MALTHUSIAN MODEL FOR ESTIMATING WORLD POPULATION
GROWTH
BY
OKOROAFOR ESTHER TOCHI
170806128
A PROJECT SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS,
FACULTY OF SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF LAGOS, AKOKA, NIGERIA.
MAY 2023
CERTIFICATION
This is to certify that this project work titled” Malthusian Model for Estimating the population
growth of the world” was carried out by Okoroafor Esther Tochi, Matriculation Number
170806128 in the Applied Mathematics with Computational Option, University of Lagos
under my supervision.
___________________________
____________________________
PROF J. OLALERU
DATE
PROJECT SUPERVISOR
___________________________
______________________________
HEAD OF DEPARTMENT
DATE
DR. A.A MOGBADEMU
___________________________
_____________________________
EXTERNAL SUPERVISOR
DATE
ii
DEDICATION
This research work is dedicated to my loving mother for her immense financial support and
encouragement throughout my Bsc programme
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to say a very big thank you to my expert project supervisor Dr.A.AMogbademu, his
valuable and fatherly advice made this work possible, always available and ready to make
corrections when necessary.
I also appreciate the H.O.D, Prof J. Olaleru, and other lecturers in the department of mathematics
for the knowledge they imparted on me and my classmates of 2021/2022 academic session.
My classmates are also highly appreciated for the way we come together to take mathematical
problems and give solution within a short period of time. My prayer is that God will bless all of us
and grants our heart desir
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ABSTRACT
The goal of this research work is to forecast global population growth using mathematical model
s (the Malthus and modified Malthus models).
Using data from 2010 to 2060, the exponential and logistic growth models were used to project t
he global population growth.We calculated the world's carrying capacity and the key factors affe
cting population growth.
According to the projections' outcomes, the world's carrying capacity is 17, 409,652,495 people,
and vital coefficients a and b are, respectively, 0.02 and 1.14878008xIO-12.
According to this hypothesis, the global population is growing by 2% year.This estimated popula
tion growth rate contrasts favorably with estimates reported in the literature that were statistical
lypredicted.
Based on this model, we also anticipated that there will be 11, 135, 340, 410 people living on the
planet in 2060. The information was gathered from McMaster University in Canada.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE PAGE
I
CERTIFICATION
II
DEDICATION
III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
IV
ABSTRACT
V
TABLE OF CONTENTS
VI
ABSTRACT
VII
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.0
Introduction
1.1
Statement of Problem
1.2
Objective of the Study
1.3
Significance of the Study
1.4
Scope and Limitation
1.5
Research Questions
1.6
Operational Definition of Terms
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.0
Literature Review
2.1
A Brief Evaluation of Accuracy
2.2
Population and Economic Growth
2.3
Life Expectancy and Economic Growth
2.4
Impact of Demographic change on Economic Growth
2.5
Impact of Demographic change on Social Cohesion
2.6
Classical Economic of Growth
2.6.1 Malthusian Theory
2.6.2 Malthus' Arguments
2.7
The World we live in (Planet Earth)
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CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.0
Methodology
3.1
Malthus Model
3.2
The Modified Malthus Model (The Logistic Growth Model)
CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.0
Collection of Data
4.1
Presentation of Data
4.2
Sources of Data
4.3
Analysis of Data using Malthus Model (Analytical)
4.4
Analysis using Malthus Model (Numerical Solution)
4.5
Analyzing data using modified Malthus Model (Logistic Difference Equation Analytic)
4.6
Analyzing using Logistic Difference Equation (Numerical using Equation)
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
5.0
Summary
5.1
Conclusion
5.2
Recommendation
References
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