Standard Life Wealth The Investment Specialists Darren Ripton – Head of Investment Process Confidential Restricted – Not to be disclosed beyond authorised roles within Standard Life group or authorised third parties So what could go wrong over the next 2 years ? Here are some of the “known unknowns!” • Euro zone break up • The Euro zone stays together! • Disruption around the US Elections followed by deficit reduction plan • Deleveraging process across the Developed World • A Chinese hard landing / Issues around the Politburo Reshuffle • Inflation vs Deflation • Political Interference to increase • Conflict in Iran / Oil Price Shock • 59 Countries will have completed elections in 2012 • Elections in 2013 include Germany, Italy and Japan The “unknown unknowns” are just depressing! 2 Long periods of volatility and no growth Empirical observation: 1,000,000 US equity market total returns, inflation adjusted Log scale, January 1871 to Aug 2010 Data source: Professor Robert Schiller, Yale University over the long term, equities (shares) have provided investors with high, real (inflation adjusted) returns. 100,000 10,000 10 years … 1,000 17 years 17 years 20 years (The U.S. Equity market is shown simply because this is the longest data set of equity market returns available.) 100 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Warning: Past performance is not a guide to future performance 3 Correlation between asset classes has increased Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, 31 May 2012 4 Increasing Certainty The benefit of our dynamic asset allocation approach Clients need access to their wealth at specific points on the yellow line. • Our approach is to stay as close as possible at all times “ Your goals are our benchmarks, not the market 5 Y ie ld US Eq uit y Cr ed Ko it re a nE qu Ru ity ss ian Eq Gl Eu uit ob y ro p al ea Inf nE lat qu io n UK it y -Li nk In v ed Eu e stm ro p Bo nd en ea s tG nI nv ra d es eC tm r ed en tG it rad eC red it UK Eq uit y Gl US ob Lo al ng Lo E ng US qu it y Bo Do nd Me lla Y ie rv xic sE lds an ur o (F Go orw Lo ve ng r nm ard Br en Sta az tB illia rt) on nR ds Lo ea v ng s lv Eu US sC ro ze Do ch l l a Lo rv Ko ng sC r un US an a ad Do ian lla rv D o ll sJ ar ap an Lo es ng eY Eq en uit yV ola Eu tilit ro p y ea FX nB H o Br n e d d o US gin ad Y ie g vs Eq ld Fin uit Ste yT an Fin e p ec c e a ial ne nc hn Se r ial olo cto Se gy rE cto Se qu rv c to it y sB rv r oa sU dC SE r ed qu US it y it Re Eq Sm lat uit a ll iv e yL C arg Va ap ria ev nc sU Ch eI ina S n Eq co Eq me uit uit yS yv ma sU l l K Ca Eq p uit yV o la tilit Sto y ck Se lec tio n Div ers ific Ex ati pe on cte dV ola tilit y Hig h Risk profile of multi-market return strategy 25% Security selection 20% Relative value Directional Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 31 March 2012 Diversification benefits Expected volatility The portfolio is exposed to multiple diversified market risks 15% 16.3% 10% Market returns 5.7% 0% 22.0% is total stand-alone investment risk chasing returns 5% Equivalent equity volatility is 18.8% Independent risk analysis shows the benefits of investment diversification 6 Consistency should build into long-term Performance It’s all about the compounding of those positive returns Frequency of Monthly Returns August '08 to May '12 Our portfolios are designed to produce more consistent returns 14 12 Cumulative returns # SLW Portfolios 29.0% (after fees) FTSE® All-Share (TR) 16.0% (no fees) Volatility * SLW Portfolios FTSE® All-Share (TR) 5.6% 18.5% 8 6 4 2 12% to 13% 9% to 10% 6% to 7% 3% to 4% 0% to 1% -3% to -2% -6% to -5% -9% to -8% 0 -12% to -11% Track Record so far low volatility of returns on target to exceed return objectives over 3 years 10 -15% to -14% SLW Portfolios’ Aims Low volatility of returns Target returns over 3 years Number of Months They are not built to produce very high one-month returns, as equities can but they are built to try to avoid the big losses that equities can also suffer Distribution of returns SLW Model Portfolio FTSE All-Share (TR) Source: Standard Life Wealth # 31/7/08 to 31/05/12 * Standard deviation of monthly returns, annualised Past performance is not a guide to future performance 7 Strategy in practice Comparison of Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy with the FTSE All Share and APCIMS Balanced The data in the illustration shows the representative performance of a SLW medium risk portfolio targeting a Libor +3% return after fees and charges. The index is the APCIMS Balanced Total Return Index and the data shown is for the same periods as the SLW data. The APCIMS and FTSE® All Share index returns do not include fees. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Source: SLW, Bloomberg, BBH, TDW (31/07/2008 to 31/05/2012) For investment professionals only 8 2012 year to date performance summary Core Portfolio Performance YTD 110.00 109.00 108.00 107.00 106.00 104.00 103.00 102.00 101.00 100.00 99.00 APCIMS Balanced Return YTD SLW YTD FTSE All Share Return YTD 98.00 28/05/2012 21/05/2012 14/05/2012 07/05/2012 30/04/2012 23/04/2012 16/04/2012 09/04/2012 02/04/2012 26/03/2012 19/03/2012 12/03/2012 05/03/2012 27/02/2012 20/02/2012 13/02/2012 06/02/2012 30/01/2012 23/01/2012 16/01/2012 09/01/2012 97.00 02/01/2012 Cumulative 105.00 Date The data in the illustration shows the representative performance of a SLW medium risk portfolio targeting a Libor +3% return after fees and charges. The index is the APCIMS Balanced Total Return Index and the data shown is for the same periods as the SLW data. The APCIMS and FTSE® All Share index returns do not include fees. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Source: SLW, Bloomberg, BBH, TDW (31/12/2011 to 31/05/2012) For investment professionals only 9 Client Risks For investment professionals only Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and cannot be guaranteed. The SIA Fund The SIA Fund is designed to be used as part of a strategic approach to individual client wealth objectives and should not be considered as a stand-alone investment. The SIA Fund is only suitable for those investors who require a separate asset allocation fund to be used in conjunction with their existing investments, primarily global equities, to achieve an overall objective of a total return. The fund is designed to generate an absolute return when viewed with other assets in the client’s portfolio. As a result, if other assets in the portfolio are performing well, this fund may not produce a positive return. The use of derivatives in the fund may result in increased volatility in the fund’s price. Due to the leveraged nature of derivatives, gains and losses can be greater than associated with traditional investment instruments. The fund will have the ability to hold short derivative positions. This means that the fund will not necessarily follow market trends i.e. if stock markets rise the fund may not do so at the same rate, or at all. *"FTSE" is a trademark of the London Stock Exchange Plc and The Financial Times Limited and is used by FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") under licence. Standard Life Wealth is licensed by FTSE to redistribute the FTSE All Share and FTSE 100. All rights in and to the FTSE All Share and FTSE 100 vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. All information is provided for reference only. Neither FTSE nor its licensors shall be responsible for any error or omission in the FTSE All Share and FTSE 100. 10 Standard Life Wealth Limited (SC317950), Discretionary Investment Manager, registered in Scotland at 1 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 2LL, and Standard Life Savings Limited (SC180203), ISA Plan Manager, registered in Scotland at Standard Life House, 30 Lothian Road, Edinburgh EH1 2DH, are both authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Call 0845 279 8880 for Standard Life Wealth and 0845 279 2002 for Standard Life Savings. Calls may be recorded/monitored and call charges may vary. www.standardlifewealth.com. © 2011 Standard Life 11