POLI 333B. Issues in Comparative Politics:
Social Revolutions
Agustín Goenaga
Department of Political Science
University of British Columbia
Summer 2013
SESSION 2. STUDYING SOCIAL
REVOLUTIONS
MAP OF THE LECTURE
1. Explaining social revolutions. What does this
mean?
2. What is a social revolution? Definitions.
3. The evolution of the study of social revolutions
4. Knowledge accumulation: Insights and issues
(*Lecture based on three main sources:
•
Skocpol, Theda. 1979. “Explaining Social Revolutions. Alternatives to Existing Theories”, Chapter 1 of States and
Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press;
•
Goldstone, Jack A. (2003). “Comparative Historical Analysis and Knowledge Accumulation in the Study of
Revolutions”, Chapter 2 of Mahoney, James & Dietrich Rueschemeyer (eds.), Comparative Historical Analysis in the
Social Sciences, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press;
•
Goodwin, Jeff, “Revolutions and Revolutionary Movements” in Janovski, Alford, Hicks & Schwartz (eds.). 2005. The
Handbook of Political Sociology. States, Civil Societies and Globalization, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.)
EXPLAINING REVOLUTIONS. WHAT
DOES THIS MEAN?
Skocpol: “understanding and explaining the generalizable
logic at work in the entire set of revolutions under
discussion” (1979:6).
Answering a number of theoretical, analytical and normative
questions, beyond “what happened?”:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Why do revolutions happen?
When and where do they happen?
What kind of outcomes do they produce?
Are there different kinds of revolutions?
Are they always/usually/rarely/never liberating or oppressing?
Are they always/usually/rarely/never progressive or regressive?
Are their outcomes worth their costs?
What can we do to prevent them or push them further?
WHAT IS A SOCIAL REVOLUTION?
THEDA SKOCPOL’S DEFINITION
SKOCPOL: “Social Revolutions are rapid, basic transformations of a society’s
state and class structures; and they are accompanied and in part carried
through by class-based revolts from below” (1979:4).
KEY:
Complex interaction
between factors=few cases
in history.
Emphasis on successful
social revolutions=actual
change.
WHAT IS A SOCIAL REVOLUTION?
JACK A. GOLDSTONE’S DEFINITION
GOLDSTONE: “An effort to transform political institutions and the
justifications for political authority in a society, accompanied
by…mass mobilization and non-institutionalized actions that
undermine existing authorities” (Goldstone 2001, p. 142).
KEY: Attack on authorities’ right to rule and mass
involvement in that attack.
-Includes successful and unsuccessful
challenges.
-Excludes coups, civil wars, reform
movements, etc. (requires massmobilization and structural
change)
WHAT IS A SOCIAL REVOLUTION?
JEFF GOODWIN’S DEFINITION
BROADER DEFINITION: “Revolution (or political revolution) refers to any and all cases
in which a state or political regime is overthrown, supplanted, and/or fundamentally
transformed by a popular movement in an irregular, extra-constitutional, and / or
violent fashion” (2005:404).
REVOLUTION= POLITICAL change + popular mobilization + noninstitutionalized contention
NARROWER DEFINITION: “A revolution (or social revolution) entails not
only mass mobilization and regime change but also more or less rapid
and fundamental social, economic, and/or cultural change during or
soon after the struggle for state power” (2005:405).
REVOLUTION= SOCIAL change + popular mobilization + noninstitutionalized contention
RECAP:
• Points of agreement:
– Requires mass-mobilization outside of established institutional
channels
Revolutions are different from coups, “revolutions
from above” and reformist change.
– Attempts to transform society and not just to replace rulers
Revolutions are different from civil wars.
• Differences:
– Positive & negative cases
Is success in transforming society an empirical issue
to be explained?
– Violence
Is the degree of violence an empirical issue to be explained?
Consequences of having different
definitions:
Determining the universe of cases that you can explain:
• Skocpol (1979): a handful of cases.
• Goodwin (2001): 18 social revolutions (1789-1989).
• Goldstone (1998) over 150 revolutionary movements.
Definitions often depend on the question that you want to answer:
• Revolutionary upheaval. Why and when do people mobilize against their rulers?
(Goodwin, Goldstone)
• Revolutionary change. Why do certain revolutions produce more repressive
regimes than others? (Moore, Skocpol) or Why do certain revolutionary
movements consolidate and institutionalize their power and others can’t? (Selbin)
• Revolutionary failure. Why do certain revolutionary movements succeed and others
fail in transforming society? (Skocpol)
• Revolutionary outcomes. Why do certain revolutions protect property rights while
others don’t? (Skocpol, Pincus, North, Levi)
THE EVOLUTION OF THE STUDY OF
SOCIAL REVOLUTIONS:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Marxist Theories
Natural History of Revolutions
Modernization Theories
Social-Structural Theories
Rational-Choice Theories
Ideational-Cultural Theories
Natural History of Revolutions
• Lyford P. Edwards (1927), George Sawyer Pettee (1938), Crane Brinton (1938).
