Crisis Management and
Prevention
(Management of Crises in case of Floods and
Volcanic Eruptions)
Giovanni Marizza
gianni.marizza@yahoo.it
14 May 2014, 15,00 – 17,00
Aim of the Module:
• Focusing on Crisis Management in
different situations in order to find lessons
learned
Crises produced by Floods
Case Studies:
• Mediterranean tsunami, 8.000 years ago
• Vajont dam, 1963
• Central Europe, 2002
• Asia Tsunami, 2004
• Katrina hurricane, 2005
• Future, possible events
Crises produced by Floods
Definitions:
• Flood: big, disastrous accumulation of water
• Foreseable floods: monsoons, cyclons, typhoons,
•
•
•
hurricanes
Non-foreseable floods: tsunami, man-made
disasters
Collateral effects (short-medium term):
landslides, pollution of rivers,…
Collateral effects (long term): alluvional plains
6000 bC
(Pre)historical framework
• Sumerians and Babilonians producing beer
• Bosphorus opens, Mediterranean waters
invade Black Sea basin
• Rice cultivation in China
• Agriculture spreads in Nile valley, Greece,
Italy
• First cattle-farms in the Near/Middle East
According to recent archeological findings:
• Huge tsunami in the Mediterranean,
• Coasts of Sicily, Southern Italy, Albania, Greece,
•
•
•
•
Northern Africa from Tunisia to Egypt, Palestine,
Lebanon, Syria, Turkey,
Reason: sinking of 35 km3 of terrain from Etna
Volcano after an earthquake,
Waves 50m high, at high speed
Many neolitic human structures disappeared
Bosphorus, Black Sea, TU: Asia or Europe?
1963
Historical framework:
• Reconstruction of Europe after WW2
• 3 June: Pope Giovanni XXIII dies
• 16 June: Valentina Tereshkova 1st woman
in the Space
• 28 August, MLK at Lincoln Memorial:
“I have a dream!”
• 22 November: JFK killed at Dallas
• 12 December: Kenya independent from
UK
• Italy: “economic miracle”
Vajont Dam, 9 October 1963
• hydroelectric plant, aim: energy for Venice
and Northeastern Italy
• Dam: 115 million m3 water of Piave river
• Landslide: 270 million m3 terrain (Mt Toc)
• 5 villages destroyed (Longarone* +)
• 2.000 victims
• 2008: “international year of Planet Earth”,
Vajont declared “avoidable disaster”
failure by engineers and geologists, who
didn’t understand what they were doing…
• Trials ended 10 years later, without
serious consequences
*Rommel
Lessons (not) learned:
• Gaius Valerius Catullus (1st century bC),
born in Verona, describes similar events in
the same valley
• Crisis prevention. Don’t underestimate
historical events (landslides in the same
area in 1347, 1737, 1748, 1814, 1868,
1908, 1925, 1960)
2002
Historical framework:
• 1 year after 911 and GWOT
• USA activates Guantanamo prison
• Netherlands: Pim Fortuyn killed, trial
against Milosevic begins
• Yugoslav Federation becomes Serbia and
Montenegro
• NATO-Russia Council established
• Turkey abolishes death penalty
• 1 year before 2nd war in Iraq
Central Europe, 2002
August 2002
“Political” Crisis Management:
• Flood just before elections in Germany
• Opinion polls: Chancellor Schroeder losing,
Mr. Stoiber winning
• Ace: picture of Mr. Schroeder in the mud
• Victory of SPD
• 2003: GE (+ FR) vs USA, UK about Iraq
Lessons Learned:
• European Commission engagement
• Sinergy between National States and EU
• European Civil Protection still missing (14 years
•
•
•
after the Italian proposal)
Public disasters influence elections
Without this flood: Chancellor Stoiber, GE (and
FR) supporting campaign in Iraq
Public disasters influence also international
relations, alliances, coalitions, Geopolitics
2004
Historical framework:
• 1 February: Saudi Arabia: 250 pilgrims dye
at Mecca
• Asia: chicken flu spreads
• 11 March: terrorist attacks in Spain
• Cyprus: failure of referendum about
reunification
• April: Iraq, Abu-Ghraib abuses
• 1 May: EU incorporates 10 new members
Tsunami, 26 December 2004
energy of 23.000 Hiroshima-type atomic bombs
• 230.000 victims (incl. hundreds in
Somalia, 1 in Kenya!)
• Nations affected: Bangladesh, Burma,
India, Indonesia, Kenya, Tanzania,
Maldives, Madagascar, Somalia, South
Africa, Sri-Lanka, Thailand
• 230.000 victims (hundreds in Somalia, 1 in
Kenya!)
• Nations affected: Bangladesh, Burma,
India, Indonesia, Kenya, Maldives,
Somalia, Sri-Lanka, Thailand
• Damages: 2 billion USD
• Danger: epidemic diseases
tsunami
Influence on Sri Lanka civil war
• Tsunami hits mostly Tamil-controlled zones
• 27.008 victims in Government-controlled areas,
•
•
•
16.656 victims + 18.481 missing in Tamilcontrolled areas.
