Going sustainable in the 21st Century
- how quickly will the world go green?
Prof Ray Wills
Managing Director
Future Smart Strategies
Leader Western Australia
Blue Australasia
Adjunct Professor
The University of Western Australia
Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser
Sustainable Energy Association of Australia
Adoption rate of technology
What do markets tell us about how quickly disruptive
technologies will impact on our businesses?
 A natural rate of turnover and retirement in commodities.
 But, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’
 The transition to new technology will be more rapid
where changes are favoured by:
 policy measures and regulation;
 consumer sentiment;
 pricing advantage.
 Are you ready to adopt and adapt to new paradigms?
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
(Niels Bohr)
Roger’s diffusion curve
Wake up and smell the roses
Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs?
(Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC
PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet
Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry)
Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store)
VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay
Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon)
Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet
Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar
Technology adoption rates – US
Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs?
(Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
Potential EV growth
Declining price on solar
Global renewables
Global renewables 2014 +>
Global energy – fossil and renewables
Renewables and storage in Africa
Developing nations with modest domestic power needs
means storage may already be economically affordable.
Technology adoption rates
Marked decrease in developmental lag
Innovation/development of new products
Supply side capabilities
Market competition
Growing consumer expectations
Higher level of communication
between consumers - blogspace
Energy security