• Sequences of events in classic cases of revolutions:
– Intellectuals cease to support the regime.
– The regime attempts to meet these criticisms through major reforms.
– The fall of the regime begins with an acute political crisis brought on by the
government’s inability to deal with some economic, military, or political problem
rather than with the action of a revolutionary opposition.
– Conflicts begin to emerge among revolutionaries after the fall of the old regime.
– First, moderates gain power reproducing some organizational forms from the old
regime.
– Then, radicals gather popular support and push them out of power. This is when
the greatest revolutionary changes occur.
– Forced imposition of order through coercive rule, often state-imposed terror.
– Pragmatist phase: moderate pursuit of progress within the status quo, but with an
enlarged and more centralized state.
Marxist Theories
• STRUCTURALISM: “Revolutions result from objective-structural
contradictions within historically developing and conflict-ridden societies”
(Skocpol 1979:5).
• MAIN CONTRADICTION: A disjunction between the mode of production and
relations of production: class conflict.
CLASS-CONFLICT: A new mode of production is born in an old one,
giving birth to a new proto-revolutionary class: capitalism develops
within
feudalism and the bourgeoisie is born, socialism develops within
capitalism and the working class is born.
• TOPICS: Karl Marx (Historical materialism), Vladimir Lenin (the role of the
party in solving collective action problems), Eric R. Wolf, Jeffrey M. Paige
(who represents the revolutionary class?—the issue of the peasantry in the
1960s and 70s)
• CRITICISMS:
– Communist revolutions happened where Marxists did not expect them to
happen, and did not occur where expected.
Modernization Theories
A teleological view of History: “traditional” societies undergo processes
of change to become “modern” societies. Since these changes are often
disjointed, they produce instability.
Two landmark examples:
– Aggregate-psychological theories (relative deprivation): Ted Gurr
– Systems/value consensus theories (functionalists): Chalmers Johnson
(value-consensus), Samuel Huntington (the problem of political order)
Implications:
– The assumption of shared universal processes made it amenable for
large-n statistical tests (Gurr 1968, Feierabend et al. 1969, Hibbs 1973).
– As societies become modern, we should observe a decrease in the
number of revolutions in the world.
– Why do only some societies undergoing modernization experience
revolutionary upheavals?
Criticisms of early studies of
revolutions:
• Variation in causes, patterns and dynamics of revolutions: Are all revolutions
the same?
• Causal mechanisms? Who does what? (against Marxist and Modernization
theories)
• Finding: best predictor of political violence is previous experience of political
violence: some countries—regardless of their level of modernization—were
more prone to violence than others (against large-n modernization
arguments).
• Why do revolutions occur in certain times and places but not others (against
Natural History tradition)?
• Organization (Tilly 1978): Quoting Trotsky, if popular misery and frustration
lead to revolution by themselves, the masses would be in revolt at all times
and everywhere.
Social-Structural Theories
• What is “a structuralist approach”?
• Assumptions about social life:
– Marx: “Men make history but not in circumstances of their own choosing.”
– Major social transformations occur “behind the backs” of individuals: actors
cannot always be aware of phenomena occurring at the collective level or
foresee the unintended consequences of their actions.
• Topics:
– Macro-historical processes of change and continuity (path-dependence)
– Big causes and big outcomes: droughts, wars, demographic change,
industrialization, urbanization, etc.
• Methods: Comparative Historical Analysis, large-n statistical analysis,
case studies
• Examples:
–
–
–
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Barrington Moore: Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy
Theda Skocpol: States and Social Revolutions
Jack A. Goldstone: Rebellion and Revolution in the Early Modern World
Jeff Goodwin: No Other Way Out: States and Revolutionary Movements, 1945-1991
Rational-Choice Theories
• What is a “rationalist approach”?
• Assumptions about social life:
– Collective outcomes are different from individual outcomes (collective action dilemmas)
– Micro-foundations or methodological individualism: social life is shaped by the actions
of individuals
– Individuals are rational: try to maximize utility function (most benefits, least costs)
• Topics:
– Solutions to collective action dilemmas
– Difficulties to predict social revolutions
– Games of transition
• Methods: Formal modeling, analytical narratives.
• Examples:
–
–
–
–
–
Mancur Olson: The Logic of Collective Action
Gordon Tullock: The Social Dilemma
Mark Lichbach: The Rebel’s Dilemma
Adam Przeworski: “The Games of Transition”
Timur Kuran: “Sparks and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution”
Ideational-Cultural Theories
•
•
What is an “ideational” or “culturalist” approach?
Assumptions about social life:
– Constructivism: social reality is largely constructed by the words and concepts that we use
to describe it.
– Human beings usually know what they are doing, and they are not only motivated by
utilitarian calculations but also by passions, emotions, beliefs, norms, convictions, etc.