16.236 wounded, 578.224 displaced people.
Foreigners: 107 victims
4 years after: May 2009, Tamil Tigers defeated
(by Government or tsunami?)
Lessons Learned:
• Importance of communications (lack of early
•
•
•
warning systems)
Natural disasters can influence the final result of
wars (example: Waterloo)
International aid benefits Governments, not
oppositions (example: Sri Lanka)
International aid used not only for humanitarian
purposes (Sri Lanka, Marshall Plan)
ERP (Marshall Plan)
• No Eastern Europe
• It supported mostly the winners
• It also supported who didn’t fight
• It supported who didn’t receive
damages
• Did it support FR, UK nuclear plans?
(FR 1952, UK 1960)
2005
Historical framework
• 2nd Iraq war ongoing (since 2003)
• Italy: voluntary service substitutes compulsory
•
•
•
•
•
military service
Viktor Yushenko President of Ukraine
Kyoto Protocol in effect (141 countries, no USA)
28 March: earthquake off Sumatra
23 July: AQ attacks Sharm El-Sheikh, 90 victims
Piracy in Somalia/Gulf of Aden erupts
Katrina hurricane, 2005
Katrina hurricane, 2005
Winds: 280 km/h
Katrina hurricane, 2005
New Orleans:
2 weeks after
Reasons:
-building a big city under the level of sea, between a
river and a lake : acceptable 2-3 centuries ago,
-building embankments and pumping water: risky idea
in NL, bad idea in hurricane-area,
-NASA 2000: “within 100 years, New Orleans will be the
new Atlantis”,
-2005: funds for the reinforcement of dams: to Iraqi
War,
-2004: 94 M$ from hurricanes to GWOT,
-Nat Guard: 30% personnel, 50% equipment: in Iraq
Consequences:
-thousands of victims, 1 million homeless,
-many oil platforms destroyed,
-12 oil refineries out of order,
-95% oil and 88% gas produced in the Gulf of Mexico: paralyzed,
-energy crisis,
-political consequences: USA forced to accept foreign aid,
-doubts about Iraqi war,
-doubts about US capabilities
(war + homeland security?)
A recent example:
“Katrina” hurricane
Solution:
NATO Response Force
(again!)
Like in Pakistan earthquake
NATO Response Force
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htm
Launched at Prague Summit, 2002
Proposed by Mr. Rumsfeld
21.000 troops from Army, Navy, Air Force
Aim: oblige European Allies to do more
Lessons Learned:
• NRF established for GWOT, employed twice in
•
•
•
•
•
12 years, always for humanitarian reasons
NRF: keep it ready
Natural disasters influence domestic policy
Katrina: political, internal consequences for Bush
administration (and re-election)
Gulf of Mexico: same problems for Mr. Obama?
Natural disasters also influence foreign policy
and Geopolitics (Iraq)
Mediterranean, 2020 (?)
• Is a tsunami possible in the Mediterranean?
• Events already occurred:
-8.000 years ago (the biggest ever),
-365 bC: tsunami (origin: south of Creta) destroys
the coastal zone of Egypt,
-1693: submarine earthquake hits eastern coast
of Sicily
-1831-32: Ferdinandea island / Graham
Ferdinand II
Borbone
King of Two Sicilies
Mediterranean, 2020 (?)
• Is a tsunami possible in the Mediterranean?
• Events already occurred:
-8.000 years ago (the biggest ever),
-365 bC: tsunami (origin: south of Creta) destroys
coasts of Egypt,
-1693: submarine earthquake hits east coast of Sicily
-1831-32: Ferdinandea / Graham
-1908: Messina earthquake generates a tsunami
provoking thousands victims
-2002: small tsunami off Stromboli
Marsili, Magnaghi, Vavilov, Cassini,
Secchi, Issel, Poseidone, Marchi, Flavio
Gioia, Palinuro,…
• www.naturamediterraneo.com
Marsili
Flavio Gioia
Vavilov
Lessons learned???
Mt. Epomeo, Ischia: a volcano
Last eruption: AD 1302
ALARMISM?
SUPERFICIALITY?
Crises produced by
Volcanic Eruptions
6 case studies:
-Vesuvius, …
-Tambora, 1815
-Krakatoa, 1883
-Pinatubo, 1991
-Anatahan, 2005
-Eyjafjallayokull, 2010
79 AD
1631
1760
1794
1872
March 1944
[Picture taken by US troops]
• “These Italians show an apparent indifference,
very remarkable, towards the disaster. I
expected demonstrations of panic, desperate
women, crazy men and children. Nothing at all.
People gathered in groups, looking at the slow
sacrifice of the village, as it was a casual fire.
