Make Your Move
Alan Beaulieu
ITR Economics™
www.itreconomics.com
2012 Forecast Results
GDP
Duration Forecast
12
$13.593
2
Estimates
$13.566 (-0.2%)
US Ind Prod.
31
98.0 (12MMA)
97.2
(- 0.8%)
EU Ind. Prod.
12
100.4 (12MMA)
98.9
(-1.5%)
CA Ind. Prod.
8
96.7
96.4
(-0.3%)
Retail Sales
30
$2.186 Trillion
$2.140
(-2.1%)
Housing
6
743
772
( 3.9%)
Employment
33
143.9 million
142.5
(-1.0%)
CPI
9
2.8%
2.1%
Ths Units
* End of year 12-month index estimate
www.itreconomics.com
Results for 2011
Country
Germany
3
Duration
12
Accuracy
98.0%
France
18
99.9%
Italy
18
99.9%
United Kingdom
18
99.9%
Spain
18
98.6%
China
17
96.7%
Japan
15
95.9%
Brazil
14
96.7%
EU Industries
14
94.1%
www.itreconomics.com
US Industrial Production to
Gross Domestic Product
4
12
12
8
8
4
4
2.4%
0
0
-4
-4
-3.1%
-8
-8
-5.3%
-7.1%
-12
-12
GDP
-14.6%
US IP
-16
-16
'82
'84
'86
Year-over-year
Quarter to Quarter
(3/12)
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
www.itreconomics.com
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
US Industrial Production Growth
5
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
12/12 annual growth rate
www.itreconomics.com
Real Gross Domestic Product
6
14.5
14.5
14.0
14.0
13.5
13.5
13.0
13.0
12.5
12.5
12.0
12.0
11.5
11.5
11.0
11.0
10.5
10.5
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
Trillions of $
www.itreconomics.com
'13
'14
'15
US Industrial Production to
Wholesale Trade Durable Goods
7
US IP
15
Wholesale
24
10
16
5
8
0
0
-5
-8
-10
-16
US IP
Wholesale
-15
'94
'96
-24
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
12/12 Rates-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
US Industrial Production to
Wholesale Trade Nondurable Goods
8
US IP
10
Wholesale
20
5
10
0
0
-5
-10
-10
-20
US IP
Wholesale
-15
'94
'96
-30
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
12/12 Rates-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
Wholesale Trade Petroleum & Petroleum
Products to Crude Oil Futures Prices
9
Petroleum
75
Oil
90
50
60
25
30
0
0
-25
-30
Petroleum
Goods
-50
-60
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
12/12 Rates-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
US Industrial Production to Wholesale
Trade Machinery, Equipment & Supplies
10
US IP
18
Wholesale
30
12
20
10.5
6
10
3.7
0
0
-6
-10
US IP
-12
-20
Wholesale
-18
-30
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
12/12 Rates-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade
Chemicals & Allied Products
11
US IP
10
Wholesale
20
5
10
0
0
-5
-10
-10
-20
US IP
Wholesale
-15
'94
'96
-30
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
12/12 Rates-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
Wholesale Trade Electrical &
Electronic Goods
12
R-O-C
30
MMA
730
3/12
12/12
15
630
2.9
2.2
0
530
-15
430
378.6
-30
330
12MMA
3MMA
-45
230
-60
130
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
Bils of $
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
Wholesale Trade Hardware & HVAC Equipment &
Supplies to US Industrial Production
13
Wholesale
30
US IP
15
20
10
10
5
0
0
-10
-5
-20
-10
Wholesale
US IP
-30
'94
'96
-15
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
12/12 Rates-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
Recovery
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
14
Leading indicators pointing up
Liquidity is not an issue
Exports are up
Stimulative monetary policy
Employment rising (companies right-sized)
Banks are lending
Retail Sales
Construction spending is improving
www.itreconomics.com
Areas of Concern
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Europe’s financial troubles …
China recession? …
Massive legislative changes…
Oil prices could break through $120 …
Fiscal Cliff…
Tax Hikes…
Massive deficit and growing nat’l debt
www.itreconomics.com
15
National Defense Expenditures to
Defense Capital Goods N.O.
16
Expenditures
20
Orders
75
Expenditures
Orders
16
60
12
45
8
30
4
15
0
0
-4
-15
-8
-30
Carter
-12
1975
Reagan
Bush
Clinton
Bush
Obama
-45
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
12/12 Rates-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
2005
2010
2015
Western Europe Industrial Production
17
Year-Over-Year
Growth Rates %
www.itreconomics.com
Global Leading Indicators
18
R-O-C
10
80
8
64
6
48
4
32
0.1
2
16
0.0
0
0
-1.4
-2
-16
-4
-32
OECD Total
-6
-48
EU Manufacturing PMI
-8
-64
JP Morgan Global MFG PMI
-10
-80
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
1/12 Rates-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
'12
'13
'14
Tax Revenue and Top Marginal Rates Compared,
1930-2012
40-Year Average
www.itreconomics.com
Source: Tax Policy Center; Historical Tables, OMB;
CBO Alternative Scenario.
