countries only been implemented theoretically and not in practice. In the former
eastern European regulated economies, EU 12, rail’s market share has decreased successively from 51%
in 1995 to 28% in 2007. In EU 15 it has been relatively stable at about 15%, with a slight increase. In the
whole of Europe it decreased at the beginning of the period but has stabilised in the last 5 years.
In more deregulated countries like Germany, the UK, Austria, Switzerland and Sweden rail freight has
increased due to new companies entering the market and more efficient state railways as a result of
competition; see Figure 3 (right). In some countries, truck-fees may also have affected the modal split.
The development is not dramatic but in a historical perspective with continuously decreasing market
shares for rail, this represents an interruption of the earlier trend.
In international transport in particular there is great potential for rail freight because the market share is
lower than in national transport due to management and interoperability problems. In Sweden,
international transport’s market share is only half of the share of the national transport despite there being
large volumes over long distances that are suitable for rail because of economics of scale.
Nelldal-Andersson: Mode shift as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
60%
Railway market share in some countries in Europe
Rail Freight market share in Sweden, the EU and the USA
of total road (in USA inter-city), rail and inland waterways
60%
USA
CH
50%
50%
Share of rail+road+inland waterway
Market share % of tonnes-kilometre
7
40%
Sweden
30%
20%
EU 15
10%
SE
40%
AT
30%
DE
20%
UK
10%
0%
1970
Source.Railw ay Group KTH
0%
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Note: Some figures 1970-1990 are missing and last year´s are preliminary
Figure 3: Left: Development of rail’s market share in USA, Europe and Sweden. Right: Development of freight rail
market share in some countries in Europe with deregulated rail freight market. Source: EU statistics 2009.
7 Demand forecasts
In TOSCA total demand forecasts with modal split have mainly been made using the Trans-Tools
forecast model. The GHG emissions were then calculated by completing vehicle stock models. Here we
will first discuss the demand in the projection of TOSCA and then a hypothetical redistribution between
modes. The redistribution and the resulting mode shift to rail are made under the assumption of a “best
practice” rail system, with influences from USA, Japan and Switzerland.
The figures from TOSCA baseline forecasts are shown in Table 2. Public transport and shipping were
not included in the available forecasts. The total demand for passenger-km by road, rail and aviation will
increase by 59% from 2010 to 2050 in a baseline scenario. For freight, the total demand for truck and rail
will increase by 51% in tonnes-km. As a matter of fact, the Trans-tools model seems to be very static,
most changes being in total demand because of different economic development. The market shares are
almost constant from 2010 to 2050. The only change observed in market share has been implemented
outside Trans-tools for aviation forecast, because the Trans-tools forecast did not prove to be realistic.
7.1 A mode shift scenario
The mode shift scenario for passenger transport includes an extended high-speed rail network throughout
Europe, much like in Japan today. Faster, more frequent InterCity and regional trains will be introduced
on the conventional network. This will encourage a shift from car to rail and from air to rail and also
induce some new travel. The aim is to achieve a market share for rail of about 30% by 2050.
The high-speed network will free capacity for rail freight on the conventional network but for capacity
reasons new tracks and terminals will also be built. This will lead to higher average speeds and better
quality. Longer and heavier trains will lower transportation costs. Deregulation will be fully implemented,
which is especially important in international transport. There is a potential in intermodal transport for
high-value goods and over shorter distances. The aim is to attain a market share of 50% of the land-based
road-rail market, not to take market shares from shipping.
7.2 Method
Data for all modes has been extracted from Trans-tools by the University of Cambridge. The data used
for mode shift calculation is the distribution by distance classes. This is because it is the most relevant
factor for increasing rail transport. Rail is more competitive over longer distances except for very long
distances for passenger where aviation dominates and for overseas shipping, where shipping is the only
available mode, except a small amount carried by air. Shipping, however, is not included in this case
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Nelldal-Andersson: Mode shift as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
study. The mode split has therefore been adjusted for different distance classes to what we have estimated
to be a realistic share in the future. For passenger transport we have compared with the distribution in
Japan and other studies. For freight transport we have compared with figures from a detailed forecast
from a “best practice” rail scenario for Sweden. This has been applied to the demand for 2050.
For the GHG-calculations aviation has been separated for shorter than 1,000 km and longer than 1,000
km. The shorter lines are less efficient and compete more with rail. Also, lighter trucks have been
separated from heavier and medium sized trucks operating on longer distances which are more efficient
and compete with rail.
