Towards transparency in CTA's CAIA Switzerland Educational Event Zurich, April 2014 Agenda Why invest in trends? The well known reasons Why invest in trends? The case dependent on the holding period a different perspective Inside a CTA machine: Overview of the working engines Inside a CTA machine: Trend measurement and trend selection Inside a CTA machine: Risk engine for portfolio construction The performance sources, recent results and a peer group analysis Towards transparency summary 1741 Asset Management AG company portrait Well documented basis for trend investing Rational Beliefs • Investors have different and time varying beliefs that reflect different levels of optimism and pessimism • That can cause mid- to long term trends in financial markets. For instance long term bull and bear market cycles Market – inefficiency • Investors have different time lags to consider information for their investments that can cause midterm trends. For instance delayed reaction for financial result warnings Herding • Investors influence each other through exchanging information and opinions that can cause or intensify trends in financial series. For instance the dotcom bubble 3 Performance and diversification is key • Outstanding diversification characteristics • Attractive risk-adjusted return in the long term Low and asymmetric correlation to traditional asset classes Low correlation to alternative investment strategies and positive skew of returns Monthly data for period December 1986 to March 2013 based on Barclay US Managed Futures Industry BTOP 50 index (BARCBTOP), Citigroup WGBI All Maturities USD (SBWGU), MSCI TR Gross World (GDDUWI) and S&P GSCI Official Close Index TR (SPGCCITR) indices, HFRI (FoF: HFRIFOF, equity market neutral: HFRIEMNI, emerging markets: HFRIEM, equity hedge: HFRIEHI, event-driven: HFRIEDI, relative value: HFRIRVA) indices. Data and research from 1741 Asset Management research note series: How managed futures manage the future (www.1741am.com) 4 Agenda Why invest in trends? The well known reasons Why invest in trends? The case dependent on the holding period a different perspective Inside a CTA machine: Overview of the working engines Inside a CTA machine: Trend measurement and trend selection Inside a CTA machine: Risk engine for portfolio construction The performance sources, recent results and a peer group analysis Towards transparency summary 1741 Asset Management AG company portrait Opportunity set for trend investing depends on the holding period Percentage of winning and losing investments dependent on fixed holding period 20000 Finding 1: winning The longer the holding period the more winning opportunities are seen on 10000 the long side losing 0 Either one focus on long only strategies or apply -10000 5 days 1 month 6 months 1 year 5 years 10 years a strategy, that based on particular measures Finding 2: A holding period between 1 month and a year offers opportunities on the long and the short side Source: Bloomberg, daily data, since 1927, 1741 Asset management AG analysis gives signals for going long or short with a holding period between 1 month or 1 year 6 At which length of holding period does a CTA begin to pay-off, compared to long only? 1 Percentage of winning and losing investments dependent on fixed holding period SPX since 1927 positive SPX since 1992 positive CTA since 1992 positive Active, dynamic allocations according to trends start to 1 pay-off after a holding period of at least 6 months 0 1 Tag 5 Tage 1 Monat 6 Monate CTA: Commodity Trading Advisor Source: Bloomberg, daily data, since 1927, 1741 Asset management AG analysis CTA: simulated results, 1741 Asset management AG analysis 1 Jahr 7 Agenda Why invest in trends? The well known reasons Why invest in trends? The case dependent on the holding period a different perspective Inside a CTA machine: Overview of the working engines Inside a CTA machine: Trend measurement and trend selection Inside a CTA machine: Risk engine for portfolio construction The performance sources, recent results and a peer group analysis Towards transparency summary 1741 Asset Management AG company portrait 1741 representative fund overview of the engines Signal engine Risk engine Medium and long term focus on trends Trend comparison Trend measurement Digital signal processing Sequential statistics Measurement • MT: 1m to 6m • LT: 1yr to 1.5yrs Short term focus on risk Trend selection Statistical methodologies Comparison • Historical comparison Selection • Response function Capital allocation Risk equalisation methodologies Allocation • Continuous statistical identifies path of the prescribes trend assessment applies two risk trend characteristics to measures to balance the portfolio weights asset classes and • Cross-sectional comparison reflects instruments to a constant intra-asset class risk level relationship 9 The universe of traded instruments: The more instruments the better … FX (30) Equity (19) Bond (11) STIR (8) Commodity (28) EM/G10 G10/G10 Europe North America Asia Pacific Europe North America Asia Pacific Europe North America Asia Pacific Energy Metal Livestock / Soft BRLUSD CZKEUR HUFEUR ILSUSD KRWUSD MXNUSD PLNEUR RUBUSD ZARUSD AUDCAD AUDJPY AUDUSD CADUSD CADJPY CHFJPY CHFUSD EURAUD EURCAD EURCHF EURGBP EURJPY EURSEK EURUSD GBPCHF GBPJPY GBPUSD JPYUSD NOKUSD