FACETs:

A New Warning Paradigm &

Framework for Progress
Seeking Clarity & Coalescence in the Primordial Soup
Lans P. Rothfusz
Deputy Chief
Warning R & D Division
National Severe Storms Laboratory

Informing a Paradigm Shift
Refine, revise and/or reinvent.
Challenges we have now.
Good things we do now.
First, do no harm!
Trajectories of science, tools and society.
Where we’re headed.
Future
Warning
Paradigm

The State of Warnings and Warning R&D
A SAMPLING OF CURRENT
CHALLENGES

Is There Anything Wrong with this Tornado Warning?
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1155 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2012
Answer: The Year!
*TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 1 PM CST
* AT 1155 AM CST…A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND INDICATED
BY RADAR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND…AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
IF THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE SIGHTED…BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY. TO REPORT A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER…PLACE
AN EMERGENCY CALL TO THE JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AT 601 939 5751…OR ASK THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY TO RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
Courtesy: Alan Gerard

Is There Anything Wrong with this Tornado Warning?
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1155 AM CST SUN FEB 21 1971
40+ years ago!!
*TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 1 PM CST
* AT 1155 AM CST…A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND INDICATED
BY RADAR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND…AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
IF THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE SIGHTED…BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY. TO REPORT A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER…PLACE
AN EMERGENCY CALL TO THE JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AT 601 939 5751…OR ASK THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY TO RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
Courtesy: Alan Gerard

Current Warning System
“Challenges”
• Warning methodologies have changed little in over 40 years.
– Except for “bullet format” and “storm-based” issuance.
• Society has changed….
– Technology
– Science
– Social diversity
– Lifestyles
– Vulnerability

Current Warning System
“Challenges”
• Polygons (in their current formulation) are blunt instruments for communicating a dynamic, small-scale threat.
Courtesy Greg Carbin, NWS SPC

Current Warning System
“Challenges”
Information Void(s)
Outlooks
Watches Warnings
Time
Space Regional
Days Hours Minutes
Event
State Local
Information Continuum
• Product-centric and binary.
• More information needed.
• More information available.
Adapted from Dr. Heather Lazrus (SSWIM)

Where We’re Headed…
EVOLUTIONAL
TRAJECTORIES

Evolutional Trajectory #1
• Evolving
Methods…
– Some under development (e.g.,
WoF)
– Most unsupported and/or untested.
–
None are coordinated with the others.
WoF
THESPA
FDP
PHI
TIM
Threat Petals

Evolutional Trajectory #2
• Evolving Domain…
– All developmental trajectories point toward The Grid!
– Severe ops, however, are not on it.
• A key issue for the future of warnings!!
MRMS

Evolutional Trajectory #3
• Evolving Output…
– Disparate projects intended to make warnings more effective in influencing human behavior.

Evolutional Trajectory #4
• A Nurturing
Environment…
– Testbeds & Proving
Grounds.
– NWS Roadmap.
• Decision Support
Services (DSS) through
Pilot Projects.
–
Weather Ready
Nation.
• Emphasis on social science.

The Primordial Soup

The Primordial Soup
• “Ingredients” of the primordial soup are advancing, but each on their own trajectory.
• Poorly-coordinated = No assurance each will “arrive” in the same place as the others.
– Impractical in today’s fiscal climate.
– Problematic for those managing “warning R&D.”
• All connected by a common desire to improve public safety!

The Opportunity
• There is a need (and opportunity) to coalesce the disparate activities into a single vision for a threat forecasting* paradigm that is…
– Modern
– Effective
– Scientifically robust
– Holistic
– Unifying
– Responsive to WRN-identified issues
*beyond watches & warnings

F orecasting a C ontinuum of
E nvironmental T hreat s

FACETs Paradigm
• Seven Facets of the Paradigm
1.
Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats
2.
Storm-Scale Obs & Guidance
3.
The Forecaster
4.
Threat Grid Tools
5.
Useful Output
6.
Effective Response
7.
Verification
Temporal
Continuum of the
Threat
Forecasting
Process

Facet #1: Grid-Based
Probabilistic Threats
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
ACK!!!
Probabilities for the public?!

Facet #1: Grid-Based
Probabilistic Threats
• Grid-Based,
Probabilistic Hazard
Information (PHI)
– Forecasters convey threat probability on grids.
– NOT (explicitly) watches or warnings, but…
Tornado threat index
Valid 10:00 pm-10:15 pm CDT
Last updated: 6 minutes ago
Courtesy G. Stumpf

Facet #1: Grid-Based
Probabilistic Threats
Sub-Warning
Alert for High Wind
• Legacy products
(warnings/watches) result from pre-determined thresholds.
•
• De-emphasizes the binary
“warn/don’t warn” decision of forecasters.
Enables new products!
“Byproduct”
Tornado Warning
Tornado threat index
Valid 10:00 pm-10:15 pm CDT
Last updated: 6 minutes ago
Courtesy G. Stumpf

Facet #2: Obs & Guidance
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance

Facet #2: Obs & Guidance
• Warn on Forecast
– NWP for storm-scale processes.
– Probabilistic output that will enable FACETs .

