Employment Outcomes of College Graduates, How Do We

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The Fast-Approaching Frontier:

Employment Outcomes of College Graduates

How Do We Make Sense of it All?

Patrick J. Kelly

National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

Environmental Pressures

• Federal Gainful Employment

• Effective utilization of federal SLDS grants

• College attainment/completion goals – state retention of graduates and economic returns

• Increased focus on “credentials of value” – the attainment of credentials of less than two-years in length (primarily) that yield living/competitive wages

• Meeting employment demand in key areas – e.g. health, education,

STEM, trades

• Increasing need for employment outcomes data to make the case for continued investment (state and federal policymaking environments)

The Data are Simple

Institution Records

• Completions

• Level of Award

(Certificate, Associates,

Bachelor’s Masters,

Doctorate, Professional)

Link

SSN

Employment/Wage Records

• Employed – record in the database (excludes self employed, military, and employed out-of-state)

• Earnings

• CIP Code of Award – Field of Study

• Industry of Employment

• Region of Employment

• Continued Enrollment

Data Available by Term Data Available Quarterly

Major Questions Answered

• What percentage of the graduates are employed instate – by level and type of award?

• Are the graduates employed in the region in which they graduate?

• What are their quarterly earnings?

• What industries are the employed in? (only relevant in a few fields)

• What percentage continue to enroll/persist in postsecondary education?

Median Annual Wages by General Field of Study and Age (United States)

(Includes Only Bachelor’s Degree Holders, Not Residents Who Earned Graduate/ Professional Degrees)

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

Employment

Outcomes

Metrics/

UI Data Match

40,000

STEM

Health

Business and Communications

Psychology and Social Sciences

Liberal Arts

Education

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60

Age

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample)

Most Effective Uses of the Data

State brain drain. Is the state retaining the graduates it produces?

How is it changing over time? (the impact on the degree and attainment goals of the state).

State-level supply and demand. What is the employment status of graduates in key areas of demand for the state? E.g. health and

STEM fields, certain trades. Don’t fall into the trap of overly detailed program-to-occupation supply and demand studies.

Regional supply and demand. Are institutions producing graduates that meet local employer needs? What are the employment status and wages of the graduates they produce?

Information for students and families. What programs provide the highest wages in the short-run? What programs are more likely to require continued education upon completion?

Institutional Accountability

(Difficult at Best)

• Small numbers of graduates for many programs

• It is very difficult to calculate the “value added” by institution – i.e. the likely employment and wages of students had they not completed their college credentials

• The state economy treats graduates from some institutions better than graduates from others (with the same credentials) – the

“prestige” factor

• Institutions serving large numbers of place-bound students are victims of their local economy (e.g. a part of the state that has low wages relative to other parts of the state)

• The difficult balance between directing students into programs with competitive wages and providing student choice

Gates Foundation Voluntary Metrics Project

• Voluntary participation of 20 institutions – represented by nearly all sectors

• Pilot a few employment outcomes metrics using the match between graduate student unit records and the state unemployment insurance (UI) databases

• Data Captured: Employment, continued enrollment, and wages one and five years after graduation (by level and field of study)

• Documentation of the results, barriers, what the data tell us, what they don’t, and the most responsible/effective uses of the data in policy and practice

Context

Why Indiana?

Focus of IndianaSkills.com

Career and training opportunities associated with:

Levels of education that are greater than high school and less than a bachelor’s degree.

Typically requiring undergraduate postsecondary certificates, certifications, associates degrees.

Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds

Indiana United States

20

15

10

5

40

35

30

25

11,2

12,6

33,5

27,0

22,4 22,2

8,6 8,4

0

Less than High

School

High School Some College, No

Degree

Associates

Degree

16,2

19,1

Bachelor's

Degree

8,2

10,7

Graduate,

Professional

Degree

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey

4 000

Average Annual Net Migration of 22 to 64 Year Olds by

Education Level (2005-09)

3 085

3 000 2 815

2 611

2 000

1 127

1 000

0

-1 000

-2 000

Less than High

School

High School

Graduate

Some College,

No Degree

Associates

Degree

-765

-1 581

Bachelors

Degree

Graduate or

Professional

Degree

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or Less Living in Families not Earning Living Wage (2010)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

4

3

2

6

5

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

Change in Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or

Less Living in Families not Earning Living Wage – Since 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Supply

Information and Analysis Imposed –

A “Study”

Employers – “I’ve been telling you this for years, we can’t find people with the skills we need”

Education/Training Providers – “This is great information but you’re asking us to cut programs that generate revenue, restructure/change faculty resources, add programs that cost more to provide, and change student choice?”

