(Intrinsic Value) Deployment Specialists pays a current (annual) dividend of $1 and is expected to grow at 20% for two years then at 4% thereafter. If the required return for Deployment Specialists is 8.5%, what is the intrinsic value of its stock? π· π· 1 2 πΌππ π‘ππππ ππ ππππ’π = π0 = (1+π) + (1+π) 2 + β―+ ($1×1.20) ($1×1.202 ) (π·π» +ππ» ) (1+π)π» ($1×1.202 ×1.04) π0 = (1+0.085) + (1+0.085)2 + ((0.085−0.04)×(1+0.085)2) π0 = $30.60 (Required RoR Constant-Growth) Jand, Incorporated, currently pays a dividend of $1.22, which is expected to grow indefinitely at 5%. If the current value of Jand’s shares based on the constant-growth dividend discount model is $32.03, what is the required rate of return? (π· ×(1+π) πΌππ π‘ππππ ππ ππππ’π = π0 = 0(π−π) $32.03 = ($1.22×1.05) (π−0.05) π = 0.08994 ππ 9.00% (Required RoR DDM) A firm pays a current dividend of $1, which is expected to grow at a rate of 4% indefinitely. If the current value of the firm’s shares is $35, what is the required return applicable to the investment based on the constant-growth dividend discount model (DDM)? πΌππ‘ππππ ππ ππππ’π = π0 = $35 = ($1×1.05) (π−0.05) (π·0 ×(1+π) (π−π) , π = 0.08 ππ 8% (Market Capitalization Rate and Intrinsic Value) Miltmar Corporation will pay a year-end dividend of $4, and dividends thereafter are expected to grow at the constant rate of 4% per year. The risk-free rate is 4%, and the expected return on the market portfolio is 12%. The stock has a beta of 0.75. a. Calculate the market capitalization rate ππππππ‘ πππππ‘ππππ§ππ‘πππ πππ‘π = π = ππ + π½ × [πΈ(ππ ) − ππ ] π = 0.04 + 0.75 × (0.12 − 0.04) = 0.10 ππ 10% b. What is the intrinsic value of the stock? π·1 πΌππ π‘ππππ ππ π£πππ’π = π0 = (π−π) $4 π0 = (0.10−0.04) = $66.67 (Dividend-Growth Price) The risk-free rate of return is 5%, the required rate of return on the stock market is 10%, and High-Flyer stock has a beta coefficient of 1.5. If the dividend per share expected during the coming year, π·1 , is $2.50 and π = 4%, at what price should a share sell? π = ππ + π½ × [πΈ(ππ ) − ππ ] π = 0.05 + 1.5 × (0.10 − 0.05) = 0.125 ππ 12.5% π·1 $2.50 π0 = (π−π) , π0 = (0.125−0.04) = $29.41 (PVGO) Tri-coat Paints has a current market value of $41 per share with earnings of $3.64. What is the present value of its growth opportunities (PVGO) if the required return is 9% πΈ πππππ = 1 + πππΊπ π $3.64 $41 = 0.09 + πππΊπ πππΊπ = $0.56 (Constant-Growth, No-Growth Price, and PVGO) Sisters Corporation expects to earn $6 per share next year. The firm’s ROE is 15% and its plowback ratio is 60%. The firm’s market capitalization rate is 10%. a. Calculate the price with the constant dividend growth model πΊππ£ππ πΈππ = $6, π ππΈ = 15%, ππππ€ππππ πππ‘ππ = 0.60, π = 10% π· (πΈππ×(1−π)) π0 = 1 = (π−π) (π−π ππΈ×π) ($6×(1−0.60)) π0 = (0.10−0.15×0.60) π0 = $240 b. Calculate the price with no growth πΈ πππππ = π1 + πππΊπ $6 πππππ = 0.10 + 0 πππππ = $60 c. What is the present value of its growth opportunities? πΈ πππππ = π1 + πππΊπ $6 $240 = 0.10 + πππΊπ πππΊπ = $180 (Constant No-Growth Value) A common stock pays an annual dividend per share of $2.10. The risk-free rate is 7% and the risk premium for this stock is 4%. If the annual dividend is expected to remain at $2.10, what is the value of the stock? πΆππ π‘ ππ πππ’ππ‘π¦ = ππ + πΈ(π ππ π ππππππ’π) πΆππ π‘ ππ πππ’ππ‘π¦ = 7% + 4% πΆππ π‘ ππ πππ’ππ‘π¦ = 11% πβπ πππ£ππππππ πππ ππ₯ππππ‘ππ π‘π ππ ππππ π‘πππ‘, π‘βπ πππππ ππ πππππ’πππ‘ππ ππ ππ ππππ€π‘β π£πππ’π πππ π βπππ π· π0 = π π $2.10 π0 = 0.11 π0 = $19.09 (DDM, Price, and PE Ratio) Computer stocks currently provide an expected rate of return of 16%. MBI, a large computer company, will pay a year-end dividend of $2 per share. a. If the stock is selling at $50 per share, what must be the market’s expectation of the growth rate of MBI dividends? π·1 π·π·π; π0 = (π−π) $2 $50 = (0.16−π) π = 0.12 ππ 12% b. If the dividend growth forecasts for MBI are revised downward to 5% per year, what will happen to the price of MBI stock? π· π0 = 1 π0 = (π−π) $2 (0.16−0.05) π0 = $18.18 c. What (qualitatively) will happen to the company’s price-earnings ratio? πππππ πππππ π€ππ‘β πππ€ πππ£πππππ ππππ€π‘β. πΉππππππ π‘ πππ ππππππππ π’ππβπππππ. ππ ππΈ πππππ (DDM Price, ROE, and PVGO) The FI Corporation’s dividends per share expected to grow indefinitely by 5% per year a. If this year’s year-end dividend is $8 and the market capitalization rate is 10% per year, what must the current stock price be according to the dividend discount model? π·1 π0 = (π−π) $8 π0 = (0.10−0.05) π0 = $160 b. If the expected earnings per share are $12, what is the implied value of ROE on future investment opportunities? 8 π·ππ£πππππ πππ¦ππ’π‘ πππ‘ππ ππ 12 = 0.67, ππππ€ππππ πππ‘ππ ππ π = 0.33, π = π × π ππΈ 0.05 = (0.33) × π ππΈ π ππΈ = 0.15 ππ 15% c. How much is the market paying per share for growth opportunities (that is, for an ROE on future investments that exceeds the market capitalization rate)? πππΊπ = (π0 − πΈ1 π ) $12 πππΊπ = ($160 − 0.10) πππΊπ = $40 (Non-Constant Growth Price) Consider the following information: The firm’s dividends are expected to grow at π = 20% until π‘ = 3 π¦ππππ . At the start of year four, growth slows to ππ = 5%. The stock just paid a π·0 = $1. Assume a market capitalization rate of π = 12%. The is the π0 of this stock? π0 = π0 = π·0 ×(1+π) + + + (1+π) $1×(1+0.20) (1+0.12) π·0 ×(1+π)π‘ (1+π)π‘ $1×(1+0.20)2 +β―+ (1+0.12)2 π·0 ×(1+π)π‘ ×(1+ππ ) (1+π)π‘ ×(π−ππ ) $1×(1+0.20)3 $1×(1+0.2)3 ×(1+0.5) (1+0.12)3 + (1+0.12)3 ×(.12−.05) π0 = $1.07 + $1.15 + $1.23 + $18.45 π0 = $21.90 (Intrinsic Value, Price, and HPR) The risk-free rate of return is 8%, the expected rate of return on the market portfolio is 15%, and the stock of Xyrong Corporation has a beta coefficient of 1.2. Xyrong pays out 40% of its earnings in dividends, and the latest earnings announced