The challenge of maintaining status
quo in the South China Sea
Nguyen Thi Lan Anh
China’s behaviour in the SCS 2009
• 29/5 & 31/5/2011: Chinese boats Fei Sheng No. 16 and Vessel No. B12549
attempted to approach the rear deck of the Viking II seismic survey ship and
interfere with its operations.
• 1/6/2011: Chinese military vessels threatened to use their guns against a
Vietnamese fishing boat operating in waters near the Spratly archipelago.
• 9/6/2011: Chinese fishing boat No. 62226 equipped with a cable cutting device
snared the cable of the Viking II operating in survey Block 136‐03 in the vicinity
of Vanguard Bank (Tu Chinh).
• 6/7/2011: Armed Chinese naval troops beat the skipper of a Vietnamese fishing
boat, threatened the crew, and then forced the boat to leave contested waters
near the Paracel Islands.
2010
2011
2012
China Introduced New Vertical MAP
From U shape to emerging J shape line
Of course, the Oil rig was not about Oil
Johnson South Reef Construction
China Major Naval Power Dreams

2010

2020

2050
• Coastal defense
• Near sea defense
• Blue water navy
China securing “exits” to the Oceans
Chinese “9 Exits” toward Outer Sea
“Int’l Express News” Apr 2010
“String of Pearls”
①
Pakistan
Hawaii
②
Bangladesh
③
Anti-Piracy
④
⑤
A2/AD
⑥
Myanmar
1st Island Line
Guam
Sri Lanka
⑨
Diego Garcia
2nd Island Line
⑧
⑦
From U-shape to J-shape
U-Shape
J-shape
Territory
Historical rights
Resources
Territory
Historical rights
Resources
Security zone
Dominance
China’s DREAM
China’s Domestic Politics
• First generation of leader
not “hand picked” by Dang
Xiao Ping
• Opening lots of fronts
• Power base: PLA and the
mass (nationalist)
PLA more powerful,
control foreign policy
Solving the South China Sea vicious cycle:
Where do I begin?
Territory
Sovereign
rights
Nationalism
Supremacy and
Resources
Dominance
Maritime
power
Solving the South China Sea vicious cycle:
Where do I begin?
Territorial
Self
Restraint
Status
quo
Disputes
UNCLOS
Maritime
Clarify
claims
Delimit
Disputes
boundaries
Manage
Nationalism
Domestic
Politics
The role of
public opinion
and rules of
the road
Transparency
Supremacy
and
Joint
Resources
Monitoring
Dominance
Trust
building
Developments
Maritime
Incidents
Management
power
Thank you !