The doctor of the village interrupted saving
some goods of him and showed me a good
observation point. There were also some signs
of humor”
(Manchester Guardian’s envoy, 22 March, 1944)
Lessons NOT learned:
Lessons NOT learned:
1815
Historical framework:
-26 February: Napoleon escapes from Elba,
-April: eruption of Tambora volcano,
Indonesia,
-9 June: end of Vienna Congress (started
in Nov 1814),
-18 June: Napoleon defeated at Waterloo,
-26 September: Austria, Russia, Prussia:
Holy Alliance,
Tambora, 1815
-Sumbawa island, 1.000 km far from Jakarta,
-10.000 victims immediately, 85.000 later (hunger,
disease),
-before explosion: 4.000 mt, after: 1.000,
-heavy ash: 2,5 million km2
-light ash: huge cloud, athmosphere, stratosphere, up
to Europe, America for 2 years
-1815: “year without summer”
-climatic changes, rainshowers and thunderstorms in
Europe and America, famine in Ireland, emigration,
INTERVENTION
IN DISASTER
RELIEF
napoleone
-18 June: Napoleon unable to employ his Cavalry and
Artillery,
Major General
-tactical result: Napoleon defeated (by
Anglo-Prussians
Giovanni
MARIZZA
or by a volcano?)
TURIN, April 18th, 2008
-strategic result: new world order
Lessons Learned:
-serious consequences, even on the other side
of the world,
-volcanic eruptions can influence Geopolitics
1883
Historical framework:
-24 May: New York, Brooklin Bridge inauguration,
-28 July: earthquake in Ischia: 2.333 victims,
-29 July: Benito Mussolini is born,
-30 October: treaty between Austria-Hungary and
Romania to counter Russian influence in the
Balkans,
Krakatoa, Indonesia, 1883
BEFORE
AFTER
• The biggest ever eruption in
the world,
• Biggest ever noise in the
history (heard at 5.000 km),
• Power: 200 Megatons,
• Air waves: 7 times around
the world,
• Spectacular sunsets
everywhere for years
Munch: “Shrijk” (1893)
Lessons Learned:
-still active (last eruption: 1994),
-keep distant (not less than 3 km),
-biological aspect: life disappeared, after 50
years: 270 new species,
-according to experts: a new destructive
explosion in the near future (like in 1883,
but with a much higher density of
population)
1991
Historical framework:
-first call by a GSM cellphone,
-9 January: Soviet troops occupy Vilnius trying
to stop the independence of Lithuania,
-11 January: US Congress authorizes
President Bush to attack Iraq,
-Gulf war, Iraq launches 45 SCUD missiles on
Israel,
-1 February: South Africa, end of apartheid,
-9 April: Georgia declares the independence,
-21 May: India, Rajiv Gandhi killed,
-25 June: Croatia, Slovenia independent,
-6 August: www,
-19 August: coup in USSR, solved by Eltsin,
-26 December: URSS disbanded
Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991
-June: eruption, 1.000 dead, 1 million homeless,
-US military bases: Subic Bay (75 km from the
volcano) and Clark (25 km),
-everything transferred to USA, Guam, Okinawa,
Hawaii,
-Clark Mil Base (633 km2, built in 1903 after the
war with Spain) destroyed,
-Subic Bay Naval Base to the local Government,
-huge ash cloud up to Russia and North America,
-in other times: no operations during WWII and
Vietnam conflict,
-in August 1945: no “Enola Gay” to Hiroshima
Lessons Learned:
-volcanic eruptions influence military
operations (projection of power),
-volcanic eruptions can change the
History,
2005
Historical framework
• 2nd Iraq war ongoing (since 2003)
• 10 January: Abu Mazen replaces Arafat
• Italy: voluntary service substitutes compulsory
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
military service
Karol Wojtyla dies, Josef Ratzinger elected
Viktor Yushenko President of Ukraine
Kyoto Protocol in effect (141 countries, no USA)
28 March: earthquake off Sumatra
7 July: terroristic attacks in London,
23 July: AQ attacks Sharm El-Sheikh, 90 victims
Piracy in Somalia/Gulf of Aden erupts
Anatahan, Pacific, 2005
-200 miles north of Guam,
-ash cloud: temporary closure of
Andersen Base, Guam,
-strategic importance of Guam
Projection of power,
9 out of 15 Mariana Islands have active volcanos
(1 eruption every 5 years)
Lessons Learned:
-Andersen Air Base (Guam) in danger like
Clark,
-USA: “Volcano Hazards Program” (USGS
and Southern Methodist University), a
250.000 USD project monitorizing volcanic
activities in SE Asia,
-creation of an Early Warning System
Eyjafjallayokull, 2010
1940
Battle of
England
1944, Montecassino
1945
Dresda
1948-49
Berlin Air Bridge
Lessons Learned:
- volcanic eruptions can influence military operations
-… change the outcome of wars,
-… endanger civil aviation,
-… stop air traffic
Grimsvotn, Iceland
May 2011
Suggestions for Thesis:
• How Crises influence international
politics: the case of volcanic
eruptions
• What if? The case of a possible
tsunami in the Mediterranean
Crisis Management and
Prevention
(Management of Crises in case of Floods and
Volcanic Eruptions)
Giovanni Marizza
gianni.marizza@yahoo.it
14 May 2014, 15,00 – 17,00