Policymakers – “Interesting report but the college in my district doesn’t like it”

Potential Students – “I have no clue the report even exists, and wouldn’t read it if

I did”

Demand

Information Made Accessible –

Creating an Environment for Change

Students Employers

Information

Providers Policymakers

Access to Data and Information that

Inform Users and Generates the

Public Will for Change

Website Designed to Help:

• Job seekers find career opportunities and short term training programs that best match their skills and interests, are in high demand, with competitive wages.

• Employers learn a great deal more about the occupations they are hiring for, the skills and credentials they should be requiring, and the wages being paid to similar employees around the state.

• Students become better informed about short-term training programs that lead to gainful employment in the state and regions in which they live.

Data Sources

General information about occupations –

U.S. Department of Labor, MyNextMove.org,

MySkillsMyFuture.org, Bureau of Labor

Statistics, O’net

Real-time data on occupation demand –

Burning Glass

Status of recent college graduates –

Indiana’s W

orkforce Intelligence System (IWIS).

Most Job Postings for Sub-Baccalaureate Occupations

(Source: Burning Glass)

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Retail Salespersons

Registered Nurses

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

Customer Service Representatives

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers

Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants

General and Operations Managers

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

Office Clerks, General

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses

First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers

Nursing Assistants

Stock Clerks and Order Fillers

Industrial Production Managers

First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers

Tellers

Computer User Support Specialists

Food Service Managers

Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers

Cashiers

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All Other

Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners

Insurance Sales Agents

Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics

Health Technologists and Technicians, All Other

Cooks, Restaurant

Production Workers, All Other

Personal Financial Advisors

Receptionists and Information Clerks

0

17,374

13,059

11,952

11,501

14,938

8,198

2,491

2,428

2,338

2,334

2,221

2,212

2,186

2,140

2,100

2,089

1,962

1,908

1,829

4,042

3,935

3,460

3,358

3,104

2,826

2,541

2,536

2,512

2,500

5,097

5,079

4,837

4,609

4,523

4,304

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Most Requested/Required Certifications

(Source: Burning Glass)

REGISTERED NURSE

LICENSED PRACTICAL NURSE (LPN)

COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSE

CERTIFIED NURSING ASSISTANT

CDL CLASS A

FIRST AID CPR AED

AUTOMOTIVE SERVICE EXCELLENCE (ASE) CERTIFICATION

FIRST AID CPR AED

FORKLIFT OPERATOR CERTIFICATION

CERTIFIED OCCUPATIONAL THERAPY ASSISTANT

COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSE

FIRST AID CPR AED

AUTOMOTIVE SERVICE EXCELLENCE (ASE) CERTIFICATION

LICENSED VOCATIONAL NURSE (LVN)

SERIES 6

CDL CLASS A

INSURANCE LICENSE

REGISTERED NURSE

CERTIFIED MEDICAL ASSISTANT

BASIC CARDIAC LIFE SUPPORT CERTIFICATION

PHLEBOTOMY CERTIFICATION

COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSE

CERTIFIED PHARMACY TECHNICIAN

CERTIFIED SURGICAL TECHNOLOGIST

REGISTERED HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNICIAN

ADVANCED CARDIAC LIFE SUPPORT (ACLS) CERTIFICATION

CERTIFIED A+ TECHNICIAN

INSURANCE LICENSE

REGISTERED RESPIRATORY THERAPIST

FORKLIFT OPERATOR CERTIFICATION

FIRST AID CPR AED

REGISTERED HEALTH INFORMATION ADMINISTRATOR

INDIANA CERTIFIED NURSE AIDE

HOME HEALTH AIDE

SERIES 7

0

249

241

230

214

210

201

200

195

194

186

174

169

167

379

376

338

335

329

300

586

563

843

1,118

557

511

505

489

461

452

418

1,000 2,000

2,193

2,077

2,039

1,962

3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

7,528

7,000 8,000

Status of Recent College Graduates

(Source: Indiana’s Workforce Intelligence System)

Example – Registered Nurses

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

4,521

2,000

1,500

1,000

465

500

0

Graduates from

2008-09 to

2009-10

Continued

Education

3,665

391

Employed in

Indiana

Not Employed,

Self Employed,

Employed Out of

State

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

31,856

56,200

20,000

10,000

0

Average Earnings One

Year After Graduation

Average Earnings for All

Registered Nurses

Data and Information

Available by Region

Gary South Bend

Fort Wayne

Lafayette

Indianapolis

Terre Haute

Bloomington Columbus

Richmond

New Albany

Evansville

Additional Features

“Top 10 Lists” –

e.g. Occupations with greatest demand, highest earnings, highest percentage of employability, most requested certifications by Indiana employers, most requested specialized skills by Indiana employers, etc.

Job Description Creator

– an easy-to-use tool that enables employers to generate job descriptions for occupations they are hiring for – utilizing the data and information on the website (e.g. typical level of education required, certifications associated with the occupation, wages earned by Indiana employees, etc.)

Add Screenshots of

IndianaSkills.com

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