were $10 per share. Dividends were just paid and are expected to be paid annually. You expect that Xyrong will earn an ROE of 20% per year on all reinvested earnings forever. a. What is the intrinsic value of a share of Xyrong stock? π = ππ + π½ × [πΈ(ππ ) − ππ ] π = 0.08 + 1.2 × (0.15 − 0.08) π = 0.164 ππ 16.4% π = π × π ππΈ π = 0.6 × 0.20 π = 0.12 ππ 12% (π· ×(1+π) π0 = 0(π−π) $4×(1+0.12) π0 = (0.164−0.12) π0 = $101.82 b. If the market price of a share is currently $100, and you expect the market price to be equal to the intrinsic value one year from now, calculate the price of the share after one year from now π1 = π1 = π0 × (1 + π) π1 = $101.82 × (1 + 0.12) π1 = $114.04 c. What is your expected one-year holding period return on Xyrong stock? πΈ(π) = πΈ(π) = π·1 +(π1 −π0 ) π0 ($4.48+$114.04)−$100 $100 πΈ(π) = 0.1852 ππ 18.52% (Price and Discounted Price) MF Corporation has an ROE of 16% and a plowback ratio of 50%. a. If the coming year’s earnings are expected to be $2 per share, at what price will the stock sell? The market capitalization rate is 12% π ππΈ = 16%, π = 0.50, πΈππ = $2, π = 12% π·1 (πΈππ×(1−π)) π0 = (π−π) = (π−(π ππΈ×π)) $2×(1−0.50) π0 = 0.12−(0.16×0.50) $1 π0 = (0.12−0.08) π0 = $25 b. What price do you expect MF shares to sell for in three years? π3 = πΈππ×(1−π)×(1+π)3 (π−π) = π0 × (1 + π)3 π3 = $25 × (1.08)3 π3 = $31.49 (Market-To-Book Ratio) A firm has current assets that could be sold for their book value of $10 million. The book value of its fixed assets is $60 million, but they could be sold for $90 million today. A firm has a total debt with a book value of $40 million, but interest rate declines have caused the market value of the debt to increase to $50 million. What is this firm’s marketto=book ratio? ππππππ‘ π£πππ’π ππ π‘βπ ππππ = ππππππ‘ π£πππ’π ππ ππ π ππ‘π = ππππππ‘ π£πππ’π ππ ππππ‘π ππππππ‘ π£πππ’π = ($10 πππππππ + $90 πππππππ) − $50 πππππππ = $50 πππππππ π΅πππ π£πππ’π ππ π‘βπ ππππ = π΅πππ π£πππ’π ππ ππ π ππ‘π − π΅πππ π£πππ’π ππ ππππ‘π π΅πππ π£πππ’π = ($10 πππππππ + $60 πππππππ) − $40 πππππππ = $30 πππππππ ππππππ‘ π£πππ’π ππππππ‘ π‘π ππππ πππ‘ππ = π΅πππ π£πππ’π $50 πππππππ ππππππ‘ π‘π ππππ πππ‘ππ = $30 πππππππ ππππππ‘ π‘π ππππ πππ‘ππ = 1.67 (Growth Rate and PE Ratio) The market capitalization rate for Admiral Motors Company is 8%. Its expected ROE is 10% and its expected EPS is $5. The firm’s plowback ratio is 60% a. Calculate the growth rate π = π ππΈ × π π = 0.10 × 0.60 π = 0.06 ππ 6% b. What will be its P/E ratio? ππΈ = (1−π) (π−π) (1−0.60) ππΈ = (0.08−0.06) ππΈ = 20 (FCFF) Eagle Products’ EBIT is $300, its tax rate is 21%, depreciation is $20, capital expenditures are $60, and the planned increase in net working capital is $30. What is the free cash flow to the firm? πΉπΆπΉπΉ = πΈπ΅πΌπ × (1 − π‘π ) + π·ππππππππ‘πππ − πΆππππ‘ππ ππ₯ππππππ‘π’πππ − πΌππππππ π ππ πππΆ πΉπΆπΉπΉ = $300 × (1 − 0.21) + $20 − $60 − $30 πΉπΆπΉπΉ = $167 (FCFF) Suppose FCFF = $1m for years 1 to 4 and then is expected to grow at 3%. Assume WACC = 15%. πΉπΆπΉπΉπ‘ ππ πΉπππ ππππ’π = ∑ππ‘=1 (1+ππ΄πΆπΆ) π‘ + (1+ππ΄πΆπΆ)π πΉπππ ππππ’π = $1,000,000 ∑4π‘=1 (1+0.15)1 + ( $1,000,000×1.03 ) 0.15−0.30 (1+0.15)4 πΉπππ ππππ’π = $7,762,527 If 500,000 shares are outstanding, what is the predicted price of this stock if the firm has $5,000,000 of debt? πΉπππ ππππ’π−π·πππ‘ π0 = πβππππ ππ’π π‘ππππππ π0 = $7,762,527−$5,000,000 500,000 π0 = $5.53 (FCFE) Suppose πΉπΆπΉπΈ = $900,000 for years 1 to 4 and then is expected to grow at a rate of 3%. Assume ππ = 18% πΉπΆπΉπΈ π ππππππ‘ ππππ’π ππ πΈππ’ππ‘π¦ = ∑ππ‘=1 (1+π )π‘ + (1+ππ )π‘ π ππππππ‘ ππππ’π ππ πΈππ’ππ‘π¦ = π $900,000×1.03 ( 0.18−0.03 ) $900,000 ∑4π‘=1 + 1 (1+0.18) (1+0.18)4 ππππππ‘ ππππ’π ππ πΈππ’ππ‘π¦ = $2,500,851 If there are 500,000 shares outstanding, what is the predicted price of this stock? Why can debt be ignored? ππππππ‘ ππππ’π ππ πΈππ’ππ‘π¦ π0 = πβππππ ππ’π π‘ππππππ π0 = $2,500,851 500,000 = $5.00 (Invoice Price) A coupon bond paying semiannual interest is reported as having an ask price of 117% of its $1,000 par value. If the latest interest payment was made one month ago and the coupon rate is 6%, what is the invoice price of the bond? Assume that a month as 30 days. ππππ ππππ’ππ πππ’πππ = $1,000 × 6% × 0.5 ππππ ππππ’ππ ππππππ = $30 π΄πππ’ππ πππ’πππ πππ¦ππππ‘ π·ππ¦π π ππππ πππ π‘ πππ’πππ πππ¦ππππ‘ π΄ππππ’ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ = × 2 π·ππ¦π π ππππππ‘πππ πππ’πππ πππ¦ππππ‘ $60 30 π΄ππππ’ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ = 2 × 182 π΄ππππ’ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ = $4.945 πΌππ£ππππ πππππ = π΄π π πππππ + π΄ππππ’ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ πΌππ£ππππ πππππ = 1,170 + $4.945 πΌππ£ππππ πππππ = $1,174.95 (Invoice Price) A bond with a coupon rate of 7% makes semiannual coupon payments on January 15 and July 15 of each year. The Wall Street Journal reports the ask price for the bond on January 30 at 100.125. What is the invoice price of the bond. The coupon period has 182 days. π πππππ‘ππ ππππ πππππ = $1,001.25 π΄πππ’ππ πππ’πππ πππ¦ππππ‘ π·ππ¦π π ππππ πππ π‘ πππ’πππ πππ¦ππππ‘ π΄ππππ’ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ = × π·ππ¦π π ππππππ‘πππ πππ’πππ πππ¦ππππ‘ 2 $70 15 π΄ππππ’ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ = 2 × 182 π΄ππππ’ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ = $2.8846 πΌππ£ππππ πππππ = π΄ππππ’ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ + π πππππ‘ππ ππππ πππππ πΌππ£ππππ πππππ = $1,001.25 + $2.8846 πΌππ£ππππ πππππ = $1,004.13 (Invoice Price) Suppose that today’s date is April 15. A bond with a 10% coupon, paid semiannually every January 15 and July 15 is quoted as selling at an ask price of 101.25. If you buy the bond from a dealer today, what price will you pay for it? π΄ππππ 15 ππ ππππ€ππ¦ π‘βπππ’πβ π‘βπ π πππππππ’ππ πππ’πππ ππππ πΌππ£ππππ πππππ π€πππ ππ βππβππ π‘βππ π‘βπ π π‘ππ‘ππ ππ π πππππ ππ¦ 0.50 π‘βπ π πππππππ’ππ πππ’πππ πΌππ£ππππ πππππ = ππ’ππ‘ππ πππππ + (0.50 × ππππππππ’ππ πππ’πππ) πΌππ£ππππ πππππ = $1,012.50 + (0.50 × $50) πΌππ£ππππ πππππ = $1,037.50 (Credit Default Swap) An investor believes that a bond may temporarily increase in credit risk. Which of the following would be the most liquid method of exploiting this? πΌππ£ππ π‘ππ ππππππ£ππ ππππ πππ¦ πππππππ π ππ ππππππ‘ πππ π π€βππβ ππππ ππ πππππ ππ ππππππ‘ πππππ’ππ‘ π π€πππ π·π’π π‘π π‘βπ π€πππππππ π π€ππ π πππππ π‘βπ ππ’ππβππ π ππ π ππππππ‘ πππππ’ππ‘ π ππ’ππ ππ πππ π‘ ππ’ππβππ ππ (Credit Default Swap) Which of the following most accurately describes the behavior of credit default swaps? πΆπππππ‘ πππππ’ππ‘ π π€πππ πππ ππππ π£πππ’ππππ πππππ’π π ππ ππππ‘πππ‘πππ πΆπππππ‘ πππππ’ππ‘ π π€πππ ππ πππ‘ ππππ£πππ ππππ‘πππ‘πππ ππππππ π‘ πππ‘ππππ π‘ πππ‘π πππ π πβπππππππ π€βππ ππππππ‘ πππ π πππππππ ππ , π π€ππ ππππππ’ππ πππππππ π (YTM) A zero-coupon bond with face value $1,000 and maturity of five years sells for $746.22 a. What is its yield to maturity? ππ = −746.22, πΉπ = 1,000, π = 5, πππ = 0, πΆππ πΌπ = 6.03% b. What will the yield to maturity be if the price falls to $730? ππ = −730.00, πΉπ = 1,000, π = 5, πππ = 0, πΆππ πΌπ = 6.50% (YTM) Two bonds have identical times to maturity and coupon rates. One is callable at 105, the other at 110. Which should have the higher yield to maturity? πβπ ππππ ππππππππ ππ‘ 105 π βππ’ππ π πππ ππ‘ π πππ€ππ πππππ πππππ’π π ππππ ππππ£ππ πππ π£πππ’ππππ π‘π ππππ πβπππππππ ππ‘π π¦ππππ π‘π πππ‘π’πππ‘π¦ π βππ’ππ ππ βππβππ (YTM, Price and, Maturity) Fill in the table below for the following zero-coupon bonds, all of which have par values of $1,000. Assume annual compounding Price $400.00 $500.00 $500.00 d e $400.00 Maturity (years) 20 20 10 10 10 f Yield to maturity (%) a b c 10.00 8.00 8.00 a. π = 20, πΉπ = 1,000, ππ = −400, πππ = 0, πΆππ πΌπ = 4.69% b. π = 20, πΉπ = 1,000, ππ = −500, πππ = 0, πΆππ πΌπ = 3.53% c. π = 10, πΉπ = 1,000, ππ = −500, πππ = 0, πΆππ πΌπ = 7.18% d. π = 10, πΉπ = 1,000, πΌπ = 10, πππ = 0, πΆππ ππ = $385.54 e. π = 10, πΉπ = 1,000, πΌπ = 8, πππ = 0, πΆππ ππ = $463.19 f. ππ = −400, πΌπ = 8, πππ = 0, πΉπ = 1,000, πΆππ π = 11.91 (Accrued Interest) A bond at par value makes semiannual payments with a coupon rate of 6%. If 45 days have passed since the last coupon payment, what is the accrued interest? π΄ππππ’ππ πΌππ‘ππππ π‘ = π·ππ¦π π ππππ πππ π‘ πππ’πππ πππ¦ππππ‘ π·ππ¦π ππ πππ’πππ ππππππ 45 π΄ππππ’ππ πΌππ‘ππππ π‘ = × $30 182 π΄ππππ’ππ πΌππ‘ππππ π‘ = $7.42 × π΄πππ’ππ πΆππ’πππ πππ¦ππππ‘ 2 (Current Yield) A bond with an annual coupon rate of 4.8% sells for $970. What is the bond’s current yield? π΄πππ’ππ πππ’πππ πΆπ’πππππ‘ π¦ππππ = πΆπ’πππππ‘ π¦ππππ = π΅πππ πππππ ($1,000×4.8%) $970 = 4.95% (EAY) Treasury bonds paying an 8% coupon rate with semiannual payments currently sell at par value. What coupon rate would they have to pay in order to sell at par if they paid their coupons annually? π΄πππ’ππ πππ’πππ πππ‘π π‘ πΈπππππ‘ππ£π ππππ’ππ π¦ππππ: πΈπ΄π = (1 + ) −1 2 0.08 πΈπ΄π = (1 + 2 )2 − 1 = 8.16 πΌπ ππππ’ππ πππ’πππ πππππ πππ π‘π π πππ ππ‘ πππ‘π’πππ‘π¦ π‘βππ¦ ππ’π π‘ πππππ π‘βπ π πππ πππ‘π π π 8.16% (BEY and EAY) A 20-year maturity bond with par value $1,000 makes semiannual coupon payments at a coupon rate of 8% a. Find the bond equivalent and effective annual yield to maturity of the bond if the bond price is $950? π = 40, πΉπ = 1,000, ππ = −950, πππ = 40, πΆππ πΌπ = 4.26% π΅πΈπ = πΌπ × 2 π΅πΈπ = 4.26% × 2 π΅πΈπ = 8.52% π΄πππ’ππ πππ’πππ πππ‘π π‘ πΈπ΄π = (1 + ) −1 2 πΈπ΄π = (1 + 0.0852 2 ) 2 − 1 = 0.0870 ππ 8.70% b. Find the bond equivalent yield and effective annual yield to maturity of the bond if the bond price is $1,000? π΅πππ π ππππππ ππ‘ πππ, π¦ππππ π‘π πππ‘π’πππ‘π¦ = π πππππππ’ππ πππ’πππ π΅πΈπ = πΌπ × 2 π΅πΈπ = 4% × 2 π΅πΈπ = 8% π΄πππ’ππ πππ’πππ πππ‘π π‘ πΈπ΄π = (1 + ) −1 2 πΈπ΄π = (1 + 0.08 2 ) 2 − 1 = 0.0816 ππ 8.16% c. Find the bond equivalent and effective annual yield to maturity of the bond if the bond price is $1,050? π = 40, πΉπ = $1,000, ππ = −$1,050, πππ = 40, πΆππ πΌπ = 3.76% π΅πΈπ = πΌπ × 2 π΅πΈπ = 3.76% × 2 = 7.52% π΄πππ’ππ πππ’πππ πππ‘π π‘ πΈπ΄π = (1 + ) −1 2 πΈπ΄π = (1 + 0.0752 2 ) 2 − 1 = 7.66% (Capital Gain) A bond has a par value of $1,000, a time to maturity of 10 years, and a coupon rate of 8%, with interest paid annually. If the current market price is $800, what will be the approximate capital gain of this bond over the next year if its yield to maturity remains unchanged? ππ = −800, πΉπ = 1,000, π = 10, πππ = 80, πΆππ πΌπ = 11.46% πΉπ = 1,000, π = 9, πππ = 80, πΌπ = 11.46, πΆππ ππ = 811.70 πΆππππ‘ππ πΊπππ = π1 − π0 πΆππππ‘ππ πΊπππ = $811.70 − $800.00 πΆππππ‘ππ πΊπππ = $11.70 (Par Value) A bond has a current yield of 9% and a yield to maturity of 10%. Is the bond selling above or below par value? πΌπ π‘βπ πππ > πΆπ’πππππ‘ π¦ππππ, ππππ ππππππ πππππ πππππππππ‘πππ ππ ππ‘ πππππππβππ πππ‘π’πππ‘π¦ πβπππππππ π‘βπ ππππ ππ π ππππππ πππππ€ πππ π£πππ’π (Bond Price and Total RoR) Consider a bond paying a coupon rate of 10% per year semiannually when the market interest rate is only 4% per half-year. The bond has three years until maturity. a. Find the bond’s price today and six months from now after the next coupon is paid $1,000 × 10% × 0.5 = $50 π0 = [ππππππππ’ππ × πΌππ‘ππππ π‘ πππ‘π × π] + [$1,000 × πΌππ‘ππππ π‘ πππ‘π × π] π0 = [$50 × 4% × 6] + [$1,000 × 4% × 6] π0 = $1,052.42 π1 = [$50 × 4% × 5] + [$1,000 × 4% × 5] π1 = $1,044.42 b. What is the total rate of return on the bond? π ππ‘π ππ πππ‘π’ππ = π ππ = π ππ = ππππππππ’ππ πππ’πππ+(π1 −π0 ) $50+($1,044.52−$1,052.42) π0 $1052.42 π ππ = 0.0400 ππ 4.00% πππ π ππ₯ ππππ‘βπ (Stated and Expected YTM) A 10-year bond of a firm in severe financial distress has a coupon rate of 14% and sells for $900. The firm