Is there 'White Flight' in
England?
Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More
Opposed to Immigration
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,
Birkbeck College
e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; g.harris1@bbk.ac.uk
http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass
twitter: @epkaufm
Reduce Immigration (a little or a lot)
• 80.4% of white UK born respondents vs. 19.6%
of UK-born whites who wish immigration to
stay the same or increase
Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey,
2010-11, geocoded with Census 2011
Reduce the number of immigrants (a lot and a little) by
social class and ward diversity (aggregated dataset) for
all white respondents
95
90
85
80
75
70
Upper
65
Middle
60
Working class
55
50
All
Local Contact, Metro Threat?
•22 studies at ward level (population generally
10,000-30,000) : 74 percent link higher diversity to
reduced animosity, just 18 percent the reverse
•43 studies using units above 100,000 population: a
significant increase in out-group hostility in 86 percent
of these studies
• Feeling of threat at metro level as minorities
grow, but positive contact at local level
creates accommodation
Selection Bias Problem
Q: Why are whites in diverse areas more
tolerant?
A: Selection bias: whites who don’t like diversity
leave, a.k.a. ‘white flight’ or white avoidance
Selection Bias?
•
•
•
•
No one has properly tested
Test with BHPS/Understanding Society
Large sample, longitudinal, geocoded
Compare white British who enter and leave
diverse wards
• Compare white British movers (enter/leave)
with those who stay
• Proxy questions for attitude to immigration
Simpson (2007) Method
Wards
White
Flight/Avoiders
Quintile
1
Quintile
2
Quintile
3
Quintile
4
Quintile
5
Total
%
White
7554
98
726
87
288
73
180
57
102
8850
34
91
Diversity Seekers
Quintile
Change?: Same
White stayer
Less
More
Total
119316
1596
1468 122380 90.7%
White inter-ward
mover
6774
1670
1421
9865 7.3%
White intra-ward
mover
2565
38
37
2640 2.0%
Source: BHPS/
Understanding
Society, 1991-2011
Simpson (2007) Method
Wards
White Flight/Avoiders
•24% Tory
•18% Working Class
•30% Degrees
•57% English Identity
•56% Tabloid
•32% 17-25s
•26% renters
•35% single
•12% anti-homosexual
•12% gender
traditionalists
Quintile
1
Quintile
2
Quintile
3
Quintile
4
Quintile
5
Total
%
White
Diversity Seekers
7554
98
726
87
288
73
180
57
102
8850
34
91
•24% Tory
•18% Working Class
•27% Degrees
•57% English Identity
•46% Tabloid
•44% 17-25s
•50% renters
•49% single
•10% anti-homosexual
•9% gender traditionalists
Not Selection
• Whites moving to diverse areas and those
leaving them are almost identical in voting,
family values, English national identity, British
patriotism, newspaper readership
• No direct measure of immigration opinion, but
research in Sweden finds identical pattern
(Hedman et. al 2012)
Mobility?: Stayers Differ From Movers
• Swedish research shows that whites leaving
diverse areas (Hedman et. al 2012) are more
tolerant of immigration than whites who
remain
• Our work with BHPS corroborates this: movers
are more tolerant on family values and
morality, whilst stayers tend to be more
nationalistic and defensive of Britain’s
standing in the world.
Managers
Stayer Mover
Total
19.9
21.1
Stayer
Mover
Total
20
Intermediate
Own acc
42.8
5.8
45.6
4.7
43
5.7
working class
29.4
26.2
29.1
never worked
2
2.2
2.1 ***
17-25
26-35
36-45
46-54
55-64
65+
8.4
16.2
19.8
16.5
15.3
22.4
29.3
31.7
16.1
8.6
6.3
7
10.4
17.7
19.4
15.8
14.5
21 ***
Con
Labour
Liberal
Other
none
28.8
40
13.9
4.7
12.6
25.2
38
14.4
5.2
17.1
28.5
39.8
14
4.7
13 ***
redtop
67
63.4
66.8
broadsheet
26.9
31.9
27.9 ***
owner
social
rented
79.6
15
5.3
54.6
15.9
29.5
77.3
15.2
7.5 ***
degree & above
A-level
O- level
none
10.9
23.2
31.3
34.6
18
30.6
33
18.3
11.6
23.8
31.4
33 ***
Not Religious
Religious
52.9
47
66.6
33.4
54.2
45.8 ***
Homosexuality wrong
agree
neither
disagree
21.5
36.8
41.7
13.8
29.5
56.8
20.8
36.2
43 ***
Husband should earn
agree
disagree
18.9
52.8
12.2
64.7
18.3
54 ***
16
52
7.7
73.8
15.2
30.8 ***
74.8
17
8
65.4
22.8
11.7
74
17.6
8.4 ***
Britain has much to learn from
other countries
agree
45.2
neither
31.7
disagree
23.1
45.6
34.3
20.1
45.2
32
22.8 **
Cohabitation wrong
Agree
disagree
Brit Citizenship is Best
agree
neither
disagree
Source: BHPS/ Understanding Society, 19912011
Stayers and far right support
• Harris’ work on support for
the far right in Greater London
2007-10: electoral support for
the BNP stronger in wards
with less in- and – outflow
• Far right support linked with
white enclaves nested within
more ethnically diverse areasbifurcated relationship with
diversity (Goodwin 2011,
Bowyer 2008)
• Positive relationship at Local
Authority (conflict) against
negative at ward level
(contact)
Whites Favouring Reduced Immigration, by
social class
By Share of Ethnic Minorities in
Ward
By Share of Recent Immigrants (less
than 10 years in UK) in Ward
95
Upper
90
85
95%
All Whites
Middle
90%
Working class
85%
All
80
80%
75
75%
70
70%
65
65%
60
60%
55
55%
50
50%
White Working
Class
Less than 2%
immigrants
2-5%
5-10%
10-15%
15+%
Immigrants
Those Favouring Reduced Immigration,
by class: Role of Transience
90
80
70
Upper
Middle
60
Working
Base
50
40
30
Least Renters
2
3
4
Most Renters
Reduce Immigration a lot
• 59.7% of white UK born respondents agree
Contact Effect on Opposition to
Immigration, by Class
0
0
-0.5
-0.002
-1
-0.004
-1.5
-0.006
-2
-0.008
-2.5
-3
t-statistic
coefficient
-0.01
-0.012
Contact Effect on 'Reduce immigration a
lot', by Class
0
-0.5
-1
0
-0.002
-0.004
-1.5
-0.006
t-statistic
-0.008
coefficient
-2
-2.5
-3
-0.01
-3.5
-0.012
-4
-0.014
Conclusion
• Local context matters for views on immigration
and vice-versa
• Whites in diverse English wards more positive
about immigration
• Not because intolerant whites have selfselected out
• But in part because whites in diverse areas are
more transient
• Some support for contact theory: more in
ameliorating strong opposition than in promoting
acceptance of current levels
• Limited effect on white working class attitudes
• White attitudes to immigration may be softened
by contact; however LA-level diversity may
increase threat effect (further research will use
multilevel analysis to parse this)
• Further research: 4 focus groups; expand analysis
to 5 waves of Citizenship Survey
Is there 'White Flight' in
England?
Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More
Opposed to Immigration
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,
Birkbeck College
e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; g.harris1@bbk.ac.uk
http://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass
twitter: @epkaufm