Digital Retailing: The Accelerating Power & Influence of Digital on Shopping Behaviors Presented by: Digital Retailing Webinar Series Anne Zybowski, Vice President Steve Mader, Director – Digital Retail Laura Kennedy, Principal Analyst November 22, 2013 Agenda • The Amazon Growth Story, Cont’d • Latest Business Model Innovation: API Drive • Digital Influences on Holiday 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 3 Attendees will learn: Atlanta, GA | December 10-12, 2013 Year End Forum Winning Today, Preparing For Tomorrow Attendees will learn: • How to strengthen 2014 business plans through quantitative & qualitative forecasts and analysis. • How to effectively compete in a rapidly changing retail marketplace. • How to best allocate resources to win today while planning for the future. Session topics include: • Where Is Purchasing Power Going & How Are Retailers Responding • Balancing Mass & Me At Walmart & Target • The Amazon Effect: Changing Shoppers Everywhere • The Shape Of Tomorrow In The Economic Trends of Today *Mention this webinar and receive 10% off your ticket. © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 4 Talk about Disruption… On way to #2 global retailer by 2017 KR Forecast 2013E KR Forecast 2018E 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Walmart $489B Carrefour $116B Costco $108B Tesco $106B Kroger $98B Schwarz Grp $93B Seven & I $86B Metro Group $85B Amazon $78B Walmart $605B Amazon $179B Costco $162B Kroger $137B Tesco $129B Carrefour $129 Seven & I $114B Schwarz Grp $110B Metro Group $95B Note: Chart in midst of updates for YEF Source: Kantar Retail database & analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 5 In a Way, Amazon is Already >$100B Retailer Amazon Sales: not all from selling product At ~10¢ on the dollar for “commission” on 3P Sales $61.1B $48.1B $34.2B $24.5B 15% 13% 10% 9% % of Total Sales ~Represents third-party seller fees earned (including commissions) and related shipping fees, digital content subscriptions, and non-retail activities. Source: Kantar Retail analysis; Company reports © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 6 Amazon Wins Because of Its Focus on Shopper Converting shoppers into repeat, loyal customers Sales $100B Active Customer Accounts $80B +34M +25M +17M $60B +36M 200M +36M – est 300M 236M est 250M 200M 164M 130M $40B $20B $0B “Avg.” annual spend per customer 55M 64M 76M 88M 150M 105M 100M 50M $9B $11B $15B $19B $25B $34B $48B $61B $78B 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E $155 $167 $195 Source: Kantar Retail analysis; Company reports $218 $233 $263 $293 $306 $330 0M >2x avg. customer spend in 7 years © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 7 Amazon Will More than Double in Next 5 Years Substantial growth in N.A. and International as “rate” slows Amazon Sales ($USD billions) 51% North America $178.9 18% CAGR International N. America Share of Sales $134.9 56% $19.2 $24.5 $34.2 8.9 10.2 11.7 12.8 15.5 18.7 2008 2009 2010 $61.1 $48.1 21.4 $77.8 62.9 51.9 42.4 33.7 26.3 53.0 62.6 72.0 2015E 2016E 26.7 34.8 44.0 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2008-13 2013-18 30% 21% 34% 16% CAGR Source: Kantar Retail database & analysis 88.0 74.9 $114.5 $95.4 32% CAGR $156.3 81.4 90.9 2017E 2018E © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 8 Amazon Will Add Most $s of Growth in the US!!! In the next 5 years… supplanting Walmart as #1 Rank / Retailer 1. Amazon 2. Walmart (excl. Sam's) 3. Kroger 4. Costco 5. CVS 6. Sam's Club 7. Walgreens 8. Apple 9. Home Depot 10. Dollar General % of KR Total Added ('13E-'18E) Sales Added ('13E-'18E) $ 46.1 41.9 38.9 35.9 24.9 19.8 18.6 16.1 13.1 11.3 9.0% 8.7% 8.1% 7.4% 5.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.3% 2.7% 2.3% Top 10 Expansion Retailers $ 264.3 54.7% All Other KR Chains in US $ 218.8 45.3% Total KR Chains in US $ 483.0 100.0% Total US ACV (Census Bureau) $ 1,016.8 * By sales added; USD billions Source: Kantar Retail Analysis n/a Note: Chart in midst of updates for YEF © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 9 “Slowing” Growth Rate Is a Function of Scale Source: Kantar Retail database & analysis Market © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail Annual Sales Growth Sales $ Added (billions) Amazon to add $8.5 – 9B per year 10 Another Way to Look at It… Amazon adds another US Top 40 retailer each year $10.9B $10.4B $9.4B Estimated 2013 Annual Sales © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 11 Amazon Fresh Drives Online Grocery Competitive dynamics will accelerate response Online Share of Food, Drugs, HBA 36% CAGR Up to 20 markets by end of 2014: - San Francisco, any day - Paris, ~8 weeks - London, ~3 months - More to come Source: US Dept. of Commerce, Kantar Retail analysis, photo cred: splendidmarket © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 12 Amazon Fresh Continues to Test & Learn Business model and distribution model continues to evolve Source: Kantar Retail analysis, company website © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 13 Continuing to Innovate the Supply Chain/Fulfillment Revolutionary = Routine, Sunday delivery? Q1 launch, Amazon Pantry © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 14 Amazon’s International Growth Strong Growth from Best Markets, still opportunity in newer regions $88.0B $74.9B $62.9B $51.9B $42.4B $33.7B $26.3B $21.4B $15.5B $8.9B $11.7B Source: Company reports, Kantar Retail analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 15 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail Revisting Amazon’s Methodical Category Expansions Source: Amazon © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 17 Remember: Amazon is a Platform Source: Amazon Websites © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 18 Amazon’s Market Evolution Source: Kantar Retail © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 19 Amazon’s Evolutionary Status Source: Kantar Retail © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 20 Digging Deeper into the First Phase Source: Kantar Retail Supplier POV • Start to build into growth plans • Moving towards resourcing the account • Internal struggle of future growth vs current share • Media Opportunity • Anticipate third party disruptions Retailer POV • Aggressive eCommerce innovation if Category Specialist • Your shopper’s share of mind will be shifting to Amazon in categories you may not sell, but seeds are being planted • General Merch first, and then Consumables © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 21 Agenda • The Amazon Growth Story, Cont’d • Latest Business Model Innovation: API Drive • Digital Influences on Holiday 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 22 Quickly Changing the French Food Landscape Drive is now “table-stakes” As of June 1 2013, 2,278 drives in France with ~1,000 opening in the last year… expect over 2,800 by year-end Source: Kantar Retail analysis, research © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 23 More Innovation in “Convenience” from Auchan API Drive… who needs a “store”? Listening to shoppers Innovating on behalf of shoppers Source: Kantar Retail analysis, Company website © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 24 A(Auchan) P(Proximity) to your I(Itenerary) Auchan near your travels… who needs a “store”? Pilot: Auchan Fâches Thumesnil Villeneuve d’Ascq http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8w3-BwB0b8 Source: Kantar Retail analysis, Company website © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 25 Current Drive Footprint Near Faches-Thumesnil Plus API pick-up locations Vous souhaitez proposer un nouveau point de livraison: - Votre enterprise, - Association, - Quartier, - Résidence… ? Source: Kantar Retail analysis, Company website © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 26 During Week in Cities, Saturday in Villages Source: Kantar Retail analysis, Google maps © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 27 Key Takeaways “Click & Collect” is truly in its infancy • Shopper-centric retailers like Auchan continue to innovate their model – redefining convenience • Retailers fixated on leveraging existing assets are going to merely see incremental growth with online – versus full potential • No doubt, there is more innovation to come! © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 28 Agenda • The Amazon Growth Story, Cont’d • Latest Business Model Innovation: API Drive • Digital Influences on Holiday 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 29 Holiday Forecast: About Same as Last Year But lower (by about ½ ppt) than Q3 pace • Topline growth of 4% will be driven primarily by online sales gains Breakdown of Topline Holiday Forecast Q4 2013 Retail Sales Growth vs. Q4 2012 • Brick-and-mortar stores will grow a percentage point slower at 3% • Online and other non-store combined will grow 11%, but online will grow even faster * Store sales may include a small amount of online sales ** Topline measure is retail less auto, fuel, & food service channels *** Other non-store includes