Briefing to Premier & Cabinet
18 October 2010
Very Wet during 2010
Record Rainfall during September
Rainfall Totals for week
ending 14 October with
some local falls 300-400
mm over the SE corner
Southern Oscillation Index
La Nina
El Nino
Two Cat 4-5 TCs – Mackay & Innisfail
Cat 3 TC AIVU makes landfall
7 TCs + Cat 3 TC DAVID makes landfall
Only 4 occasions in the past
130 years when the September
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
has been 20 or greater
(relatively strong La Nina)
1917, 1975, 1988 & 2010
(November 1973 ahead of the
1974 floods – SOI in mid 30s)
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly September 2010
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly September 2009
Multi-Model Ensemble – 10 Global Models
October - December
Multi-Model Ensemble – 4 “Best” Models
October - December
Rainfall Outlook for October-December
(Embargoed) Rainfall Outlook for November - January
NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
Bureau of Meteorology
National Climate Centre
Outlook for Tropical
Cyclones in the Australian
Forecast Region 2010-11
At least 6 Tropical Cyclones on 11 occasions in past 50 years
- but not seen since the La Nina seasons of the late 1990s
El Nino
Natural climate variability is a dominating factor in Queensland
especially in regards to tropical cyclone and monsoonal activity
La Nina
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is a good reflection of the
strength of the monsoon - is the
most significant event since 1985
Seasonal Outlook for Queensland
This is not a run-of-the-mill La Nina
The current La Nina event is now quite strong and well
established - and the majority of global computer models
indicate that it will persist until at least March next year
No two La Ninas are the same although La Nina events
are usually - but not always - associated with enhanced
tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea and above
normal rainfall over much of Queensland
Therefore expect with some degree of confidence
a fairly active cyclone season and a continuation
of the above average rains and associated flooding
Unable to predict very far in advance where cyclones
will cross the coast or which rivers will flood
Many catchments are saturated so runoff is likely
to occur with less rainfall than normally required