The Hungarian financial system can make only a limited contribution to the economic recovery Report on Financial Stability November 2010 Main messages The strong Swiss franc, bank levy and the upholding of moratorium on foreclosures and evictions have had a negative effect on banks’ income-generating capacity. Due to the loss of regional competitive advantage, the Hungarian banking sector might experience disadvantages in banking-groups’ funding allocation All this adds to the risk that credit supply and, consequently, financial system’s contribution to economic growth might decline further. BUT The recent deterioration in the operational environment of the Hungarian banking sector does not endanger financial stability, due to the adequate capital position of domestic banks and the financial strength of their foreign owners. Main messages along the baseline scenario • Following the economic growth, outstanding loans to corporations and households may increase next year, however downside risks may delay the turningpoint • Portfolio quality has been deteriorating due to the weak performance of project financing in corporate segment, while in household segment due to the passthrough of the strong Swiss franc • The loan-loss coverage ratio of non-performing mortgage loans appears to be low • Ratio of non-performing loans may slightly exceed 15 per cent next year for both corporations and households at the end of 2011, the cost of provisioning as a percentage of total outstanding loans may peak at around 3 per cent • The banking sector’s profitability is deteriorating sharply due to high provisions for loan losses and bank levy, it is low not only in regional comparison but also compared to the performance of parent banks • At the systemic level, banks capital position is adequate, the banking sector’s need for capital injection is minimal along the baseline scenario • Reliance on external refinancing remains high, while the shortening in maturities emerges as an additional vulnerability Corporate lending contracted, Q3 may suggest a proximity to the turning point (Net quarterly credit flow of corporate loans by the domestic banking sector and other financial intermediaries ) 500 bn HUF bn HUF 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 -100 -200 -200 -300 -300 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 -100 Short term Long term Provided by other, non-bank financial intermidiaries Total domestic credits Source: MNB. Non-price credit conditions are not tightened further, however in the last four years credit supply constraints were strengthened 16 per cent Interest rates and spreads per cent Credit conditions 4 100 per cent 12 3 Tightening 80 60 40 8 2 20 0 0 Jan-08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009.jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010.jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 0 Interest rate HUF-denominated loans Interest rate EUR-denominated loans Smoothed spread on HUF loans (right-hand scale) Smoothed spread on EUR loans (right-hand scale) -20 -40 2002 H2 2003 H1 H2 2004 H1 H2 2005 H1 H2 2006 H1 H2 2007 H1 H2 2008 H1 H2 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3-Q4 (exp.) 1 Easing 4 Net percentage balance respondence tightening/easing credit conditions Source: MNB. In a regional comparison, Hungary experienced the largest contraction in corporate lending by banks GDP-growth per cent per cent 4 2 2 0 0 Corporate lending per cent per cent 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 Czech Republic Poland Hungary Q2 2010 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 2009 Q1 2008 Q1 Q2 2010 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 -8 2009 Q1 -8 Q4 -6 Q3 -6 Q2 -4 2008 Q1 -4 Q4 -2 Q3 -2 6 Q2 4 Slovakia Source: Eurostat, national central banks. Note: Quarter-on-quarter percentage changes of real GDP; seasonally adjusted data. New loan volumes to non-financial corporations as a percentage of quarterly nominal GDP. Net credit flow to households has been declining (Net quarterly credit flow of corporate loans by the domestic banking sector and other financial intermediaries ) 500 bn HUF bn HUF 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 Bank loans - HUF Bank loans - FX Loans from non-bank financial intermediaries Q3 Q2 2010 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 2009 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 2008 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 2007 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 2006 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 -300 2005 Q1 -300 Q4 -200 Q3 -200 Q2 -100 2004 Q1 -100 Total (seasonally adj.) Source: MNB. Foreign currency lending has virtually