•
Topics:
– Cultural context in which revolutions occur
– New ideas and ideological resources
– Leadership roles
•
Methods: cultural anthropology, in-depth case studies, cultural studies (literary
criticism, intellectual history, philosophical commentary)
•
Examples:
–
–
–
–
Lynn Hunt: Politics, Culture and Class in the French Revolution
Eric Selbin: Modern Latin American Revolutions
James Scott: Weapons of the Weak: Everyday Forms of Peasant Resistance
Gilbert Joseph & Daniel Nugent: Everyday Forms of State Formation: Revolution and
Negotiation of Rule in Modern Mexico
Map of the Literature on Revolutions
19th C.
Classical Marxism (Marx
& Engels)
Classical Sociology: Durkheim & Weber
1910
1920
1930
MarxismLeninism &
Maoism
Natural History of
Revolutions (Edwards,
Pettee, Brinton)
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Modernization Theory (Gurr,
Johnson, Huntington)
Neo-Marxists
(Althusser, Paige,
Wolf, Moore)
Structuralists:
Skocpol
Goldstone
Goodwin
Culturalists:
Thompson, Hunt,
Furet, Scott
Joseph & Nugent
Pincus
Rationalists:
Olson
Tucker
Kuran
Przeworski
Lichbach
KNOWLEDGE ACCUMULATION:
INSIGHTS AND PENDING ISSUES
Insights (Goldstone 1)
1. Many different events can trigger revolutionary episodes:
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
h.
i.
International military pressures
Demographic pressures
Elite alienation due to political exclusion
Elite and popular alienation due to striking repression or
cultural and religious deviation by the regime
Economic downturns or natural disasters
Cross-class or multiclass coalitions of opposition
Widespread ideologies of opposition
Emergence of leadership of opposition
Mobilization networks that forge oppositional identities
Insights (Goldstone 2)
2. Five key conditions for a revolutionary episode:
• A crisis of state authority in which the state is widely perceived by elites
and popular groups as both ineffective and unjust.
• A crisis of elite relationships in which elites become divided, alienated,
and polarized into factions that disagree over how to reconstitute state
authority.
• A crisis of popular welfare in which urban and / or rural groups find it
difficult to maintain their customary standard of living through
accustomed means.
• The emergence of an elite-popular coalition to attack the authority of the
state.
• An ideology of opposition that binds elite and popular groups in their
attack on the authorities, justifies that attack, and suggests alternative
bases for authority.
Insights (Goldstone 3)
3. Change the question: What are the conditions
of stability?
1. Rulers (or ruling organizations) are widely perceived
as both effective and just;
2. Elites are unified and loyal to the regime;
3. Popular groups are able to secure their customary
standard of living in a reliable manner.
Insights (Goodwin 1)
The state must play a central variable in our analysis of revolutions because:
1. State breakdown is a necessary condition for revolution (by definition).
2. Certain state structures and practices actively albeit unintentionally help to
for or construct revolutionary movements:
– People will not join or support revolutionary movements when they believe that
the central state has little to do with their everyday problems.
– Few people join or support revolutionaries if they feel that doing so will simply
make them the targets of state violence or if they believe that they can obtain
much or even some modicum of what they want, politically speaking, through
some routine, institutionalized, and therefore low-risk channel for political claim
making.
– Other things being equal, the political context that is most conducive to the
formation of strong revolutionary movements is found in those societies in
which indiscriminately repressive and disorganized states possess geographically
and socially delimited power, that is, low-capacity authoritarian regimes.
Goodwin: states that are most prone
to produce revolutionary movements
Insights (Goodwin 2)
• Why do revolutions and revolutionary movements occur when and where
they do? More specifically: “Why are groups sometimes able to attract
broad popular support?”
• Five state practices (a state-centered view) contribute:
– State sponsorship or protection of unpopular economic and social
arrangements (bureaucratic or patrimonial state structures).
– Exclusion of mobilized groups from state power or resources (inclusive
versus exclusive regimes).
– Indiscriminate, but not overwhelming, state violence against mobilized
groups and oppositional political figures (state capacity).
– Weak policing capacities and infrastructural power (state capacity).
– Corrupt and arbitrary personalistic rule that alienates, weakens, or
divides counterrevolutionary elites (combination of all three
dimensions).
Discuss:
Goodwin claims that (1) there have been no
revolutions in the Post-Cold War Era (after
1989), and (2) that this can be explained by
either globalization (it diminishes and hollows
out state power) OR democratization (p. 417420).
Discuss in the light of the Arab Spring.
Pending Issues:
• According to Goldstone:
• The role of women and gender issues in revolution (Moghadam
1997; Tétreault 1994; Wasserstrom 1994).
• Macrolevel theories of revolution still need to be harmonized with
social-psychological theories of individual behaviour.
• According to Goodwin:
• Anomalous cases: cases where revolutions happen when they
shouldn’t, and cases where they don’t happen when they should.
• Culture (including emotions): The role of culture and ideas in
shaping the outcomes or achievements of revolutions.
• Islamist movements: Islam as a new military ideology.
• Strategy and tactics