Assessing the Impact
of Sea Level Rise on Representative
Military Installations in the Southwestern US
Dr. Bart Chadwick
SPAWAR Systems Center Pacific
SERDP Symposium
December, 2010
Project Team
SPAWAR Systems Center Pacific – Dr. Bart Chadwick, Dr.
Pei-Fang Wang, Marissa Brand, William Wild
TerraCosta Consulting Group - Dr. Reinhard Flick, Dr. Robert
Guza, Dr. William O'Reilly, Dr. Peter Bromirski, Dr. Adam
Young, Walter Crampton
UCSD: San Diego Supercomputer Center – Dr. John Helly
SDSU: Global Change Research Group – Dr. Walt Oechel
US Geological Survey – Dr. Tracy Nishikawa
Army Corps of Engineers - Dr . Kevin Knutti
Moffat-Nichol/Blaylock - Matthew Martinez, Issac Canner
2
Technical Objective

Coastal military installation
vulnerabilities
Region-specific SLR scenarios
Southwest US

Evaluate & apply framework


– Naval Base Coronado
– Marine Corps Base Camp
Pendleton
3
Installations
Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton




Nation’s premier amphibious training
base
Occupies approximately 125,000 acres
along 17 miles of the southern
California coast
Supports ~41,000 personnel
Current value over $3.6 billion
Marine Corps Base
Camp Pendleton
Naval Base Coronado



Serves a critical mission to arm, repair,
provision, service, train and support
the U.S. Pacific Fleet
Unique combination of airfields,
airspace, training ranges, and
installations
Supports 21 squadrons, >220 aircraft,
3 carriers, and ~36,000 personnel 4
Assessment Framework –
Sources, Pathways and Receptors




Sources - key SL
drivers for
southwest US
Pathways – Link
sources to
receptors via
physical impact
Receptors common DoDspecific installation
elements
Site-specific
questions and
scenarios
Sources/Stressors
Pathways
Local Mean Sea Level
Receptors
Waterfront structures
Subsidence and Uplift
Inundation
Coastal structures
Atmospheric-Oceanic
Processes
Flooding
Buildings
Storm Surge
Erosion
Training and testing lands
Precipitation
Intrusion
Civil Infrastructure
Tides
Water Level
Military and Civilian
Personnel
Non-Tide Residuals
Waves
Protective Buffers and
Natural resources
5
Assessment Framework - Conceptual Model

Flooding, Beach & Cliff Losses - Combinations of
MSLR, Climate Variability, Tides, Waves & Runup
Maximum Potential Flooding Elevation
6m
4m
3.5 m
Episodic Risks
PDO
1.5 m
Sea Level
Today
ENSO
2m
Ocean Warming + Ice Melt
0m
Long-Term Risks
Southwest
SL Today
Southwest
SL 2100+
6
Total WL
Sea Level Source Components
Sea Level Scenarios - Method
B1,A2 Future Climate Scenarios
SERDP
Prescribed Sea
Level for 2100
CCSM3 Global Climate Model
Harmonic Tide
Model
Predictions
ACoE
Quadratic
Model
Local Mean Sea
Level Curves
Local Non-Tide
Residuals
Local Tides
Wave Watch III
Model
CDIP Model
Local Waves &
Runup
Groundwater
Protected Bays and Estuaries
Exposed Shorelines
7
Sea Level Scenarios - Combined
Combine prescribed future
MSL scenarios with SL
variability over a range of
return periods
100
Tide and non-Tide (CCSM3-A2, 2000-2099)
10
Return Period (Years)

Decade
1
Year
0.1
Month
3.0
Week
SERDP 2.0
Tide + NTR
Day
2.5
Meters (NAVD)
0.01
NRC III
0.001
1.3
2.0
1.4
1.5
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Water Level (m NAVD)
SL Variability vs. Return Period
NRC I
100
1.0
SS0160 Total Runup
MSL = 0.774 m
10
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Include relevant SL
components based on
exposure - groundwater,
protected bays, exposed
beaches
Return Period (Years)

1.7
NRC II
1.5
0.5
2000
1.6
Decade
1
Year
0.1
Month
Week
0.01
Tide + NTR +Runup
Day
0.001
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Water Level (m NAVD)
3.0
3.5
4.0
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Coastal System Delineation



Compile geophysical system data
Compile installation data
Integrate within a geospatial visualization and analysis
system
– Capability for superimposing hydraulically-connected water levels
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Coastal System Delineation

Digital terrain with GIS infrastructure overlays

“Dose-Response” type
curves for installation
sensitivity to sea level
rise
Naval Base Coronado
Cummulative Flooding (% of installatiton)
100%
80%
Inland Buildings/Infra
60%
Airfields
Ammunition Bunkers
Stormwater Conveyance
40%
Near-Shore Buildings/Infra
Ship-Shore Interface
Beach Rec Facilities
Beach Training Facilities
20%
Beach Training Areas
0%
MSL
0
1
2
3
4
5
Total Water Level (m NAVD)
6
7
8
Physical Effects Long-Term
- Exposed
Shorelines
Shorelines (Seasonal Variations
and Sand Budget Effects)




Long-term
equilibrium shoreline
Seasonal variability historical data
Constrain with sand
budget
Translate shoreline
change to future
terrain model
Future Conditions (2100)
Current
Conditions
Future Beach (Land)
Seasonal variations ~
40 meters between
summer and winter
Future Summer
Shoreline
Beach line if sand
budget is positive
Current Winter
Shoreline
Ocean
Current Summer
Shoreline
Future Mean
Shoreline
Beach Retreat at
2100 from SLR
(Brunn’s Rule)
160
PN1110
140
Beach Width (m NAVD)
Future Winter
Shoreline
Beach (Land)
Current Mean
Shoreline
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1940
Historical Profiles
"Bruun-ish" Model (NRC II) + Seasonal
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
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Assessment of Vulnerability


Location/
Return Period
Condition
NBC
SS0160
With Runup

Defined scenarios and stakeholder identified key
vulnerabilities
Screening-level assessment accounts for MSL+variability assumes un-modified shoreline
Potential impact to key receptors from problem formulation
Highlight scenarios under which these receptors would be
impacted
MCBCP
PN1110
With Runup

Week
Month
Year
Decade
Century
Week
Month
Year
Decade
Century
Baseline
(m NAVD)
2.40
2.80
3.39
3.63
3.80
1.99
2.36
2.80
3.17
3.34
0.5
(>2045)
2.90
3.30
3.89
4.13
4.30
2.49
2.86
3.30
3.67
3.84
Future Increase in MSL (m)
1.0
1.5
(>2070)
(>2085)
3.40
3.90
3.80
4.30
4.39
4.89
4.63
5.13
4.80
5.30
2.99
3.49
3.36
3.86
3.80
4.30
4.17
4.67
4.34
4.84
2.0
(>2100)
4.40
4.80
5.39
5.63
5.80
3.99
4.36
4.80
5.17
5.34 12
NBC Baseline
MHHW
NBC MSL+1.0m
Yearly Return
NBC MSL+0.5m
Yearly Return
NBC MSL+2.0m
Yearly Return
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Summary

DoD is developing methodologies to evaluate vulnerability and
adaptation at coastal installations

These risk-based methods incorporate quantification of stressors,
pathways and receptors

Vulnerability to sea level in the southwest is related to the cooccurrence of high tides, high waves, surge and El Niño conditions

Sea level rise can dramatically influence the return period of what
today are viewed as “extreme events”

Vulnerability to these events can occur via flooding, inundation,
erosion, intrusion or water level itself

Each installation has a unique sensitivity to these conditions
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