is currently renegotiating the debt, and it appears that the lenders will allow the firm to reduce coupon payments on the bond to one-half the originally contracted amount. The firm can handle these lower payments. What are the stated and expected yield the maturity of the bonds? The bond makes its coupon payments annually. π = 10, ππ = −900, πΉπ = 1,000, πππ = 140, πΆππ πΌπ = 16.07% ππ‘ππ‘ππ πππ = πΆππ πΌπ; 16.07% π = 10, ππ = −900, πΉπ = 1,000, πππ = 70, πΆππ πΌπ = 8.53% πΈπ₯ππππ‘ππ πππ = πΆππ πΌπ πΈπ₯ππππ‘ππ πππ = 8.53% (HPR) You buy an eight-year maturity bond that has a 6% current yield and a 6% coupon (paid annually). In one year, promised yield to maturity has risen to 7%. What is your holding-period return? πΆπ’πππππ‘ π¦ππππ ππ ππππ’ππ πππ’πππ πππ‘π ππ 6% πππππ¦ π‘βππ‘ ππππ πππππ π€ππ ππ‘ πππ π π¦πππ πππ πΉπ = −1,000, π = 7, πΌπ = 7, πΆππ ππ = $946.11 πππππ‘ππ£π ππ’π‘π’ππ π£πππ’π+ππππ πππ‘ π£πππ’π+π΄πππ’ππ πππ’πππ π»ππππππ ππππππ πππ‘π’ππ = πΉπ’π‘π’ππ π£πππ’π π»ππππππ ππππππ πππ‘π’ππ = −$1,000+$946.11+$60 $1,000 = 0.0061 ππ 0.61% (YTM and Realized Compound YTM) A two-year bond with par value $1,000 making annual coupon payments of $100 is priced at $1,000 a. What is the yield to maturity of the bond π΅πππ ππ π ππππππ ππ‘ πππ π£πππ’π, ππ‘π πππ = πππ’πππ πππ‘π; 10% b. What will be the realized compound yield to maturity if the one-year interest rate next year turns out to be 8%, 10%, 12% πΆππ’πππ πππππ£ππ π‘ππ ππ π, π‘ππ‘ππ ππππππππ = [πΆππ’πππ × (1 + π) + (π0 + πΆππ’πππ)] πππ‘ππ πππππππ (8%) = [100 × (1 + 0.08) + (1,000 + 100)] πππ‘ππ πππππππ (8%) = $1,208 π πππππ§ππ πππ = √ πππ‘ππ πππππππ πππ ππππ’π −1 $1,208 π πππππ§ππ πππ (8%) = √$1,000 − 1 = 0.0991 ππ 9.91% πππ‘ππ πππππππ (10%) = [100 × (1 + 0.10) + (1,000 + 100) πππ‘ππ πππππππ (10%) = $1,210 $1,210 π πππππ§ππ πππ (10%) = √$1,000 − 1 = 0.100 ππ 10.00% πππ‘ππ πππππππ (12%) = [100 × (1 + 0.12) + (1,000 + 100) πππ‘ππ πππππππ (12%) = $1,212 $1,212 π πππππ§ππ πππ (12%) = √$1,000 − 1 π πππππ§ππ πππ (12%) = 0.01009 ππ 10.09% (YTM and Interest Rates) Fincorp issues tow bonds with 20-year maturities. Bond bonds are callable at $1,050. The first bond is issued at a deep discount with a coupon rate of 4% and a price of $580 to yield 8.4%. The second bond is issued at par value with a coupon rate of 8.75% a. What is the yield to maturity of the par bond? πππ ππ πππ ππππ = πππ’πππ πππ‘π; 8.75% b. If you expect rates to fall substantially in the next two years, which bond would you prefer to bond? 4% ππππ ππ‘π‘ππππ‘ππ£π, πππ’πππ πππ‘π πππ πππππ€ ππ’πππππ‘ ππππππ‘ π¦πππππ , πππππ πππ πππππ€ ππππ πππππ (Yield To Call) A 30-year maturity, 6% coupon bond paying coupons semiannually is callable in five years at a call price of $1,100. The bond currently sells at a yield to maturity of 5% (2.5% per half-year) a. What is the yield to call π = 60, πΌπ = 2.5, πΉπ = 1,000, πππ = 30, ππ = $1,154.5433 π = 10, ππ = −11,54.54, πΉπ = 1,100, πππ = 30, πΆππ πΌπ = 2.1703% πππππ π‘π ππππ = πΌπ × 2 πππππ π‘π ππππ = 2.1703% × 2 = 4.34% b. What is the yield to call if the call price is only $1,050? π = 10, ππ = −1,154.54, πΉπ = 1,100, πππ = 30, πΆππ πΌπ = 1.7625% πππππ π‘π ππππ = πΌπ × 2 πππππ π‘π ππππ = 1.7625% × 2 = 3.52% c. What is the yield to call if the call price is $1,100 but the bond can be called in two years instead of five years? π = 4, ππ = −1,154.54, πΉπ = 1,100, πππ = 30, πΆππ πΌπ = 1.4426% πππππ π‘π ππππ = πΌπ × 2 πππππ π‘π ππππ = 1.4426% × 2 = 2.89% (Imputed Interest) A newly issued 20-year-maturity, zero-coupon bond is issued with a yield to maturity of 8% and a face value $1,000. Find the imputed interest income in the first, second, and last year of the bon’s life. πΉπππ π£πππ’π πΆπππ π‘πππ‘ π¦ππππ π£πππ’π = (1+πππ)π $1,000 πΆπππ π‘πππ‘ π¦ππππ π£πππ’π (0) = (1.08)20 = $214.55 $1,000 πΆπππ π‘πππ‘ π¦ππππ π£πππ’π (1) = (1.08)19 = $231.71 $1,000 πΆπππ π‘πππ‘ π¦ππππ π£πππ’π (2) = (1.08)18 = $250.25 $1,000 πΆπππ π‘πππ‘ π¦ππππ π£πππ’π (19) = (1.08)1 = $925.93 $1,000 πΆπππ π‘πππ‘ π¦ππππ π£πππ’π (2) = (1.08)0 = $1,000 πΌπππ’π‘ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ = ππ − ππ−1 πΌπππ’π‘ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ (1) = $231.71 − $214.55 = $17.16 πΌπππ’π‘ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ (2) = $250.25 − $231.71 = $18.54 πΌπππ’π‘ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ (πππ π‘) = $1,000 − $925.92 = $74.07 (Bond Price and HPR) Assume you have a one-year investment horizon and are trying to choose among three bonds. All have the same degree of default risk and mature in 10 years. The first is a zero-coupon bond that pays $1,000 at maturity. The second has an 8% coupon rate and pays the $80 coupon once per year. The third has a 10% coupon rate and pays the $1,00 coupon once per year. Assume that all bonds are compounded annually. a. πΌπ πΌπ πΌπ If all three bonds are now priced to yield 8% to maturity, what are their prices? = 8, π = 10, πππ = 0, πΉπ = 1,000, πΆππ ππ = $463.19 = 8, π = 10, πππ = 80, πΉπ = 1,000, πΆππ ππ = $1,000.00 = 8, π = 10, πππ = 100, πΉπ = 1,000, πΆππ ππ = $1,134.20 b. If you expect their yield to maturity to be 8% at the beginning of next year, what will their prices be then? πΌπ = 8, π = 9, πππ = 0, πΉπ = 1,000, πΆππ ππ = $500.25 πΌπ = 8, π = 9, πππ = 80, πΉπ = 1,000, πΆππ ππ = $1,000.00 πΌπ = 8, π = 9, πππ = 1000, πΉπ = 1,000, πΆππ ππ = $1,124.94 c. What is your rate of return on each bond during the one-year holding period? (π −π +πΆππ’πππ) π»ππππππ ππππππ πππ‘π’ππ = 1 0 π»ππππππ ππππππ πππ‘π’ππ = π0 $500.25−$463.19+$0 $463.19 π»ππππππ ππππππ πππ‘π’ππ = 8% $1,000−$1,000+$80 π»ππππππ ππππππ πππ‘π’ππ = $1,000 π»ππππππ ππππππ πππ‘π’ππ = 8% $1,124.94−$1,134.20+$100 π»ππππππ ππππππ πππ‘π’ππ = $1,134.20 π»ππππππ ππππππ πππ‘π’ππ = 8% (Forward Rate, Yield Curve, YTM, and Expected Total Return) The yield curve for