Facet #2: Obs & Guidance
• Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed
Storms (MYRORSS).
– 15-year radar data reanalysis.
– Statistical (probabilistic) output of climatological stormscale “behavior”
(phenomena, longevity, severity, etc.)
– Paves way for WoF probabilistic output.
Synoptic Scale
GFS, NAM, RAP, etc.
MOS
Storm Scale
Warn on Forecast
Multi-Year Reanalysis of
Remotely-Sensed Storms
(MYRORSS)

Facet #3: The Forecaster
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
The
Forecaster

Facet #3: The Forecaster
• Forecasters over (and in) the grids!!
– As essential as ever to the warning process.
• New paradigm = new training!
– Probabilistic threat information.
– Uncertainty conveyance.
– Use of guidance.
– Best practices.
– Tool use, etc.
• For maximum effectiveness of FACETs,
NWS must have renewed training efforts.

Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
The
Forecaster
Threat Grid
Tools

Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools
• WarnGen for threat grids.
• GSD’s “Hazard Services”
AWIPS-II app is headed in this direction.
– Specific tools needed for storm-scale threats.
• For example, a supercell widget to quickly “draw” hail, wind and tornado threat swaths all at once.
• Need to strengthen connections to warning
R&D.

Facet #5: Useful Output
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
The
Forecaster
Threat Grid
Tools
Useful
Output

Facet #5: Useful Output
Sub-Warning
Alert for High Wind
• Watches & warnings, yes .
– User-specifiable thresholds!
• Impact-focused, with new information
– Urgency, confidence, range of possibilities, etc.
• Enables copious opportunities for private sector partners.
“Byproduct”
Tornado Warning
Courtesy G. Stumpf

Wind Grid
Facet #5: Useful Output
GIS layers
Hail Damage
Trees Down
>EF3 Tornado
Lightning
Hail Grid
Tornado Grid
Impact Grid

Facet #5: Useful Output
High
90
Act Now!
80
Act Now!
Med
35 35
Low
10
1
Hail Wind Flood Tornado
Phone App Example

Facet #5: Useful Output
• Better DSS through better (and easier) impact communication.
– Based on weather threat forecast, a GIS-based,
“impact translator tool” could communicate the site-specific impact.
• Forecast: “Wind gusts to 60 mph”
• Impact: “Numerous trees and branches will fall.
Roofing material will be peeled back. Mobile homes will be rolled.”
– Gives more useful, actionable, recipientspecific information.

Facet #6: Effective Response
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
The
Forecaster
Threat Grid
Tools
Useful
Output
Effective
Response

Facet #6: Effective Response
• Start at the end…
– “Look at the desired response and work our way backwards from there.” - Dr. Russ Schneider
The Impact
Education Preparation Awareness
Method Guidance Decision Tools Output

SocSci Integration Points
Psychology Sociology
Economics Law
Anthropology
Education Preparation Awareness
Communication
Public
Policy
Economics
Political
Science
Economics
Cultural
Studies
The Impact
Human
Geography
Human
Factors
Method
Cultural
Studies
Human
Factors
Human
Factors
Psychology
Human
Factors
Guidance
Anthropology
Psychology
Human
Factors
Linguistics
Decision Tools
Political
Science
Psychology
Anthropology
Linguistics
Communication
Psychology
Output

Facet #7: Verification
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
The
Forecaster
Threat Grid
Tools
Useful
Output
Effective
Response
Verification
Methods

Facet #7: Verification
• Forecasts and observations on the same coordinate system: A geospatial grid .
• Statistically-valid and scientifically-robust results suitable for system improvement & research.
– Reliability
– Resolution
}
Brier Score
FALSE
• New metrics possible…
– False alarm time & area.
– Site-specific lead time, etc.
CORRECT
NULL
Resolution: 1 km 2 × 1 min
From ECMWF and Allan Murphy

FACETs
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
• PHI
• TIM
The
Forecaster
Threat Grid
Tools
Useful
Output
Effective
Response
•
WoF
•
MYRORSS
•
Training
•
Drills
•
Best
Practices
• DSS
•
Hazard
Services
• NWSWarn
• Threat Petals
•
HazSimp
•
Impactbased warnings
•
Mid-South
Warning
Improvement
Project
• DSS
•
Education
•
Preparedness
•
Awareness
•
Threat &
Vulnerability
Matching
HWT, OPG & Pilot Project “Development & Polishing”
Verification
Methods
•
Grid-based, improved metrics.
Integrated Social Science

In Conclusion…
• FACETs is…


… A new warning paradigm (grid-based threats);
… A framework intended to organize and guide reinvention efforts.
• FACETs designed to…
… Continue “the good” of the present system.
… Accommodate trajectories of science, technology and society;
… Focus and guide warning R&D work;
… Provide clarity in “The Primordial Soup!”

Comments,
Questions and/or
Suggestions?
Lans P. Rothfusz lans.rothfusz@noaa.gov
678-665-7049