NZDUSD AEX CAC40 DAX IBEX 35 EURO STOXX 50 FTSE / MIB FTSE 100 OMXS30 SMI DJIA MSCI Taiwan NASDAQ 100 S&P / TSX 60 IX S&P 500 S&P MID 400 H-SHARES HANG SENG Nikkei 225 TOPIX EURO 10Yr BUND EURO 2Yr Schatz EURO 30Yr BUXL EURO 5Yr BOBL GB 10Yr Long Gilt US 10Yr Note US 2Yr Note US 30Yr Long Bond US 5Yr Note CAN 10Yr Bond JPY 10Yr Bond AUD 90Day Bank Bill CAD 90Day Bank Accept EURIBOR 90Day EuroChf 90Day EuroDollar 90Day EuroYen 90Day Fed Fund 30Day GB 90Day Sterling Brent Crude Gas Oil Gasoline Heating Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas ICE WTI Crude Cattle Feeder Lean Hogs Live Cattle Aluminium LME Copper Gold Palladium Platinum Silver Zinc LME Cocoa Coffee C Corn Cotton No 2 Rapeseed Soybean Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Sugar No 11 Wheat CBT Wheat LIFFE 10 Agenda Why invest in trends? The well known reasons Why invest in trends? The case dependent on the holding period a different perspective Inside a CTA machine: Overview of the working engines Inside a CTA machine: Trend measurement and trend selection Inside a CTA machine: Risk engine for portfolio construction The performance sources, recent results and a peer group analysis Towards transparency summary 1741 Asset Management AG company portrait Trend measurement an engineering challenge Signal engine Medium and long term focus on trends Medium-term 1600 For illustrative purposes only 1400 Precision of trend measurement is key • Medium term trend models focus on precision 1200 • The inertia of trend changes overcomes the time accuracy 1000 • The precision is crucial for the measurements quality 800 600 2007 SPX Index 2008 SMA(100) 2009 SMA(200) 2010 Low - Switch 1600 For illustrative purposes only Long-term 1400 Time accuracy of trend measurement is key • Long term trend models focus on reactiveness • A year of data enables for high level of precision in the measurement • A delay in signal change is crucial for the trend measurement 1200 1000 Quick change point detection 800 Switch 600 2007 2008 2009 SPX Index 2010 12 Another decision: Trend selection shapes the strategy profile Signal engine Medium-term Medium and long term focus on trends Which trends are preferred? • Emphasis on frequently occurring normal trends • Models capture extraordinary and rare trends with reduced position size Why are these trends preferred? • A detailed statistical assessment revealed an obvious picture • Increased stable behaviour in different market environments • Gradually build positions, reducing exposure if trends become too extreme and odds deteriorate Mimicking a prudent trader Trend strength Position size Illustrative purposes only Long-term Trend strength Which trends are preferred? • Long term trend measurement do not tend to be extreme based on the measurement reactiveness. The trailing behaviour of the measurement reduces the extremes Why are these trends preferred? • A detailed statistical assessment revealed an obvious picture Go with the trend • Gradually build positions with the increments of the signal Position size Illustrative purposes only 13 Agenda Why invest in trends? The well known reasons Why invest in trends? The case dependent on the holding period a different perspective Inside a CTA machine: Overview of the working engines Inside a CTA machine: Trend measurement and trend selection Inside a CTA machine: Risk engine for portfolio construction The performance sources, recent results and a peer group analysis Towards transparency summary 1741 Asset Management AG company portrait Focus on portfolio construction: Including risk measures to balance the holdings and portfolio Risk engine Short term focus on risk Many roads lead to Rome and there are many methods to achieve a balanced risk based portfolio construction • Risk budgeting as the general methodology of risk parity • Mean Variance Optimization the classical approach • Maximum Diversification a new and promising methodology • Individualized risk techniques such as volatility filters, stop losses et al. Choose one, two, all or none ? 15 Risk parity in detail as one solution for the portfolio construction Risk engine Short term focus on risk Equal contributions using a multi-dimensional risk measure: Multi-dimensional risk focus • Risk weights for 96 instruments given same signal strength The risk equalisation approach starts with analysing the riskiness of each STIR Equity Equity instrument according to volatility and asymmetric volatility • Commodity It aims at weighting the instruments such that each contributes the same amount of risk to the total portfolio risk • FX As a consequence, risk is balanced across the portfolio FX Bonds Bond STIR Commodity For illustrative purposes only 16 The risk attributions of the outcome in the long term: Balanced and controlled Crops 14% FX 21% Precious Metals 7% Base Metals 4% Livestock 5% Equity Indices 18% Energies 8% Interest Rates 1% Bonds 22% Source: 1741 Asset Management , long term risk contribution based on historic volatilities / profit and loss since September 2009 17 Agenda Why invest in trends? The well known reasons Why invest in trends? The case dependent on the holding period a different perspective Inside a CTA machine: Overview of the working engines Inside a CTA machine: Trend measurement and trend selection Inside a CTA machine: Risk engine for portfolio construction The performance sources, recent results and a peer group analysis Towards transparency summary 1741 Asset Management AG company portrait At the end of the day the two sides of the momentum risk premium differ: The long and the short of it! • The long side of momentum risk premium investing obviously collects the equity growth carry, the fixed income carry, the foreign exchange carry and the supply-demand commodities carry • The short side of momentum risk premium investing collects the long-volatility spike pay-off. Hedging and diversifying the long side of the strategy and pronouncing the diversification and asymmetric return characteristic of a CTA to other asset classes Source: 1741 Asset Management AG internal backtest gross returns 1994 till 2014 19 1741 representative fund vs. peers on a volatility adjusted basis Cumulative return 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Newedge Winton MAN AHL Aspect Transtrend Lynx Equal weighted competitors DivTrend Bloomberg; 1741 Diversified Trends (WSDIVTE LX Equity), Newegdge CTA Trend Following Index (NEIXCTAT Index), Winton (INNWNTN MV Equity), MAN AHL (ADFDGLI ID Equity), Asprect (ALTWELL MV Equity), Transtrend (ALTTRAN MV Equity), Lynx (DBPIVLX LX Equity) 20 Agenda Why invest in trends? The well known reasons Why invest in trends? The case dependent on the holding period a different perspective Inside a CTA machine: Overview of the working engines Inside a CTA machine: Trend measurement and trend selection Inside a CTA machine: Risk engine for portfolio construction The performance sources, recent results and a peer group analysis Towards transparency summary 1741 Asset Management AG company portrait Shining light into the black box • The awareness rises that CTA's harvest the momentum risk premium on different time horizons combined with a risk based Asset Allocation • CTA's cover the opportunity set in the market that is not accessed by typical long only strategies • A CTA payoff profile is heavenly dependent on the trend type that the model selects • The profitability of the momentum risk premium is cyclical by nature with a long volatility tendency • The short exposure of a CTA delivers the long volatility insurance aspect as the long side harvest the long only risk premium with a positive momentum 22 Agenda Why invest in trends? The well known reasons Why invest in trends? The case dependent on the holding period a different perspective Inside a CTA machine: Overview of the working engines Inside a CTA machine: Trend measurement and trend selection Inside a CTA machine: Risk engine for portfolio construction The performance sources, recent results and a peer group analysis Towards transparency summary 1741 Asset Management AG company portrait 1741 Asset Management AG a quantitative pioneer Alternative Indexing • • Independent alternative indexing specialist with 13+ years Managed Futures • Independent managed futures specialist with over four of track record in research and index construction years experience in research and state of the art Focused on the application of innovative index weighting methodologies methodologies and the identification of systematic factors • Focused on innovative methodologies in risk based portfolio weightings and systematic pure trend following affecting the investment's risk/return profile • • Internal research team in the area of alternative indexing. trend following. Close collaboration with ETH and UNISG Close collaboration with ETH and UNISG • Internal research team in the area of risk allocation and Leading research provider in the field of alternative • Over 1 bn. EUR AuM indexing • Leading provider of managed futures products Various publications in many periodicals and peer- 6 HFM nominations reviewed journals 2 HFM Awards William F. Sharpe Award winner** 1 Mondo Alternative Award 5 Star rated by Morningstar: 1741 Global Risk Diversification Citywire AAA rated Fund Manager 24 Disclaimer The information provided are issued by 1741 Asset Management Ltd. ("1741 AM"), a Swiss registered fund management company having the form of a limited company and supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority and may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without permission from 1741 AM. Information contained herein is for information purposes only and is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. Historical data should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance. Index returns are no guarantee for any returns of financial products linked to the index. All performance shown prior to the index inception date is back-tested performance. Back-tested data may reflect the application of the index methodology with the benefit of hindsight, and the historic calculations of an index may change from month to month based on revision to the underlying economic data used in the calculation of the index. Any unauthorized use of this information by any person or entity is prohibited. The information contained herein may be changed any time and without prior notice. Although the information provided is believed to be materially correct, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy of any of the information provided. 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