default-free zero-coupon bonds is currently as follows: Maturity (years) YTM 1 10% 2 11% 3 12% a. What are the implied one-year forward rates? Maturity (years) YTM 1 10.0% 2 11.0% 3 12.0% (1+πππ)π‘ π‘−1 π‘−1 ) 2 (1.11) πΉπππ€πππ πππ‘π = (1+πππ πΉπππ€πππ πππ‘π (2) = (1.10) (1.12)3 Forward rate a b −1 − 1 = 12.01% πΉπππ€πππ πππ‘π (3) = (1.11)2 − 1 = 14.03% b. Assume that the pure expectations hypothesis of the term structure is correct. If the market expectations are accurate, what will the pure yield curve (that is, the yields to maturity on one and two-year zero-coupon bonds) be next year? πβπππ‘ π’ππ€πππ ππ’π π‘π π‘βππ π¦πππ ′ π π’ππ€πππ π ππππππ π¦ππππ ππ’ππ£π c. What will be the yield to maturity on two-year zeros? πππ π£πππ’π πππππ = (1+πΉπππ€πππ πππ‘π )×(1+ππΉπππ€πππ πππ‘π ) π‘ 1,000 π‘−1 πππππ2 = (1.1403×1.1201) = $782.93 π = 2, ππ = −782.92, πΉπ = 1,000, πππ = 0, πΆππ πΌπ = 13.01% d. If you purchase a two-year zero-coupon bond now, what is the expected total rate of return over the next year? Ignore taxes. Compute the three-year return as well. π = 2, πΉπ = 1,000, πππ = 0, πΌπ = 11.0%, πΆππ ππ = $811.62 π = 3, πΉπ = 1,000, πππ = 0, πΌπ = 12.0%, πΆππ ππ = $711.78 1,000 πππππ1 = = $892.78 πΈ(π) = (1.1201) ππΉπππ€πππ π ππ‘π −1 ππ·ππ πππ’ππ‘ππ 892.78 πΈ(π‘π€π π¦πππ) = 811.62 − 1 πΈ(π‘π€π π¦πππ) = 10.00% 782.93 πΈ(π‘βπππ π¦πππ) = −1 711.78 πΈ(π‘βπππ π¦πππ) = 10.00% (Forward Rate, Hypothesis, and Theory) The yield to maturity on one-year zero-coupon bonds is 8%. The yield to maturity on two-year zero-coupon bonds is 9%. a. What is the forward rate of interest for the second year? π2 ππ πππ‘π π‘βππ‘ πππππ πππ‘π’ππ ππππ πππππππ ππ£ππ 1 π¦πππ π πππ ππ πππ‘π’ππ ππππ 2 π¦πππ (1 + πππ) × (1 + ππππ€πππ πππ‘π) = (1 + πππ)π‘ (1 + 8%) × (1 + π2 ) = (1 + 9%)2 π2 = 0.1001 ππ 10.01% b. If you believe in the expectations hypothesis, what is your best guess as to the expected value of the short-term interest rate next year? πΉπππ€πππ πππ‘π = ππ₯ππππ‘ππ π£πππ’π ππ π βππππ‘ π‘πππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ πππ‘π; 10.01% c. If you believe in the liquidity preference theory, is your best guess as to next year’s short-term interest rate higher or lower than in (b)? πΏπππ’ππππ‘π¦ ππππππππππ = ππππ€πππ πππ‘π > π βπππ‘ − π‘πππ πππ‘ππππ π‘; π π πππ€ππ (Forward Rate and Expected Yields) Consider the following $1,000 par value zero-coupon bonds: Bond Years until maturity Yield to maturity A 1 5% B 2 6% C 3 6.5% D 4 7% a. According to the expectations hypothesis, what is the market’s expectation of the oneyear interest rate three years from now? (1+πππ)π‘ ππ‘ = (1+πππ π4 = (1.07)4 π‘−1 π‘−1 ) (1.065)3 −1 − 1 = 8.51% πΈπ₯ππππ‘ππ‘πππ βπ¦πππ‘βππ ππ πΌπ = ππ‘ ; 8.51% b. What are the expected values of next year’s yields on bonds with maturities of 1 year, 2 years, 3 years? π2 = ππ‘ = 1.062 1.05 − 1 = 7.01%, πππ π£πππ’π (1+ππ‘+1 )×(1+ππ‘)×(1+ππ ) 1,000 π3 = , 1.0653 1.062 1,000 − 1 = 7.51% π4 = π1 = 1.0701 = $934.50 π2 = 1.0701×1.0751 = $869.21 1,000 π3 = 1.0701×1.0751×1.0851 = $801.04 π = 1, ππ = −934.50, πΉπ = 1,000, πππ = 0, πΆππ πΌπ = 7.01% π = 2, ππ = −869.24, πΉπ = 1,000, πππ = 0, πΆππ πΌπ = 7.26% π = 3, ππ = −801.04, πΉπ = 1,000, πππ = 0, πΆππ πΌπ = 7.68% 1.074 1.0653 − 1 = 8.51% (HPR, OID, Realized Compound Yield) A newly issued bond pays its coupons once a year. Its coupon rate is 5%, its maturity is 20 years, and its yield to maturity is 8% a. Find the holding-period return for a one-year investment period if the bond is selling at a yield to maturity of 7% by the end of the year π = 20, πππ = 50, πΉπ = 1,000, πΌπ = 8, πΆππ ππ = 705.46 π = 19, πππ = 50, πΉπ = 1,000, πΌπ = 7, πΆππ ππ = 793.29 πΆππ’πππ+π1 −π0 π»ππππππ ππππππ πππ‘π’ππ = π 0 π»ππππππ ππππππ πππ‘π’ππ = $50+$793.29−$705.46 $705.46 = 19.54% b. If you sell the bond after one year when its yield is 7%, what taxes will you owe if the tax rate on interest income is 40% and the tax rate on capital gains income is 30%? The bond is subject to original-issue discount (OID) tax treatment ππΌπ· π‘ππ₯ ππ’ππ, πππ π‘ πππ ππ πππ ππππ’π‘ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ π’ππππ ππππ π‘πππ‘ π¦ππππ πππππππ ππ¦ πππ πππ’ππ‘πππ π·ππ πππ’ππ‘ππ ππ‘ ππππππππ π¦ππππ π‘π πππ‘π’πππ‘π¦ πππ ππππ’ππππ π‘βπ πππ‘π’πππ‘π¦ ππ¦ πππ π¦πππ ππ‘ π π‘πππ π = 19, πππ = 50, πΉπ = 1,000, πΌπ = 8, πΆππ ππ = 711.89 πΌπππ’π‘ππ π‘ππ₯ πππ‘ππππ π‘ = π1 − π0 πΌπππ’π‘ππ π‘ππ₯ πππ‘ππππ π‘ = $711.89 − $705.46 = $6.43 πππ₯ π€ππ‘β πππ’πππ = πππ₯ πππ‘π × (πΆππ’πππ + πΌπππ’π‘ππ π‘ππ₯ πππ‘ππππ π‘) πππ₯ π€ππ‘β πππ’πππ = 40% × ($50 + $6.43) = $22.57 πΆππππ‘ππ πΊπππ = π΄ππ‘π’ππ πππππ ππ‘ ππππππ€ − πΆπππ π‘πππ‘ πππππ πππππ = π1 − π1 π΄πππ’π π‘ππ πΆππππ‘ππ πΊπππ = $793.29 − $711.89 = $81.40 πππ₯ ππ πππππ‘ππ ππππ = 30% × $81.40 = $24.42 πππ‘ππ π‘ππ₯ππ = $22.57 + $24.42 = $46.99 c. What is the after-tax holding-period return on the bond? π΄ππ‘ππ π‘ππ₯ π»ππ = $50+($793.29−$705.46)−$46.99 $705.46 = 12,88% d. Find the realized compound yield before taxes for a two-year holding period assuming you sell the bond after two years, the bond yield is 7% at the end of the second year, and the coupon can be reinvested for one year at a 3% interest rate π = 18, πππ = 50, πΉπ = 1,000, πΌπ = 7, πΆππ ππ = $798.82 πππ‘ππ ππππππ ππππ π‘π€π πππ’ππππ = (πΆππ’πππ × (1 + πππππ£ππ π‘ πππ‘π)) + πΆππ’πππ πππ‘ππ ππππππ ππππ π‘π€π πππ’ππππ = ($50 × 1.03) + $50 = $101.50 πππ‘ππ πππ‘ππ π‘π€π π¦ππππ = ππ + π‘ππ‘ππ ππππππ πππ‘ππ πππ‘ππ π‘π€π π¦ππππ = $798.82 + $101.50 = $900.32 π0 × (1 + π)π‘ = π‘ππ‘ππ πππ‘ππ π‘π€π π¦ππππ $705.46 × (1 + π)2 = $900.32 π = 12.97% e. Use the tax rates in part (b) to compute the after-tax two-year realized compound yield. Remember to take account of OID tax rules πππ‘ πππ β ππππ€ = πΆππ’πππ − πππ₯ ππ πππ’πππ − πππ₯ ππ ππππ’π‘ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ πππ‘ πππ β ππππ€ = $50 − 20 − (40% × $6.43) = $27.43 