7.3 Results
In the baseline scenario, passenger transport by car will increase by 57% from 4,725 to 7,415 billion
passkm, rail will increase by 37% from 410 to 560 and for air we have assumed 100% from 560 to 1100
billion passkm. The shift in mode split from road to rail has been adjusted from road to rail over distances
mainly over 100 km and from air to rail mainly between 300 and 1,000 km. The net result is that rail
demand will increase from 560 to 2,660 billion passenger kilometres or a factor of 4.7 compared with the
baseline scenario. The shift from road and aviation to rail results in 2,100 passenger kilometres to be
transferred to rail. This means that private car still will increase with 19% and aviation will increase with
48%.
In the baseline scenario, freight transport by truck will increase by 53% from 1,900 to 2,900 billion
tonne-km and by rail by 43% from 440 to 630 billion tonne-km. The shift from road to rail over longer
distances results in 950 billion tonne-kilometres being transferred from road to rail. This means that the
truck transport effort will remain at the 2010 level. Rail will increase from 630 to 1,600 billion tonne-km
or a factor of 2.5 compared with the baseline scenario.
The market share for passenger rail will increase to 29%, as result of the mode shift; for car it will
decrease to 62% and for air it will decrease to 8% for the car-rail-air-market. At distances between 1001000 km rail has a market share of 61% of the passenger-km which is in line with the EU target that the
majority of the medium distance passenger transport should go by rail.
The market share for freight rail will increase to 45% as result of the mode shift and truck will
decrease to 55%. This means that rail and truck has each half of the long distance market of transport
longer than 100 km. At distances longer than 300 km rail has taken over 63% of the tonne-km by road in
the baseline scenario at 2050. These figures are in line with the EU target that more than 50% of the road
freight should shift to rail or waterborne transport in 2050.
In the baseline scenario, the GHG emissions for all modes included for passenger and freight transport
will increase by 15% between 2010 and 2050 despite technology improvments. In the mode shift
scenario, GHG will decrease by 8%, and will be 20% lower than the baseline scenario. The net effect is
almost the same in passenger and freight transport.
These estimations have been done by today´s production mix of electricity. There is also a scenario
with electricity production with lower GHG emissions. This is important both for rail and for electric
private cars at 2050. In this scenario, combined with a mode shift to rail, it is estimated to be possible to
reduce GHG emissions by almost 30% from 2010 to 2050.
7.4 The capacity challenge for rail
The increase in rail transport with a mode shift is estimated to 4% a year. Between 1995 and 2007,
freight transport by road in Europe increased by 3.4% a year on average, and before 1995 the increase
was even higher. In a long-term perspective, a development of this order is therefore not impossible.
Regarding capacity, building a high-speed network will free capacity so it will be possible to operate
twice as many freight trains on the conventional network as today. With longer freight trains, possibly a
doubling of the length from 500-750 to up to 1,500 meters, capacity will be doubled again (in the USA
freight trains today are up to 3,000 metres long). Higher axle loads, from today’s 22.5 tonnes in Europe to
Nelldal-Andersson: Mode shift as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
9
25 tonnes will increase capacity by 15% and 30 tons by about 40% (in the USA the axle load today is 35
tons). Further, increased loading gauge can increase the useful volume in freight wagons by 30-50%.
For passenger trains, building separate high-speed lines will at least quadruple capacity and also
increase reliability. Further, there is also a need for more capacity in the ordinary network. The
introduction of ERTMS level 3 is important because it can increase capacity by 40%. To some extent, this
can be handled by longer trains and higher capacity trains such as double-deckers and wide-body trains.
An increase in capacity of 4-6 times is therefore not unrealistic but assumes heavy investment in rail
infrastructure. Inversely, the need to invest and maintain the road system will be reduced.
It should be pointed out that investment in increased capacity will in most cases also lead to lower
operation cost and will therefore contribute to a more competitive rail transport system in general.
Figure 4: Results of TOSCA forecasts and estimation of GHG-emissions 2010-2050; TOSCA (2011)
Table 2: Demand forecasts 2010-2050, baseline forecast and rail 'best practice’ mode shift scenario.
2010
Demand forecasts
Passenger-kilometres, billions
Passenger cars
Rail passenger
Aviation (intra-EU27)
Sum
Tonnes-kilometres, billions
Trucks
Rail freight
Sum
2050
Baseline
2050
Mode
shift
Increase 2010-2050
Baseline
Mode
shift
Difference
Baseline/
Mode shift
2010
Shares
2050
Baseline
2050
Mode shift
4 725
409
558
5 692
7 414
561
1 100
9 075
5 620
2 660
740
9 020
1,57
1,37
1,97
1,59
1,19
6,50
1,33
1,58
0,76
4,74
0,67
0,99
83%
7%
10%
100%
82%
6%
12%
100%
62%
29%
8%
100%
1 881
441
2 322
2 881
633
3 514
1 930
1 584
3 514
1,53
1,43
1,51
1,03
3,59
1,51
0,67
2,50
1,00
81%
19%
100%
82%
18%
100%
55%
45%
100%
2010
2050
Baseline
Table 3: Total GHG-emissions and average emissions per passenger and tonnes-kilometres.
