The Coming Power of Wind:
Perspectives and Prospects
Soirée Technique, Dec 8th
Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources
Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn
Delft University of Technology
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This talk is about:
Prospects:
.. they are different.
substantial helpful
effect on climate
major component of
energy security
long term price stability
re-think way we run
power system
Perspectives:
..they are many.
policy makers and lawyers
investors
electricity grid and market operators
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Global: the
“stabilization triangle”
substantial helpful
effect on climate
European level:
About 25-30% of efforts
Image credit: cmi.princeton.edu
200 Gt, in next 50 years:
Each wedge: GT/year
Install 2TW of wind;
provide about 5 PWh
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We’re coupling our energy system
to climate patterns, and to
weather patterns.
Regional-but
renewable
Image credit: The Atmosphere, 8th edition,
Lutgens and Tarbuck, 8th edition, 2001
Variable,
but predictable.
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Will climate change affect wind power projects?
Michelangeli and Loukos, 2007
Rough reasoning anticipates
future reduction in yield…
..detailed models confirm.
Effect varies over globe;
depends on local features;
hard to predict.
Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007
Will wind power
projects cause
climate changes?
wind energy
conversion
requires momentum
transfer.
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Will wind power
projects cause
climate changes?
Brand 2009
minimum safe distance (2-10%
deficit): order of tens of
kilometers
the recovery distance (1%
Deficit): hundreds of kilometers.
Brand 2009
Christiansen and Hasager 2005
Wake effect:
becoming of
legal interest
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Will wind power
projects cause
climate changes?
Keith, 2004
Change global mean temperature?
Detectable but negligible compared to
anthropogenic forcing.
Takel, 2011
Wind power affects
crops, local weather?
First indication:
helpful or neutral;
but research just starting
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Is there even that much wind power?
Physical Potential
Hoogwijk 2004
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Is there even that much wind power?
Hoogwijk 2004
Technical: 96 PWh/year,
Economic: 53 PWh/year at 0.13 €/kWh
21 PWhr/year at 0.052 €/kWh
versus 15 PWh/year global electricity consumption
of global electricity consumption
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Is there even that much wind power?
Many regions have resource exceeding consumption, costs differ.
3 PWh/year
European electricity consumption in 2008:
Hoogwijk 2004
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How much has been built?
As of 2004, about 0.05% of the economic potential was developed
As of 2010: perhaps 0.4%.
Source: GWEC
Growth rate of last 5 years: ~27%
(doubles every ~3 years)
Is there enough money to build it all?
Global: 0.5T USD a year to meet 450 PPM
(vs bond market 90 T USD)
Europe: to meet EU targets, 30-65 billion a year
(vs bond market 23 T, GDP of Europe: 16T)
Trend in pension fund investment in infrastructure: estimated at 1 T a year
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Addressing investment risk: significant deployment barrier
Samec 2011
Sources of risk: resource uncertainty, inflation, construction delay
Mitigation instruments: wind derivatives, loan guarantees, construction insurance
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Generation mix: limits and changes in thinking
30% renewable energy scenario studied in North America: (image credits NREL)
Total system load:
wind
coal
nuclear
Inflexible generation can impose
minimum generation limit:
“Cycling” of units uncomfortable;
Need emerges for new types
Storage or transmission
needed to avoid
curtailment
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Variability and Uncertainty
Provision always
existed for changes:
both anticipated
and unexpected.
Image credit:Makarov et al, PNNL-19189, 2010
Madsen and Pinson: imm.dtu.dk, 2009
Wind power
forecasts a
common tool in
control rooms.
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Example:
Denmark
First to pioneer
controllable wind
power, because
forecasts not
perfect.
Image credit:
upwind.eu
“Soft Storm Transition” or
“Storm Control”:
Farm-level control using pitch
Wind
speed
(m/s)
Image credit:
upwind.eu
Power
production
(MW)
0
minutes
2
Image credit: Gijs van Kuik, TU Delft, DUWIND
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Example:
Denmark
Image credit: Energinet
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Switched Power Electronics Interfaces
Synchronous Machine
(traditional)
Power Electronic Interface
simple, fixed, strong
Complex, flexible,
relatively fragile
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Example:
Ireland
An island electric power system
Must be mostly selfsufficient, even for
short periods
Contingency event:
Loss of big generator,
or introduction of
big load
Hirvonen 2003
In first instances:
Need to use energy
stored in system’s
rotating masses
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Example:
Ireland
70-80%
System
60-70%
collapses
System
splits in half, immediately
collapses.
2008/2009
range of
operation
Wind turbine
rotors not
forced to be
synchronous:
->
several
related problems
Eirgrid, All-Island TSO Facilitation of Renewables Studies, Final Study Report
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Example:
Spain
Electricity grid behaviour during a fault (lightening,
tree, etc)
generators can help by
staying connected,
in spite of voltage transient:
Image credit: RED Eléctrica España
formerly allowed
disconnect level
new requirement
typical transient
Bömer 2011
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Example:
Spain
Wind power production behaviour *before* “ridethrough” requirement: nuclear sized dips.
Image credit: RED Eléctrica España
How are the worst situations avoided?
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!

Image credit: RED Eléctrica España
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Wrapping up:
From all these perspectives,
which ideas to take home ?
We’re coupling our energy system
to the climate in a new way.
Variability and uncertainty in our
power system: not a new thing, but
changes can be expected
Generation is always a mixture;
wind power plants their own
animal offering challenges but
also benefits