πΌπ π¦ππ’ πππππ£ππ π‘ π¦πππ − 1 πππ β ππππ€ ππ‘ πππ‘ππ π‘ππ₯ πππ‘π ππ 3% × (1 − 40%) = 1.8% ππππ 2 = $27.43 × 1.018 = $27.92 π = 18, πΌπ = 8, πππ = 50, πΉπ = 1,000, πΆππ ππ = $718.84 πΌπππ’π‘ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ = $718.84 − $711.89 = $6.95 $829.97 = $798.82 − (40% × $6.95) + ($50 × (1 − 40%)) − (30% × ($798.82 − $718.84) + $27.92 πΌππ£ππ π‘ππππ‘ ππππ€π ππππ $705.46 π‘π $829.97 πππ‘ππ π‘π€π π¦ππππ 705.46 × (1 + π)2 = 829.97 π = 8.47% Chapter Connect 13 Summary - - - - One approach to firm valuation is to focus on the firm’s book value, either as it appears on the balance sheet or adjusted to reflect the current replacement cost of assets or the liquidation value. Another approach is to focus on the present value of expected future dividends The dividend discount model holds that the price of a share of stock should equal the present value of all future dividends per share, discounted at an interest rate commensurate with the risk of the stock The constant-growth version of the DDM asserts that if dividends are expected to grow at a constant rate forever, then the intrinsic value of the stock is given by the formula: π·1 πΆπππ π‘πππ‘ ππππ€π‘β π·π·π: π0 = π−π The constant-growth version of the DDM is simplistic in its assumption of a constant value of g. There are more sophisticated multistage versions of the model for more complex environments. When the constant-growth assumption is reasonably satisfied, however, the formula can be inverted to infer the market capitalization for the stock: π· π = π1 + π 0 - Stock market analysts devote considerable attention to a company’s price-earnings ratio. The P/E ratio is a useful measure of the market’s assessment of the firm’s growth opportunities. Firms with no growth opportunities should have a P/E ratio that is just the reciprocal of the capitalization rate, k. As no growth opportunities become a progressively more important component of the total value of the firm, the P/E ratio will increase - Many analysts form their estimates of a stock’s value by multiplying their forecast of next year’s EPS by a predicted P/E multiple. Some analysts mix the P/E approach with the dividend discount model. They use an earnings multiplier to forecast the terminal value of shares at a future date an add the present value of that terminal value to the present value of all interim dividend payments - The free cash flow approach is the one used most in corporate finance. The analyst first estimates the value of the firm as the present value of expected future free cash flows to the entire firm and then subtracts the value of all claims other than equity. Alternatively, the free cash flow to equity can be discounted at a rate appropriate to the risk of the stock. - The models presented in this chapter can be used to explain or to forecast the behavior of the aggregate stock market. The key macroeconomic variables that determine the level of stock prices in the aggregate are interest rates and corporate profit π·1 π·2 π·π» +ππ» πΌππ π‘ππππ ππ π£πππ’π = π0 = 1+π + (1+π) 2 + β― + (1+π)π» πΊπππ€π‘β ππππππ‘π’πππ‘πππ : πππππ = π0 πΈ1 π 1 + πππΊπ π·ππ‘ππππππππ‘ ππ ππΈ πππ‘ππ: πΈ = π (1 + 1 πππΊπ πΈ ( 1) π πΉπππ πππ β ππππ€: πΉπΆπΉπΉ = πΈπ΅πΌπ(1 − π‘π ) + π·ππππππππ‘πππ − πΆππππ‘ππ πΈπ₯π − πΌππππππ π ππ πππΆ πΉπππ πππ β ππππ€: πΉπΆπΉπΈ = πΉπΆπΉπΉ − πΌππ‘ππππ π‘ ππ₯ππππ π × (1 − π‘π ) + πΌππππππ π ππ πππ‘ ππππ‘ Chapter 13 Slides Summary - Equity Valuation o Book value – net worth of common equity according to a firm’s balance sheet o Alternatives to book value βͺ Liquidation value – net amt by selling assets of firm and paying debt βͺ Replacement cost – cost to replace firm’s assets βͺ Tobin’s q – ratio of firm’s market value to replacement cost o πΈπ₯ππππ‘ππ π»ππ = πΈ(π) = - πΈ(π·1 )+[πΈ(π1 )−π0 π0 Intrinsic Value versus Market Price o Intrinsic value – pv of firm’s expected future net cash flows disc by ror o Market Capitalization Rate – est of appropriate discount rate for cash flows (k) π· +π o πΌππ‘ππππ ππ ππππ’π (πππ ππππππ): π0 = 1 1 1+π π· π· π· +π 1 2 π» π» o πΌππ‘ππππ ππ ππππ’π (βππππππ ππππππ): π0 = 1+π + (1+π) 2 + β― + (1+π) π» π· π· π· 1 2 3 o π·ππ£πππππ π·ππ πππ’ππ‘ πππππ: π0 = 1+π + (1+π) 2 + (1+π)3 … - Dividend Discount Models o πΆπππ π‘πππ‘ πΊπππ€π‘β π·π·π: π0 = π·1 π−π o Constant Growth DDM has a higher value when more dividend, lower k, higher g π· π −π π· o πΈ(π) = π·ππ£πππππ πππππ + πΆππππ‘ππ πΊππππ πππππ = π1 + 1π 0 = π1 + π 0 - 0 0 o Dividend payout ratio – percentage of earnings paid as dividends o Plowback/earnings retention ratio – proportion of firm’s earnings reinvested o Present value of growth opportunities (PVGO) πΈ o π0 = ππ ππππ€π‘β ππππ’π πππ πβπππ + πππΊπ = π1 + πππΊπ o Two-stage DDM – DDM in which dividend growth assumed to level off o Multistage Growth Models – allow div to grow at different rates as firm matures o As firm matures low reinvestment means a lower growth in dividends o As firm matures high reinvestment means a higher growth in dividends Price-Earnings Ratios o Price-earnings multiple – ratio of stock’s price to earnings per share π 1 πππΊπ o π·ππ‘ππππππππ‘ ππ ππΈ πππ‘ππ: πΈ0 = π [1 + πΈ1 ] 1 (π) o ππΈ πππ πΉπππ πΊπππ€πππ ππ‘ πΏπππ π π’π ππ’π π‘πππππππ ππππ: π0 πΈ1 = 1−π π−π = 1−π π−π ππΈ×π π o PEG Ratio – ratio of P/E multiple to earnings growth rate: π (πΈ0 ) 1 π 1−π o ππΈ π ππ‘ππ: πΈ0 = π−π o o o o o 1 Riskier stocks have lower PE, higher required RoR, and a higher k Pitfalls of P/E is acc flexibility to improve profit, large discretion in earnings PE ratios decrease as inflation increases Con Ed increases EPS over time, PepsiCo EPS remains flat over time Con Ed PE ratio decreases over time, PepsiCo PE ratio increases over time o o o o o - Cycl adjusted P/E ratio divide stock price by e(r), uses inflation-adjusted earnings Combining