Produced by Veronique de Rugy,
Mercatus Center at George Mason University
19
International Comparison of Spending on Health,
1980-2008
www.itreconomics.com
20
Costs by Age Categories
21
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Caught in the Web
Who can do what to whom
22
Federal Reserve Act of 1913
32 pages
Glass-Steagall Act
37
Dodd-Frank
848
Not rules, but instructions on how to create more
regulations and bureaucracies
Source: The Economist
www.itreconomics.com
Total U.S. Public Debt
23
140
140
120.0
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
(% of GDP)
www.itreconomics.com
1990
2000
2010
0
2020
World Countries Industrial Production
Year-Over-Year Growth Rates %
www.itreconomics.com
24
Global Industrial Production Indices
25
20
20
3.9
10
Mexico
10
3.7
US
0.7
SE Asia
0
0
-10
-0.5
Japan
-1.6
Europe
-2.5
Brazil
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
12/12 Rates-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
'10
'12
'14
'16
US Manufacturing as a % of GDP (Value Added)
26
18
18
16
16
14
14
12.2%
12
12
11.0%
10
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
3MMA
www.itreconomics.com
'06
'08
'10
10
'12
'14
'16
Copper Price Trend
27
5.00
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.00
4.00
3.50
3.50
3.00
3.00
2.50
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
$ per pound, 3MMA
www.itreconomics.com
'11
'12
'13
Crude Oil Futures Prices
28
150
150
125
125
94.05
100
100
91.82
75
75
50
50
RAW
12MMA
25
25
0
0
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
Light & Sweet $ per Barrel,
Data Trends
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Declining
Net imports as a share of domestic consumption
60%
60%
58%
29
57%
52%
49%
45%
www.itreconomics.com
Trends 10
30
Nonresidential
Construction
Production
Retail Financial
Housing
B
C
Wholesale Trade
0
New Orders
0
Foreign
A
Medical
Soft Landing
Soft Landing
D
Hard Landing
www.itreconomics.com
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders w/o Aircraft
31
R-O-C
MMT
40
1600
3/12
20
12/12
1400
0.6
0
1200
-5.6
-20
1000
-40
$762.0
12MMT
3MMT
-60
800
600
-80
400
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
Billions of $
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
US Industrial Production to
ITR Leading Indicator
32
US IP
21
Indicator
21
14
14
7
7
0
0
-7
-7
-14
-14
Indicator - Monthly
US IP - 12/12
-21
-21
'80
'82
'84
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
USIP – 12/12
Indicator - Monthly
www.itreconomics.com
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
University of Michigan Consumer
Expectations Index
33
60
60
45
45
30
29.5
30
15
18.2
15
0
0
-15
-15
-30
-30
3/12
12/12
-45
-45
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
12/12 Rate-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
'12
'13
'14
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
34
0.9
0.9
Feb '12
0.1
0.1
-0.4
Sep '11
-0.7
-0.7
-1.5
-1.5
-2.3
-2.3
-3.1
-3.1
-3.9
-3.9
6MMA
-4.7
-4.7
'07
'08
'09
'10
6 Month Moving Average
www.itreconomics.com
'11
'12
'13
Purchasing Managers Index
35
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
Raw
30
30
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
Raw Data
www.itreconomics.com
'06
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
Ratio of Inventories to New Orders
36
1.2
1.2
Dec '10
1.1
1.1
1.013
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
RIO
Dec '09
0.8
0.8
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
Raw Data
www.itreconomics.com
'12
'13
'14
US Leading Indicator
37
120
120
100
100
95.5
80
80
Actual
12MMA
60
'94
'96
'98
60
'00
'02
'04
'06
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
Stock Prices Index
38
R-O-C
60
MMA
4200
1/12
12/12
30
3400
13.4
8.3
0
2600
-30
1800
12MMA
Actual
1386.5
-60
1000
-90
200
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
S&P 500, 1941-43 = 10
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
Corporate Bond Prices
39
50
50
Sep '12
40
30
40
30
26.6
20
20
10
10
0
0
Aug '11
3/12
-10
-10
12/12
-20
-20
'08
'09
'10
'11
Rates-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
'12
'13
'14
Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
40
R-O-C
14
MMT
3.50
3/12
12/12
7
3.00
2.6
2.2
0
2.50
$2.131
12MMT
-7
2.00
3MMT
-14
1.50
-21
1.00
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Trillions of 82-84$
www.itreconomics.com
'10
'12
'14
'16
Personal Savings
41
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16
Billions of $,
Annual Data Trend
SAAR
www.itreconomics.com
Housing Starts
42
R-O-C
60
MMT
5.2
35.5
28.1
3/12
30
4.2
12/12
0
3.2
12MMT
3MMT
-30
2.2
-60
1.2
0.780
-90
0.2
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
Millions of Units
www.itreconomics.com
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
Remodeling Market Index
43
75
75
60
60
56.1
53.6
51.4
45
45
42.6
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
30
30
15
15
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
3MMA
www.itreconomics.com
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
US Industrial Production
to Private Non-Residential Construction
44
Construction
30
Private Construction
US IP
20
2013 3.5%
US IP
21
14
2014 4.5%
10
7
0
0
-10
-20
-30
-7
Additions and Alteration
Commercial Buildings
-4.7% D
Office & Bank Alterations -6.9% A
Stores & Restaurants
-0.4% D
'82
'84
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
-14
-21
'98
'00
'02
12/12 Rates-of-Change
www.itreconomics.com
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
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