2010
GHG emissions
Passenger transports
Passenger cars
Rail passenger
Aviation (intra-EU27)
Sum
Index
Freight transports
Trucks
Rail freight
Sum
Index
Total
Index
2050
Baseline
Tonnes CO2, millions
624
727
20
12
78
90
721
829
100
115
Tonnes CO2, millions
245
289
11
7
256
296
100
116
977
1 124
100
115
2050
Mode
shift
2050
Mode shift
low GHG el
2050
Mode shift/
baseline
551
56
56
663
92
393
21
56
471
65
-24%
374%
-38%
-20%
-20%
215
17
233
91
896
92
215
8
223
87
694
71
-25%
149%
-21%
-21%
-20%
2050
2050
Mode
Mode shift
shift low GHG el
g CO2/passenger-kilometre
132
98
98
70
48
21
21
8
140
82
76
76
127
91
73
52
100
72
58
41
g CO2/tonnes-kilometre
130
100
112
112
26
11
11
5
110
84
66
64
100
76
60
58
122
89
71
55
100
73
59
45
10
Nelldal-Andersson: Mode shift as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
8 Investment strategies
A mode shift to the comparatively beneficial rail transport, with respect to energy and GHG emissions,
requires investment both in trains and in infrastructure. Train investment will be part of operator’s
business decisions and their capital cost is essentially included in their operational cost. Infrastructure
investment is partly included in operation cost, to the extent that capital cost for investment is included in
current average levels of track access charges. Note that USA and Japan cover most infrastructure cost by
their operational revenues.
In this study no detailed investigation on infrastructure investment has been made, but some
indications on the order of investment, based on European experience, is shown below. EEA (European
Environmental Agency) has presented data on transport infrastructure investments in Europe (with 20
countries covering 75% of EU) for all transport modes 1990-2008. For road and rail the figures for 1995
and 2008 are as listed below. We have assumed a modest shift of investment from road to rail from 2015.
For the period 2015-2050 the assumptions are shown in the right column.
Investments in
% of GDP
Road
Rail
Total
1995
2008
0.55
0.24
0.79
0.69
0.36
1.05
20152050
0.55
0.50
1.05
2015-2050
billion EUR
2,500
2,200
4,700
In the above example it is thus assumed that road investment from 2015 is hold back to the same share
of GDP as in 1995, while rail investment is increased by the same amount. Total investment as share of
GDP is the same as in 2008. GDP 2008 in EU-27 was 12 461 billion EUR. We assume that investments
for equivalent railway capacity and speed follow GDP development, including successive improvements
for safety, environmental protection etc. The total rail investment is then estimated to be 2,200 billion
EUR for the period 2015-2050, accounted in 2010 cost and GDP levels.
These investments can be used for
- 30 000 km additional High speed-railways á 22 MEUR/km
660 billion EUR
- 30 000 km new Freight Corridors á 13 MEUR/km
390 billion EUR
- Upgrading of existing railways
1150 billion EUR
Freight corridors above will include also new intermodal terminals for fast and cost-efficient load
transfer. Upgrading of existing railways includes speed and capacity enhancement, both passenger and
freight, for example: more double and quadruple tracks, ERTMS Level 3, increased axle load and loading
gauge, sidings and signaling for longer trains, improved receptivity for regenerated energy, etc.
9
Conclusions
With current total levels of transport infrastructure investment, and a modest re-allocation from road
to rail from 2015, it is likely that the European rail system until 2050 can be positioned to handle a
considerable share – in the order of 25-30 % of the total passenger transport and 45% of the freight
transport by truck and rail. This will be possible if the European rail system is developed into a ‘best
practice’ rail system which will open into mode shift by shorter journey times and more efficient rail
freight.
Based on earlier determined levels of GHG emissions for different transport modes (TOSCA and
others) it is estimated that a reduction of European transport GHG emissions of at least 20 % can be
achieved from 2010 until 2050 in the above-mentioned mode shift scenario. This is in comparison with a
baseline scenario with modest initiatives towards substantial GHG reductions. If low-GHG electricity
(one third of current carbon content) is produced, up to 30 % lower GHG emissions can be achieved.
A developed rail system can thus substantially contribute to the EU target of reducing GHG emissions
by 60 % below 1990 levels. Also other means will however be necessary, such as technology
development, electrification of short-distance road transport and a certain amount of biofuels, the latter
however assumed to have a limited large-scale availability. Measures to reduce the motorized transport
needs in general should also be considered.
Nelldal-Andersson: Mode shift as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
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