PE Analysis and the DDM estimates stock price at horizon date PE ratio highest before recession CAPE lowest before recession, not inversely just gauged more accurately Other comparative ratios βͺ Price-to-book – how aggressively market values firm βͺ Price-to-cash-flow – cash flows less affected by accounting then earnings βͺ Price-to-sales – for start-ups with no earnings Free Cash Flow Valuation Approaches o πΉπππ πΆππ β πΉπππ€ (πΉπππ): πΉπΆπΉπΉ = πΈπ΅πΌπ × (1 − π‘π ) + π·ππ − πΆπππΈπ₯ − βπππΆ βͺ πΈπ΅πΌπ = πΈπππππππ ππππππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ πππ π‘ππ₯ππ βͺ π‘π = πΆπππππππ‘π π‘ππ₯ πππ‘π o πΉπΆπΉπΈ (πΈππ’ππ‘π¦): πΉπΆπΉπΈ = πΉπΆπΉπΉ − πΌππ‘ππππ π‘ πΈπ₯π × (1 − π‘π ) + βπππ‘ π·πππ‘ πΉπΆπΉπΉ1 ππ o ππππππππ ππππ’π πΆπππ π‘πππ‘ πΊπππ€π‘β: πΉπππ ππππ’π = ∑ππ‘=1 (1+ππ΄πΆπΆ) π‘ + (1+ππ΄πΆπΆ)π βͺ πΉπΆπΉπΉ π+1 Where ππ = ππ΄πΆπΆ−π πΉπΆπΉπΈπ‘ o ππππππ‘ ππππ’π ππ πΈππ’ππ‘π¦: ∑ππ‘=1 (1+π βͺ - Where ππ = πΉπΆπΉπΈπ+1 ππΈ −π πΈ )π‘ π + (1+ππ )π πΈ , ππΈ = πΆππ π‘ ππ πΈππ’ππ‘π¦ πΆππππ‘ππ o Diff valuation models differ in practice and stem from simplifying assumptions o Prob w DCF models: imprecise, investors like real assets over profit over growth The Aggregate Stock Market o Earnings mult at aggregate level, forecast profits for period, derive PE based on ir o Earnings yield of S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Bond highly corr until recently o S&P 500 Forecasts βͺ Treasury bond yield decreases as optimism increases βͺ Earnings yield decreases as optimism increases (T-bond yield plus 2.75%) βͺ Resulting P/E ratio increases as optimism increases (reciprocal of e(r)) βͺ EPS forecast remains unchanged as optimism increases βͺ Forecast for S&P 500 increases as optimism increases Chapter 10 Connect Summary - Debt securities are distinguished by their promise to pay a fixed or specified stream of income to their holders. The coupon bond is a typical debt security - Treasury notes and bonds have original maturities greater than one year. They are issued at or near par value, with their prices quoted net of accrued interest - Callable bonds should offer higher promised yield to maturity to compensate investors for the fact that they will not realize full capital gains should the interest rate fall and the bonds be called away from the at the stipulated call price. Bonds often are issued with a period of call protection. In addition, discount bonds selling significantly below their call price offer implicit call protection - Put bonds give the bondholder rather than the issuer the choice to terminate or extend the life of the bond - Floating-rate bonds pay a fixed premium over a reference short-term interest rate. Risk is limited because the rate paid is tied to current market conditions - The yield to maturity is the single discount rate that equates the present value of a security’s cash flows to its price. Bond prices and yields are inversely related. For premium bonds, the coupon rate is greater than the current yield, which is greater than the yield to maturity. These inequalities are reversed for discount bonds - The yield to maturity often is interpreted as an estimate of the average rate of return to an investor who purchases a bond and holds it until maturity. However, when future rates are uncertain, actual returns including reinvested coupons may diverge from yield to maturity. Related measures are yield to call, realized compound yield, and expected (versus promised) yield to maturity - Treasury bills are US government issued zero-coupon bonds with original maturities of up to one year. Treasury STRIPS are longer-term default-free-zero-coupon bonds. The prices of zero-coupon bonds rise exponentially over time, providing a rate of appreciation equal to the interest rate. The IRS treats this price appreciation as imputed taxable interest income to the investor - When bonds are subject to potential default, the stated yield to maturity is the maximum possible yield to maturity that can be realized by the bondholder. In the event of default, however, that promised yield will not be realized. To compensate bond investors for default risk, bonds must offer default premiums, that is, promised yield more than those offered by default-free government securities - Bond safety often is measured using financial ratio analysis. Bond indentures offer Safeguards to protect the claims of bondholders. Common indentures specify sinking fund requirements, collateralization, dividend restrictions, and subordination of future debt - Credit default swaps provide insurance against the default of a bond or loan. The swap buyer pays an annual premium to the swap dealer but collects a payment equal to lost value if the loan later goes into default - The term structure of interest rates is the relationship between time to maturity and term to maturity. The yield curve is a graphical depiction of the term structure. The forward rate is the breakeven interest rate that would equate the total return on a rollover strategy to that of a longer-term zero-coupon bond - The expectations hypothesis holds that forward interest rates are unbiased forecasts of future interest rates. The liquidity preference theory, however, argues that long-term bonds will carry a risk premium known as liquidity premium. A positive liquidity premium can cause the yield curve to slope upward even if no increase in short rates is anticipated 1 1 1 πππππ ππ π π΅πππ: πππππ = πΆππ’πππ × π [1 − (1+π)π + πππ π£πππ’π × (1+π)π πππππ ππ π π΅πππ: πππππ = πΆππ’πππ × π΄πππ’ππ‘π¦ ππππ‘ππ(π, π) + πππ π£πππ’π × ππ ππππ‘ππ(π, π) (1+π¦π )π πΉπππ€πππ πππ‘π ππ πππ‘ππππ π‘ = 1 + ππ = (1+π¦ π−1 ) π−1 πΏπππ’πππ‘π¦ ππππππ’π: πΉπππ€πππ πππ‘π − πΈπ₯ππππ‘ππ π βπππ‘ πππ‘π Chapter 10 Slides Summary - Bond Characteristics o Bond – security that obligates issuer to make payments to