disappeared, although due to exchange rate effect the outstanding amount of FX-denominated loans peaked bn HUF New contracts per cent 200 100 80 150 60 100 40 50 20 0 Jan-2008 March May July Sept Nov Jan-2009 March May July Sept Nov Jan-2010 March May July Sept 0 Mortgage - HUF Other - HUF Mortgage - FX Other - FX Proportion of HUF loans (right-hand scale) Proportion of HUF mortgage loans (right-hand scale) 10 000 bn HUF Total loans per cent 100 9 000 90 8 000 80 7 000 70 6 000 60 5 000 50 4 000 40 3 000 30 2 000 20 1 000 10 0 0 2004 Q1 Q3 2005 Q1 Q2 2006 Q1 Q1 2007 Q1 Q4 2008 Q1 Q3 2009 Q1 Q2 2010 Q1 Q3 250 HUF FX Proportion of HUF loans (right-hand scale) Source: MNB. The decline in banks’ household lending is also the largest in regional comparison Consumption per cent per cent 3 4 2 2 1 1 per cent 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 Czech Republic Poland Hungary Q2 2010 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 2009 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 -1 2008 Q1 Q2 2010 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 2009 Q1 Q4 -3 -1 Q3 -3 Q2 -2 2008 Q1 -2 Q4 -1 2007 Q3 -1 Q4 0 Consumer lending per cent 2007 Q3 3 Slovakia Source: Eurostat, national central banks. Note: Quarter-on-quarter percentage changes in consumption; seasonally adjusted data. Consumer loans from banks to households as a percentage of quarterly nominal GDP. Demand for loans may increase next year, but there are marked downside risks regarding the turning point (Forecast for domestic lending (net flows adjusted for exchange rate effects)) 500 bn HUF bn HUF 500 Forecast 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 -100 -200 -200 -300 -300 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -100 Domestic household loans Domestic corporate loans Source: MNB. Rising NPL ratio in the corporate segment, rising loan losses at project financing Non-performing loans 14 per cent per cent 14 4.5 per cent Cost of provisioning per cent 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 8 10 3.0 2.5 8 2.0 6 6 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 12 10 4 2 2 0 0 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 4 30-90 days delinquency ratio 90+ days delinquency ratio 2.5 2.0 2007Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010Q1 Q2 Q3 12 Cost of provisioning to total outstanding amount - 12month moving average Cost of provisioning to total outstanding amount for project loans- 12-month moving average Cost of provisioning to total outstanding amount for other corporate loans- 12-month moving average Source: MNB. Debt servicing burdens increased significantly for households having Swiss franc denominated mortgage loans Initial exchange rate Initial APR 135-145 145-155 155-165 165-175 175-185 185-195 195-205 205-215 Total 5,4-5,8 5,8-6,2 6,2-6,6 66,4% 62,1% 57,9% 55,3% 51,3% 47,4% 45,6% 41,8% 38,2% 37,1% 33,5% 30,1% 29,4% 26,1% 22,8% 22,6% 19,4% 16,4% 16,5% 13,5% 10,6% 10,9% 8,1% 5,3% 44,0% 41,5% 43,8% 6,6-7 53,9% 43,7% 34,7% 26,8% 19,7% 13,4% 7,8% 2,6% 7-7,4 7,4-7,8 7,8-8,2 8,2-8,6 50,1% 46,4% 42,9% 39,4% 40,1% 36,7% 33,3% 30,1% 31,3% 28,1% 25,0% 22,0% 23,6% 20,6% 17,6% 14,8% 16,8% 13,9% 11,1% 8,4% 10,6% 7,9% 5,3% 2,7% 5,1% 2,5% 0,0% -2,4% 0,1% -2,4% -4,8% -7,0% 36,3% 32,5% 21,8% 28,8% -1,1% Total 46,5% 42,8% 36,4% 27,1% 18,9% 8,6% 0,7% 4,8% 35,6% Source: MNB. High debt service burden, but the new personal income tax system could help (Debt-service-burden to income ratio by households having loan) 45 per cent per cent 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Maximum HUF HUF 100 000150 000 100 000 HUF 150 000200 000 HUF 200 000300 000 Relative frequiency (2010) Debt servicing burden to households' income (2010) Debt servicing burden to households' income (full sample) above HUF 300 000 2007 2010 Distribution of Creditstock (2010) Debt servicing burden to households' income (2007) Note: The income position of 43 per cent of the respondents with bank loan would improve, for 39 per cent of them would worsen, while for 18 per cent of them it would remain unchanged. Hence, on average high income respondents have larger debts, and they will be better off with the tax amendments. Since 50 per cent of the bank loan portfolio is concentrated in wealthy households, the amendments to the taxation system will have a positive effect on portfolio quality on the whole. . Source: GfK. Rising NPL ratio in each product segment of household lending (90+ delinquency ratio for certain retail product types) 22 Per cent Per cent 22 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 2010Q3 12 2010Q2 12 2010Q1 14 2009Q4 14 2009Q3 16 2009Q2 16 2009Q1 18 2008Q4 18 2008Q3 20 2008Q2 20 Source: MNB. Rising NPL and LTV ratios lead