Climate Change and the India-Pakistan Rivalry KEY TAKEAWAYS: The rivalry between nuclear powers India and Pakistan is one of the world’s most dangerous, with multiple risk factors present simultaneously including a common land border, a bitter territorial dispute, history of warfare under the nuclear shadow, the ready spark of terrorism, and deepening conflict over the shared Indus river basin. • South Asia is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change, which is acting to melt Himalayan glaciers and increase rainfall intensity in the Indus river basin. This will lead to more volatile flows and heightened risk of severe floods in disputed Kashmir and adjoining regions. • Both India and Pakistan are highly water-stressed countries. The Indus Waters Treaty, which governs sharing of the basin’s waters, is under unprecedented stress due to a number of factors including climate change. • Environmental degradation and climate change are inducing dam designs that open the door to both bad-faith actions and misunderstandings between the parties. Pakistan’s darkest fears are that India will manipulate dam storage levels to magnify downstream floods. India on the other hand worries that Pakistan will use floods caused in part due to climate change to falsely accuse India of water manipulation to score geopolitical points. • However, India faces many serious constraints in weaponizing Indus waters against Pakistan. Pakistan, as the downstream actor, faces even greater constraints. It is conceivable but unlikely that India will abrogate the Indus Waters Treaty. • The China-Pakistan strategic partnership, which includes joint hydropower projects, acts to increase tensions in South Asia. • The IWT urgently needs expansion and updating to move away from its core idea of partitioning water resources to the concept of their joint and sustainable management BACKGROUND: The India-Pakistan rivalry, marked by decades of tension and four wars, poses significant risks, especially considering both countries possess nuclear capabilities. Unique factors intensifying this rivalry include a shared border, territorial disputes, a history of warfare under the nuclear threat, sub conventional tactics, and deepening conflicts over natural resources, particularly water. Cross-border terrorism and control of Kashmir traditionally fueled the conflict, but in the 21st century, the environmental crisis, driven by human-induced climate change, further exacerbates tensions. South Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change, experiencing extreme precipitation, water stress, droughts, floods, sea-level rise, and intensified cyclones. The primary manifestation of climate change in the India-Pakistan rivalry is through water issues, specifically in the shared Indus River Basin governed by the Indus Waters Treaty. Disputes over water use have escalated, adding complexity to the conflict, with climate change projected to significantly impact the Indus River Basin in the coming decades. CONCLUSION: The relationship between climate change and conflict is intricate and varies by case. Instances of water being used as a tool in armed conflicts, such as Turkey halting water flow to Syria and Israel cutting freshwater supplies to Gaza, are documented. The focus on the Indus River Basin (IRB) reveals that climate change's primary impact is on the variability and volatility of river flows, potentially leading to conflicts. The existing Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), designed six decades ago, is deemed inadequate to address modern environmental and demographic challenges, lacking an integrated water management approach. The IRB involves not only India and Pakistan but also China and Afghanistan, necessitating a joint approach for effective basin management, though actual cooperation remains limited. The most probable conflict trigger related to climate change in the IRB is a natural calamity, potentially leading to armed clashes. However, the underlying causes of the India-Pakistan rivalry are historical, ideological, and territorial, with water and climate change acting as magnifying factors. Geopolitical trends suggest a heightened risk of armed conflict, potentially triggered by a terrorist attack or border clash. While climate change is unlikely to be the direct cause, increased stress on the IWT, partly climate-induced, amplifies the risk. In the worst-case scenario, a conflict may turn nuclear, with weakened nuclear deterrence increasing the potential for devastating global consequences. India and Pakistan face a crucial choice: view the growing water and climate crisis as an opportunity for institutional cooperation or intensify their current zero-sum conflict framing, determining the subcontinent's future.