holder over time o Face Value = Par Value – payment to bondholder at maturity of bond o Coupon Rate – bond’s annual interest payment per dollar of par value o Zero-Coupon Bond – pays no coupons, sells at discount, pays par value at t o Accrued interested and quoted bond prices – price no inclu int btw pmt dates π΄πππ’ππ πππ’πππ πππ¦ππππ‘ π·ππ¦π π ππππ πππ π‘ πππ’πππ πππ¦ππππ‘ o π΄ππππ’ππ πΌππ‘ππππ π‘(π΄. πΌ. ) = × π·ππ¦π ππ‘π€ πππ’πππ πππ¦ππππ‘π 2 o o o o o o Callable bonds – corp bond provision, repurchased by issuer at specified p/n Convertible bonds – let exchange bond for number of common stock shares Puttable bonds – holder may choose to exchange for par value or more of n Floating-rate bonds – coupon rates reset according to specified market date Preferred stock – commonly pays fixed dividend βͺ Floating-rate preferred stock becoming more popular βͺ Dividends not normally tax deductible βͺ Corp that purchase other corp ref stock taxed only 30% of div received Other domestic bond issuers βͺ Municipal bonds, FHLBB, GNMA (mae), FNMA (mae), FHLMC (mac), Farm Foreign bonds – issued in diff country from sold country, denominated not usd Eurobonds – denominated in foreign issue money different than that of market Innovation in the bond market βͺ Maturity – usually 30, now can be 50 to 100 years βͺ Inverse floaters – coupon rate falls when interest rates rise βͺ Asset-backed bonds – income from assets used to service debt βͺ Pay-in-kind bonds – issuers can pay interest in cash or add bonds βͺ Catastrophe bonds – higher coupon rates to investors for risk βͺ Indexed bonds – pmt tied to general price index or price of commodity βͺ TIPS – par value increases with consumer price index πΌππ‘ππππ π‘+πππππ π΄ππππππππ‘πππ πππππππ π ππ‘π’ππ = πΌπππ‘πππ πππππ o π πππ π ππ‘π’ππ = o o o o - 1+πππππππ π ππ‘π’ππ 1+πΌπππππ‘πππ Bond Pricing o π΅πππ π£πππ’π = ππ£ ππ πππ’ππππ + ππππ πππ‘ πππ π£πππ’π πΆππ’πππ πππ ππππ’π o π΅πππ π£πππ’π = ∑ππ‘=1 π‘ + π ; T = maturity date; r = discount rate (1+π) - −1 (1+π) o π΅πππ πππππ = πππ’πππ × ππππ’ππ‘π¦ ππππ‘ππ(π, π‘) + πππ × ππ ππππ‘ππ(π, π) o π΅πππ πππππ = πΆππ’πππ × o o o o Prices fall as market interest rate rises Interest rate fluctuations are primary source of bond market risk Bonds with longer maturities more sensitive to fluctuations in interest rate Bond pricing between coupon dates – invoice price = flat price + accrued interest 1−(1+π)−π π 1 + πππ ππππ’π × (1+π)π Bond Yields o YTM – discount rate that makes pv of bond’s patments equal to price o Current annual – annual coupon divided by bond’s price o Premium bonds – bonds selling above par value o Discount bonds – bonds selling below par value o Yield to Call – calc like ytm, n until call replaces n until maturity, prem called o Realized compound return – comp ror with all coupons reinvested until maturity o Horizon analysis – bonds returns over horizon, based on forecasts of YTM + o Reinvestment rate risk – uncertainty cumulative future value of reinv pmt - - - - Bond Prices Over Time o YTM versus Holding Period Return βͺ YTM measures ror if bond held to maturity βͺ HPR rate over period, depends on market price at end of the period o Zero-Coupon bond – no coupon, all return is price appreciation o STRIPS – creation of zero-coupon bonds from coupon-bearing notes and bonds o After tax returns – built in price appreciation is interest, IRS calc Default Risk and Bond Pricing o Investment grade BBB and above by S&P or Baa and above by Moody’s o Speculative BB or lower by S&P or Ba or lower by Moody’s o Coverage ratios – company earnings to fixed costs o Leverage ratios – debt to equity o Liquidity ratios – current (assets to liabilities), quick (assets excl inv to liabilities) o Profitability ratios – ror on assets or equity o Cash flow-to-debt ratio – total cash flow to outstanding debt o Indenture – contract between issuer and holder o Sinking fund -indenture calling for issuer to repurchase bond before mature o Subordination clause – restriction on additional borrowing o Collateral – specific asset pledged against possible default o Debenture – bond not backed by specific collateral o YTM and Default – stated yield max yield, default premium incr promised yield o Credit Default Swaps – insurance to buy protection against large losses Yield Curve o Graph of yield to maturity as a function of term to maturity o Term structure of IR – relat btw ytm and terms across bonds o Expectation hypothesis – ytm based on short-term interest rates o Forward rate – inferred short-term roi for future period equal of rollover o (1 + π¦π )π = (1 + π¦π−1 )π−1 × (1 + ππ ) o Liquidity preference – risk prem for short extra demand, spread btw forward roi o ππ = πΈ(ππ ) + πΏπππ’πππ‘π¦ ππππππ’π Interest Rate Risk o Bond prices and yield inversely related o Increase in bond’s ytm smaller price chance than yield decrease of equal magnit o Long-term bond prices more sensitive to ir changes than short-term o As maturity increases, sensitive of bond p to changes in yield incre at lower rate o IR risk inversely related to coupon rate, low-coupon more sensitive to IR o Sensitivity of bond’ price-to-yield change inversely to current ytm o Macaulay’s Duration (D) βͺ Measures effective bond maturity βͺ Weight average of the times until each payment weight prop to pv of pmt πΆπΉπ‘ ) (1+π¦)π‘ π· = ∑ππ‘=1 π‘ × π€π‘ where π€π‘ = π΅πππ πππππ βͺ πΆβππππ ππ ππππ π π‘π π¦π‘π: βͺ o (. βͺ βπ π β(1+π¦) = π·×[ π· ππππππππ π·π’πππ‘πππ (π· ∗) = 1+π¦ , βπ π 1+π¦ ] = −π· ∗× βπ¦ Determining Duration βͺ Zero-coupon bond’s duration is time to maturity βͺ Holding time and ytm same, duratio and ir sensitivity high when coup low βͺ Coup rate same, bond dur and ir sens inc w T, dur inc w T for bonds ± par βͺ All constant, durat and ir sens of coupon higher when bond ytm lower 1+π¦ βͺ π·π’πππ‘πππ ππ π ππππππ‘π’ππ‘π¦ = π¦