Key Findings on the Labor Market Experiences of Teen and Young Adults (16-24 Years Old) in the U.S. from 2000 – 2012: Implications for Pathways to Prosperity Andrew Sum, Director Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts March 2013 Key Findings on the Labor Market Experiences of Teen and Young Adults (16-24 Years Old) in the U.S. from 2000 – 2012: Implications for Pathways to Prosperity 1. The Great Age Twist in the Employment Rates of U.S. Adults (16-75) over the 2000 – 2012 Time Period 2. Trends in the Employment Rates of U.S. Teens from 2000 – 2012 and Changes in the Job Distribution by Major Industry and Occupation 3. The Early Labor Market Transition Experiences of High School Graduates Not Enrolled in College 4. Trends in the Employment Rates of the Nation’s 20-24 Year Olds Over the 2000-2012 Period; Variations in Employment Prospects Across Educational Groups; the Steep Rise in Labor Underutilization Among Young Adults 5. The Real Weekly Earnings of Full-Time Employed Young Adults Over the Past Few Decades; the Declining Absolute and Relative Weekly Earnings of Young Full-Time Employed Adults in the U.S.; the Lost Path to Prosperity Absolute Change in Employment-Population Ratio of 16-to-79 Years Old by Single Age, U.S., 1999/2000 and 2011/2012 Absolute Change (In Percentage Points) 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 Age Percent Change in Employment-Population Ratio of 16-to-79 Years Old by Single Age, U.S., 1999/2000 and 2011/2012 80.0 Percent Change in E/P Ratio 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 Age Trends in the Employment / Population Ratios of Teens, Selected Years, 2000 – 2011 (in %) 50 45 45.5 40 37.2 37.6 Per Cent 35 30 26.8 26.3 2010 2011 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2003 2006 Year Trends in the Employment Rates of New High School Graduates Not Enrolled in College in October of the Year of Graduation, Selected Years 1999/2000 – 2011 80.0 Per Cent 70.0 69.6 60.0 57.8 58.6 56.0 51.0 50.0 45.6 45.5 40.0 1999-2000 2003 2007 2008 Year 2009 2010 2011 The Full-Time Employment / Population Ratios of Non-College Bound High School Graduates in October 2011, Class of 2011, All and by Race-Ethnic Group 30.0 24.0 25.0 25.0 21.0 Per Cent 20.0 15.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 0.0 All Black Hispanic Group White, not Hispanic Trends in the Employment / Population Ratios for 20 – 24 Year Olds in the U.S., 2000 – 2012 (in %) 74 72 72.2 70 67.9 Per Cent 68 68.4 66 64 62.1 62 60.7 60.9 2010 2011 61.5 60 58 56 54 2000 2003 2007 2009 Year 2012 Median Real Weekly Earnings of Full-Time Employed 16-24 Year Olds by Gender, U.S., Selected Years, 1973-2012 (in Constant 2012 Dollars) (A) (B) Men Women 1973 662 501 1979 608 477 1989 502 455 1996 449 416 2000 502 456 2001 509 459 2008 492 447 2009 491 454 2012 468 416 Per Cent Change, 1973 – 1989 -24.2% -9.2% Per Cent Change, 1989 – 1996 -10.7% -8.6% Per Cent Change, 1996 – 2001 +13.4% +10.4% Per Cent Change, 2001 – 2012 -8.0% 9.4% Per Cent Change, 1973 – 2012 -29.3% -17.0% Time Period Employment/Population Ratios of 20-24 Year Olds in Selected Educational Attainment Groups in the U.S., 2000-2012 90.0 80.0 70.0 Per Cent 60.0 50.0 80.5 75.4 71.9 60.5 60.2 74.7 61.7 45.5 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 H.S. Dropout H.S. Graduate 13-15 Years BA or Higher Degree Median Weekly Earnings of Young Men (16-24) Relative to Older Men (25 and Over), Selected Years, 1967-2010 (in %) 80.0 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 74.0 67.0 62.4 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 54.3 54.4 51.2 52.2 53.7 54.3 52.5 53.8 53.8 52.5 50.7 Comparisons of the Actual Median Real Weekly Earnings of Full-Time Employed Young Men and the Median Weekly Wages They Would Have Earned If They Had Maintained Their 1967-1973 Real Weekly Earnings Growth Rates, Selected Years 1973-2010 (in 2010 Dollars) 1200 1000 847 1002 1014 483 466 466 443 2001 2007 2009 2010 904 774 800 629 600 976 629 680 707 577 510 400 477 426 200 0 1973 1979 1982 1989 Actual Weekly Earnings 1996 Hypothetical Weekly Earnings