to increasing cost of provisioning 85 per cent Loan-to-value ratio per cent Cost of provisioning per cent 85 3.5 55 0.5 50 50 0.0 Average LTV - FX housing loans Average LTV - HUF housing loans Average LTV - total housing loans Q3 55 Q2 1.0 2010Q1 60 Q4 60 Q3 1.5 Q2 65 2009Q1 65 Q4 2.0 Q3 70 Q2 70 2008Q1 2.5 Q4 75 Q3 75 Q2 3.0 2007Q1 80 2005Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010Q1 Q2 Q3 80 Cost of provisioning to total outstanding amount - 12month moving average Source: MNB. The loan-loss coverage ratio of non-performing mortgage loans is low 70 per cent Corporate and household loans per cent 70 30 per cent Household mortgage loans per cent 30 60 20 20 50 50 10 10 40 40 30 30 -10 -10 20 20 -20 -20 Coverage ratio of household loans Coverage ratio of corporate loans 0 0 Jun - 09 Jul - 09 Aug - 09 Sep - 09 Oct - 09 Nov - 09 Dec - 09 Jan - 10 Feb - 10 Mar - 10 Apr - 10 May - 10 Jun - 10 Jul - 10 Aug - 10 Sep - 10 2007Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010Q1 Q2 Q3 60 Coverage ratio of mortgage loans LTV of non-performing mortgage loan minus 100 per cent Source: MNB. Decreasing residential property prices may increase expected loss on mortgage loans (FHB House Price Index) per cent per cent 10 Q2 09 Q4 09 Q2 08 Q4 08 Q2 07 Q4 85 07 Q2 85 06 Q4 105 06 Q2 105 05 Q4 125 05 Q2 125 04 Q4 145 04 Q2 145 03 Q4 165 03 Q2 165 02 Q4 185 02 Q2 185 01 Q4 205 01 Q2 205 00 Q4 225 00 Q2 225 Real house price (2000 = 100 per cent) Source: FHB. Cost of provisoning may reach its peak in the baseline scenario at the end of this year (Projected cost of provisioning in the baseline scenario by sectors) 4.5 per cent per cent 4.5 Forecast 4.0 3.5 4.0 Non-financial corporations - baseline scenario 3.5 Households - baseline scenario 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Source: MNB. Decreasing profitability, increasing asymmetry 350 ROE and its weighted relative deviation per cent per cent 300 35 45 30 T The dispersion of ROE per cent (weighted by total asset 40 35 250 25 200 20 25 150 15 20 100 10 30 15 10 ROE weighted relative deviation among banks ROE (right-hand scale) Dec-2009 Jun-2010 Sep-2010 Source: MNB. >30 % 25-30 % 20-25 % 15-20 % 10-15 % 5-10 % 0 0-5 % - -5-0 % - 5 <-5 % 5 Dec 2006 Mar 2007 Jun 2007 Sep 2007 Dec 2007 Mar 2008 Jun 2008 Sep 2008 Dec 2008 Mar 2009 Jun 2009 Sep 2009 Dec 2009 Mar 2010 Jun 2010 Sep 2010 50 Adequate capital position along the baseline scenario 50 11 30 40 10 20 30 9 10 20 8 0 CAR weighted relative deviation among banks CAR (right hand scale) Dec-2009 Jun-2010 >13 % 40 12-13 % 12 11-12 % 60 10-11 % 50 9.5-10 % 13 9-9.5 % 70 8.5-9 % 60 The dispersion of CAR (weighted by total assets) per cent 8-8.5 % 14 Dec-2006 Feb-2007 Apr-2007 Jun-2007 Aug-2007 Oct-2007 Dec-2007 Apr-2008 Jun-2008 Aug-2008 Oct-2008 Dec-2008 Feb-2009 Apr-2009 Jun-2009 Aug-2009 Oct-2009 Dec-2009 Feb-2010 Apr-2010 Jun-2010 Aug-2010 80 CAR and its weighted relative deviation per cent per cent Sep-2010 Source: MNB. There is a slowdown in loan-to-deposit ratio adjustment 180 Loan-to-deposit ratio of the Hungarian banking sector % Loan-to-deposit ratios in international comparison (September 2010) Eurozone % 250 CEE EU member states 160 150 150 100 140 50 130 0 Eurozone IT FR NL AT DE BE CEE LV EE LT SI HU BG RO PL SK CZ 200 Jan-07 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-08 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-09 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-10 Mar May Jul Sep 170 Source: MNB. The reliance of the domestic banking sector on external funding remains high 40 External liabilities/Total assets (per cent) 35 Hungary 30 Romania 25 20 Poland 15 10 Czec Republic Slovakia 5 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Short-term external liabilities/External liabilities(per cent) Note: The chart indicates the share of short-term external liabilities by original maturity. The size of the bubbles indicates the ratio of short-term external liabilities to total assets (June 2010). Source: IMF, World Bank, ECB, websites of the central banks. Shortening maturity of external funds is a risk factor Short-term foreign funds of the domestic credit institutions (according to original and remaining maturity) bn EUR % 22 44 Term premia derived from the euro interest rate swap yield curve basispoint 250 40 18 36 200 16 32 14 28 150 12 24 10 20 8 16 6 12 4 8 2 4 0 0 100 50 0 -50 -100 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 20 Short-term external funds of branches (original maturity) Short-term external funds of banks (original maturity) 1×3 1×5 1×10 Short-term external funds (remaining maturity) The ratio of short-term external funds to external funds (original maturity, right hand scale) Source: MNB. Risks surrounding economic growth and lending • Exchange rate of CHF • • Strong CHF endanger domestic economic growth as well (solvency -RWA, liquidity effect, repayment ability of customers) Regulatory risks • The upholding of bank levy has a negative effect on Hungarian banks’ competitiveness (weakened income-generating capacity – issues regarding banking-group funding allocation , higher interest rates on loans in case of passthrough) • Foreclosure and eviction moratorium („moral hazard” - ↑ PD, uncertainties about collaterals - ↑ LGD, impairing mortgage covered bond market) • External economic outlook remains fragile • Increase in sovereign risks • Sizeable government debt issuance, raising fears about potential crowding out of the private sector Low profitability not only in regional comparison but also compared to the performance of parent banks Group-level parent bank and domestic ROE and ROA ratios (per cent) ROE and ROA ratios in the region (per cent) 20 12 CZ 15 PL HU SK BG RO 10 HU - estimated ratios at the end of the year 5 Raiffeisen 10 0 -5 8 BayernLB -15 ROE ROE -10 -20 -25 6 EE -30 Erste HU 4 Intesa Sanpaolo -35 -40 LV -45 HU - estimated ratios at the end of the year 2 LT -50 0 -55 -5 -4 -3 -2 ROA -1 0 1 2 0.0 0.2 0.4 ROA 0.6 0.8 Source: MNB. Without easing of credit supply constraints there will be no sustained credit growth (Forecast for domestic lending (net flows adjusted for exchange rate effects)) 500 bn HUF bn HUF 500 Forecast 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 Risks 0 -100 -200 -200 -300 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -300 -100 Domestic household loans Domestic corporate loans Source: MNB. Due to high capital buffer strong shock-absorbing capacity • Comparison of previous and current stress scenarios: April 2010 2010 2011 GDP -2.2 -1.0 Private sector employment -2.3 -3.1 CPI 5.0 3.5 EUR/HUF exchange rate 315 315 CHF/HUF exchange rate 213 213 Change in CDS premium 200 200 Additional capital need (HUF Bn) 48 November 2010 2010 2011 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 4.7 4.8 319 319 234 234 200 200 41 • In the stress scenario, the ratio of household NPLs will increase in 2011 • Along the stress scenario, the additional need for capital injection (~HUF 40 billion) is manageable , however capital buffer decrease significantly • Additional capital need indicated in April was also HUF 40-50 billion, since then the Swiss franc has became stronger, bank levy has been introduced, but capital adequacy has became higher • Baseline scenario does not, but stress scenario imply need for balance sheet adjustment of the banking system In the stress scenario the cost of provisioning may start to decrease only in 2012 (Projected cost of provisioning in the baseline and stress scenarios by sectors) 4.5 per cent per cent 4.5 Forecast 4.0 3.5 3.0 4.0 Non-financial corporations - baseline scenario Non-financial corporations - stress scenario Households - baseline scenario Households - stress scenario 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Source: MNB. The capital adequacy of the banking sector is adequate in both the baseline and the stress scenarios, but... (The aggregate capital adequacy ratio of the banking system in the baseline and stress scenarios) 15 per cent per cent Forecast 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 CAR - baseline scenario Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 CAR - stress scenario Source: MNB. … along the stress scenario manageable capital need could emerge at individual level (Capital buffer and additional capital need in the baseline and stress scenarios) 1 200 bn HUF bn HUF 1 200 1 100 1 100 1 000 1 000 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 -100 -100 -200 -200 2 010 2 011 With 8 per cent capital requirements 2 010 2 011 With 9 per cent capital requirements Positive capital buffers - baseline scenario Positive capital buffers - stress scenario Capital need - baseline scenario Capital need - stress scenario Source: MNB. Main messages The strong Swiss franc, bank levy and the upholding of moratorium on foreclosures and evictions have had a negative effect on banks’ income-generating capacity. Due to the loss of regional competitive advantage, the Hungarian banking sector might experience disadvantages in banking-groups’ funding allocation All this adds to the risk that credit supply and, consequently, financial system’s contribution to economic growth might decline further. BUT The recent deterioration in the operational environment of the Hungarian banking sector does not endanger financial stability, due to the adequate capital position of domestic banks and the financial strength of their foreign owners.