catalogs and TV home shopping Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Kantar Retail analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 30 Shoppers Heading into the Season with Similar Spending Outlook as Last Year Amount Planning to Spend on Holiday Gifts Compared with Last Year Note: Arrows indicate significant difference from previous year (95% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, September 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 31 Spending Plans Hold Steady Despite Myriad Events with Potential to Derail Confidence Amount Planning to Spend on Holiday Gifts Compared with Last Year: September to October, 2013 vs. 2012 Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, September and October 2012, September and October 2012 and 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 32 Fewer Shoppers Got an Early Start This Year With late Thanksgiving, those starting in December is up When Shoppers Plan to Begin Holiday Shopping, Sept. 2013 Between now and Halloween 7% Between Halloween and Thanksgiving 20% On "Black Friday" 11% Sometime in early December 19% Sometime in mid- to late-December 4% Have Already Started Fewer shoppers have started their holiday shopping at this point vs. last year Sep-12 Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, September 2013 Sep-13 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 33 Significant Opportunity to Influence Shoppers Remains: Only One-Fifth Have Set Plans How Firm Are Holiday Plans, Sept. 2013: Types of Gifts and Where Will Shop Waiting to See What the Deals Are + Haven’t Thought About It Yet Types of Gifts: Where Will Shop: Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, September 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 34 Retailer Sets for Holiday Shopping Consolidating Top Retailers Where Shoppers Plan to Shop (or Have Already Shopped) for Holiday Gifts, September 2013 Shoppers indicate plans to shop fewer retailers for holiday gifts vs. last year, with a notable dip for shoppers planning to shop Walmart. Dollar stores and CE historically have a big upside in actual shopping: more ultimately shop than plan to initially Note: Arrows indicate significant difference from previous year (95% confidence level) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, September 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 35 Boomers Lean into Amazon for Stress-Free BF Amazon one of top 5 retailer choices, except among Gen Y Top 5 Retailers Planned to Shop on Black Friday Gen Y Gen X Boomers Have Nots Haves Parents Walmart/ WMSC Walmart/ WMSC Walmart/ WMSC Walmart/ WMSC Walmart/ WMSC Walmart/ WMSC (45%) (41%) (45%) (43%) (44%) (55%) Best Buy (40%) Target/TGT (29%) Amazon (34%) Target/TGT (26%) Target/TGT (40%) Target/TGT (36%) Target/STGT (40%) Amazon (25%) Target/TGT (32%) JCPenney (22%) Kohl's (34%) Kohl's (32%) Kohl's (26%) Kohl's (25%) Kohl's (31%) Amazon (22%) Amazon (33%) Amazon (26%) JCPenney (24%) Best Buy (19%) Macy's (26%) Best Buy (21%) Best Buy (29%) Best Buy (21%) Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, October 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 36 Promotional Environment Might Dilute Impact of “Real” Black Friday Shoppers’ Attitudes about Black Friday: % Agree/Strongly Agree (among all shoppers planning on purchasing holiday gifts) Anticipate there will be lots of deals on holiday gifts before Black Friday “Black Friday” pricing no longer unique to the “real” Black Friday It’s poor taste for retailers to open on Thanksgiving Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, September 2013 © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 37 Retailer Messaging Diverts Interest from BF Too Particularly renewed emphasis on layaway, price match Source: Retailer websites © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 38 Nov 1 Kicked off Early Black Friday Merchandising Amazon & Walmart out front 1 Source: Amazon.com © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 39 Price Battles Heating Up Online, In-Store Walmart begins price matching Black Friday today; will match Walmart.com to brick and mortar competitors Amazon Toys: % Variance from Average Price Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 (4.4) (5.3) (5.6) Walmart (3.4) (3.0) (5.7) Target (1.1) (0.2) 0.6 Toys R Us 8.9 8.5 10.7 Walmart and Amazon essentially tied in week 3 CE: % Variance from Average Price Source: Walmart.com, Amazon.com, Goldman Sachs Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Amazon (2.4) (2.4) (2.2) Walmart (0.6) (0.3) (0.9) Best Buy (0.4) (0.2) (0.5) Target 3.4 2.9 4.0 Amazon has led all three weeks © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 40 How Are Retailers Using Digital This Holiday? • Starting early online with free shipping offers • Curating the selection to remove friction to purchase • Encouraging sharing of lists, gift ideas, product reviews Source: Kantar Retail research and analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 41 An Early Start: Free Shipping Wars Started in Oct. Source: Retailer emails © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 42 …and Continued into Early November November 4 November 8 November 11 October 26 November 11 Source: Retailer emails © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 43 Elsewhere in Multichannel: Target Launches Buy Online, Pickup in Store Guests connect across channels and link to the local store • Rolled out to all US stores by November 1st, 2013 • Guests can order from mobile or computer and pick up same-day Source: Kantar Retail research and analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 44 Curation: Pinterest Is the New List Focused on personalized planning and triggers Home Depot, Michael’s recognize Pinterest’s power in-store Source: Kantar Retail store visits, Lowes.com © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 45 Curation: An Endless Shelf…of Decorating Ideas Linking in store experience to online engagement Source: Kantar Retail store visits and analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 46 Curation: Nordstrom “Pop-In” Holiday Shop Creates Urgency and Excitement “Everyone has access to everything at the same time because of the Internet, and yet they all want something special to give.” –Olivia Kim, Nordstrom director of creative projects The Pop-In shops are also in store Source: Nordstrom.com © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 47 Curation: Whole Foods + Etsy Partner to Create Holiday Solutions Destination Online, In-Store In-store tutorials with local artists, a Whole Foodsexclusive bag Source: Etsy.com © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 48 Kate Spade Encourages Sharing and Awareness Gives shoppers the tools to market on its behalf Wishlist can also broaden shoppers’ awareness of Kate Spade’s product selection Source: KateSpade.com © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 49 Sharing: Hashtags Gain Prominence as Community-Builders Online Retailers can use them to track their own trends—but do they cede ownership? Source: Retailer emails, websites © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 50 Sharing: Walmart Canada Baits Reviewers in the Holiday “Recruitment Period” Source: Walmart.ca email © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 51 Digital Influence Holiday 2013 Takeaways… so far • Retailers’ approaches to the holiday season exemplify the cutthroat battle for share across retail. Early freeshipping offers and pre-Black Friday sales are retailers’ attempts to snag share before shoppers turn over their shopping to Amazon. • Personalization and curation through online tools are a form of convenience in the hectic holiday season. • Digital sharing mechanisms give shoppers the tools to do the marketing for retailers as well as get validation of their own purchases and wishes. Source: Kantar Retail research and analysis © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 52 Attendees will learn: Atlanta, GA | December 10-12, 2013 Year End Forum Winning Today, Preparing For Tomorrow Attendees will learn: • How to strengthen 2014 business plans through quantitative & qualitative forecasts and analysis. • How to effectively compete in a rapidly changing retail marketplace. • How to best allocate resources to win today while planning for the future. Session topics include: • Where Is Purchasing Power Going & How Are Retailers Responding • Balancing Mass & Me At Walmart & Target • The Amazon Effect: Changing Shoppers Everywhere • The Shape Of Tomorrow In The Economic Trends of Today *Mention this webinar and receive 10% off your ticket. © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail 53 Contact: Anne Zybowski Vice President anne.zybowski@kantarretail.com Stephen MAder Director Stephen.mader@kantarretail.com T:+1 617 912 2856 M:+1 646 345 4416 www.kantarretail.com T:+44 0 2074502651 M:+44 0 7455234060 www.kantarretail.com Laura Kennedy Principal Analyst Laura.Kennedy@Kantarretail.com T:+1 617 912 2851 www.kantarretail.com © Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail