SECTION 4.1 CREATING LINEARITY BY USING TRANSFORMATIONS ACTIVITY 4) MODELLING CANCER IN BODY Get into groups of 4 or 5 Only one person begins to roll – each roll represents a year 1,2,3,4,6 Number of cancer cells to add 5 a new cancer cell is created, another person is added for the number of rolls per year Record your data on the grid Is the pattern linear or curved? What mathematical model would best describe the pattern of points? Exponential Cubic? Logarithms? Root Functions? INTRODUCTION In this section we will develop models for two-variable data that shows a non-linear relationship Use “transformations” of data to ‘straighten’ out non-linear patterns 3 Ex: Suppose we have data from a cubic function: y 0.5 x 2 The graph of y=0.5x^3+2 is a cubic function that is curved To linearize the function, apply the inverse function to the “y” variable (Cube root y-variable) Now graph “x” vs “cube root of y” ADVANTAGES OF TRANSFORMING NON-LINEAR DATA: Many two-variable datas have a non-linear relationship Ie: Brain mass vs Body mass Height vs Body Mass Length vs Volume Applying the inverse function to “y”, ie: “Logarithm” for exponential functions, “Square Root” for quadratic equations straighten non-linear patterns When the data is “straighten” we can use a LSRL to predict the response variables “y” Note: Logarithms are used in Math 12 to find the exponent of a base 10 number log a b log a log b log a b log a log b log a b b log a Review of Logarithms Section 2.3 Data were collect on two variables “x” and “y” to create a model to predict “y” from “x”. The following scatter plot was created. Which of the following transformations would be most appropriate for creating linearity between the variables? y a) Take the cube of “Y” b) Take the cube root of “Y” c) Take the Square root of “Y” d) Take the log of “Y” d) Take the log of both “Y” and “x” x The Ti-83 can perform other Non linear regressions Quadratic Regr. y ax bx c 2 x y ab Exponential Regr. Logarithmic Regr. Power Regr. y ax y a b ln x b Logistic Regression – useful for data that increases exponentially and then plateaus to an upper limit c y 1 ae bx In this course, we use only Linear Regressions EX: THE NUMBER OF CELL PHONE SUBSCRIBERS IN THE US 1990-1999 a) Use your Ti-83 to make a scatterplot b) Find the LSRL, slope, r, and r2. Explain whether if the LSRL is a good model or not c) Create a residual plot to justify your answer Contin... # of Subscribers a) Plug the data into L1 and L2 Year after 1990 b) Perform a Linear Regression on the data An r2 of 0.93 indicate that the LSRL is a good model for the data. However, a residual plot may be needed for further determination c) Create a residual plot: The residual plot shows a curved pattern. This indicates that a straight line is a poor model d) Does the data resemble a exponential curve. Take the logarithm of all Y-values and create a scatter plot of Log(y) vs (x) e) Find the LSRL of Log(y) vs (x). Find the slope, r, and r2. What information does “r” give us? Rewrite the equation using “Number of Subscribers” as a function of “Years after 1990” f) Use the equation from part “e” to predict the number of subscribers in 2001 and 2010 d) Create a scatterplot of Log(y) vs (x) e) Find the LSRL for Log(y) vs (x) The LSRL intersects almost all the points. An r2 of 0.982 indicate that an exponential regression is a strong model for the data. log y 3.7956 0.13417 x log # 3.7956 0.13417 year after ofPredicted 1990 Subscribers f) Using the regression line, predict the number of subscribers for 2001 (x= 11) and 2010 (x= 20) log y 3.7956 0.13417 x log y 3.7956 0.13417 11 log y 5.271505033 11 log y 3.7956 0.13417 y 6246.424 1.362 x log y 3.7956 0.13417 20 y 6246.424 29.9139 log y 6.479 y 105.27505033 y 186855 6.479 y 186855 You get the same answer with an y 3,013,006 exponential regression y 10 Do the same thing but with a Exponential Regression y 6246.424 1.362 x RECOGNIZING EXPONENTIAL PATTERNS: The terms of an exponential function increases/decreases by a common ratio/fixed percentage To determine whether if a data set is increasing exponentially, take the response value of one variable and divide it by the previous year # subscribers 1997 55,312 1.25586 # subscribers 1996 44, 043 69, 209 # subscribers 1998 1.2512 55,312 # subscribers 1997 # subscribers 1999 86, 047 1.24329 # subscribers 1998 69, 209 If these ratios are very close or equal, then it suggests an exponential growth for the data TRANSFORMING EXPONENTIAL PATTERNS WITH LOGARITHMS An exponential regression is in the form: y a xb To create a linear relationship, take the logarithm of both sides y a b x x x log y log aa log b b log y log a x log b Y-intercept Slope An linear relationship is determined between log y and x A LSRL would be used to predict Log(y) when we have “x” To solve for “y” when we have Log(y), use anti-log or convert it back to an exponent with base 10 log y x log 3 log y 0.55 log y log 3x log10 y 0.55 y 100.55 y3 x Ex: Convert the following equations to exponential form: a)log y log 0.73 x log 0.5 log y log 0.73 log 0.5 x log y log 0.73 0.5 y 0.73 0.5x x b)2log y x log 0.49 log 0.36 log y 0.5x log 0.49 0.5 log 0.36 log y log 0.490.5 x log 0.360.5 log y log 0.7 x log 0.6 x x log yy log 0.7 0.60.6 0.7 POWER LAW MODEL: 3D solids or 2D solids, Mass vs Growth Rate Mass vs Rate of Reproduction, Size vs Life Expectancy Metabolism vs Body Mass of Animals The Power Law Model uses a regression in the form: y A x B Common in geometry and Biology Commonly used when two Quantitative variables have different exponents 2 4 3 2 Weight BMI Height V R SA 4 R 3 3 4 Metabolism a Weight Height 1D Radius 1D Weigh t 3 D Volume 3D SA 2D Data is neither “Linear/Exponential” when there is a “Dimensional Relationship” Transform the equation of a Power Model by using the Logarithmic Function y A xB B B log y log A log x x log y log A B log x Y-intercept Slope An linear relationship now exist between log y and log x EX: USE THE TABLE TO ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS a) Perform both a LinReg and ExpReg test on Weight vs Length. Explain if either a linear or exponential regression would be a good model b) Perform a Power Regr. and determine whether if it would fit the data c) Make a scatterplot for Log(x) vs Log(y). Find the LSRL a) Linear and Exponential Regression: Linear Regression Plot y 25.202 x 299.0423 Length (cm) Length (cm) Residual Residual LOG (Weight) Weight (lbs) Create a scatter plot of Log(y) vs (x) For an exponential regression Residual Plot reveals a curved pattern. This suggest that a linear model would be a poor model The Residual Plot for an exponential regression also reveals a curved pattern. This suggest that this model would be a poor model b) Power Regression: Log (Weight) Create a scatter plot of Log(y) vs Log(x) for an power regression The graph shows a very strong linear correlation Residual Log (Length) The residual plot doesn’t Show any pattern. Therefore A power regression is a good model d) Rewrite the equation with “Predicted Weight” as a function of “Length” y 0.0126067399 x 3.049417866 Predicted 0.0126067399 Length 3.049417866 Weight e) Use your equation from (d) to predict the weight of a rockfish that is 15 cm long Weight 0.0126067399 15 Weight 48.64g 3.049417866 EX: A SCATTER PLOT SHOWING THE REACTION TIME OF A CERTAIN CHEMICAL WITH THE LSRL IS SHOWN: Q: Does a linear model fit these data? Justify your answer: Although r2 is pretty high, the residual plot shows a curved pattern so a straight line is not necessarily the best model for this data A SCATTERPLOT WITH AN EXPONENTIAL AND POWER REGRESSION IS DISPLAYED. WHICH IS A BETTER REGRESSION. EXPLAIN WHY. (3 MARKS) Exponential Regression Power Regression The Exponential Regression would be a better model because: Points on the scatterplot are closer to the LSRL Although the residual plot isn’t perfect, the residuals are smaller The correlations is also better. r = 0.990 and r2 = 0.954 Homework: