Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc.
For
Congressman Scott Murphy’s
Economic Action Summit
March 15, 2010

1.
Historic low energy prices…today.
2.
Capital Region still pays more than it should
3.
Cap and Trade upside for NY.
4.
Energy renewables agenda.
5.
Energy infrastructure agenda.
6.
Consumers have the responsibility to choose.
Energy Opportunities 2010

 Demand destruction: The Great
Recession ( Bad news )
 Speculators out of market ( Good news )
 Natural gas supplies are up.
Unconventional, shale gas. ( Good news )
Energy Opportunities 2010

Wholesale Power Prices at Historic
Low in 2009 (NYISO)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Load
GWh
428
430
435
433
438
458
444
458
452
435
Av.Electric
$/MWh
$58.26
$51.22
$49.90
$62.58
$62.80
$93.83
$76.45
$80.29
$95.31
$48.63
Av.NatGas
$/MMBtu
$5.52
$4.54
$3.85
$6.48
$6.80
$10.01
$7.36
$8.50
$10.13
$4.87
Energy Opportunities 2010

Wholesale Electricity Price Trend
2000-2009 (Average, NYS)
Average Wholesale Electric prices $/MWh (NYISO 2010)
$120.00
$100.00
$80.00
$60.00
$40.00
$20.00
$-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Energy Opportunities 2010
Price $/MWh

Wholesale Natural Gas Price Trends
2000-2009 (Average, NYS)
Average NatGas Prices $/MMBtu
$12.00
$10.00
$8.00
$6.00
NatGas$/MMBtu
$4.00
$2.00
$-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Energy Opportunities 2010

Total Electric Demand
NYS 2000-2009
Load GWh (NYISO 2010)
450
445
440
435
430
425
420
415
410
465
460
455
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Energy Opportunities 2010
Load GWh

Natural gas storage trend, last
24 months (USEIA)
Energy Opportunities 2010

Energy Opportunities 2010

Energy Opportunities 2010

Capital Region Pricing Factors
 Transmission congestion
 Insufficient local generation
 Stable, growing demand (Global
Foundries)
 Cost to region +/- $200,000,000 per year.
Energy Opportunities 2010

Grid upgrade plans
(NYISO 2010)
Firm: Spier Falls to Rotterdam
Non-firm:
Spier to Luther Forest
Rotterdam to Luther Forest
Mohican to Luther Forest
North Troy to Luther Forest
Irish Road to Luther Forest
Just announced: Champlain-Hudson Express
Energy Opportunities 2010

Cap and Trade: Good News for
New York ratepayers
 Carbon tax will raise price of coalfired generation.
 Other states are more dependent on coal than New York.
 Electric prices will normalize.
Energy Opportunities 2010

 New York State 15.27 cents/kwh
 U.S. average 8.90 cents/kwh
Energy Opportunities 2010

Pennsylvania Electric generation fuel mix, Nov. 2009
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Energy Opportunities 2010

Ohio Electric generation fuel mix Nov. 2009
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Energy Opportunities 2010

NY State Electric generation by fuel source Nov. 2009
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Energy Opportunities 2010

Renewables by 2015
(NYS Energy Plan)
Wind (1,280MW as of 2009):
 On shore 7,993 MW
 Off shore 534 MW
Solar PV: 100 MW (14.6MW as of 2006)
Total NYS peak electric demand 2008:
+/- 38,720 MW (USEIA)
Energy Opportunities 2010

Energy Opportunities 2010

Private Investment in renewables
Energy price hedge
 On-site, behind the meter, PPAs
 Bi-lateral deals with developers
Green marketing
 Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)
Energy Opportunities 2010

NYS Energy Plan encourages
1.
New capacity, both Generation and
Transmission.
2.
Fuel diversity, especially renewables.
3.
Clear signals to consumers from energy markets to induce efficiency.
Energy Opportunities 2010

Other policy initiatives under way
 Smart metering – Installations began 2008.
 Net metering – Customer sited generation banking.
 Article 10 - One-stop permitting expired
2002. Is renewed effort in store?
 Federal ARRA funding, block grants
Energy Opportunities 2010

Consumer Choices and Responsibilities
 Shop for energy supplies, price, rate, tax savings. Pay less.
 Energy efficiency, SCR, NYSERDA programs. Use less.
 Federal incentives, tax credits for efficiency and renewables
Energy Opportunities 2010