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Stevan Sijan Stojic HW

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Stevan Sijan Stojic
31301654@fsv.cuni.cz
Computational Homework
Problem 1
1
Stevan Sijan Stojic
31301654@fsv.cuni.cz
2
Stevan Sijan Stojic
31301654@fsv.cuni.cz
Problem 2
a) By looking at the two strip bonds, we can see the spot rates for year 1 and 2. Therefore,
we will use interest rate 7% for the first year, and 8% for the second year. Furthermore,
the coupon payments will be $9 ($100*0.09). The price of the bond is:
𝑃𝑉(π‘π‘œπ‘›π‘‘) =
9
9
100
+
+
= $101.86
2
1.07 1.08
1.082
b) The yield to maturity is the average rate of return that is earned if the bond is purchased
at current market price, and it is held to maturity. As we already know the price of the
bond, we can easily find the yield to maturity:
$101.86 =
9
9
100
+
+
2
1 + 𝑦 (1 + 𝑦)
(1 + 𝑦)2
𝑦 = 7.95
Yield to maturity is 7.95.
c) We need to find the next year forward rate (f2). We can use the yields from the zerocoupon bonds to find it, because we know that (1.07*f2) = (1.08) ^2. Therefore:
π‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘€π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘‘ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ =
1.082
= 9.01%
1.07
Now we will use the forward rate in order to find the market expectation of the bond
price:
π΅π‘œπ‘›π‘‘ π‘ƒπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘’ =
109
= $99.99 ~ $100
1.0901
d) Since there is a liquidity premium of 1%, the forward rate will be changed. This is
calculated by simply subtracting 1 from the forward rate:
π‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘€π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘‘ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ = 9.01% − 1% = 8.01%
And now we find the new expected bond price with the 8.01% forward rate:
π΅π‘œπ‘›π‘‘ π‘ƒπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘’ =
109
= $100.92
1.0801
If we believe in liquidity preference then our bond price would be $100.92.
3
Stevan Sijan Stojic
31301654@fsv.cuni.cz
Problem 3
a) The DuPont analysis is used to analyze fundamental performance of a company. It is
basically an extended version of the ROE formula, that helps to identify the strengths
and weaknesses of a firm. Thus, it is very useful to investors. The DuPont formula is:
π·π‘’π‘ƒπ‘œπ‘›π‘‘ = π‘‡π‘Žπ‘₯ π΅π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘’π‘› ∗ πΌπ‘›π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘ π‘‘ π΅π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘’π‘› ∗ 𝐸𝐡𝐼𝑇 π‘€π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘”π‘–π‘› ∗ 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑑 π‘‡π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘›π‘œπ‘£π‘’π‘Ÿ ∗ πΏπ‘’π‘£π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘”π‘’ π‘…π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œ
where:
π‘‡π‘Žπ‘₯ π΅π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘’π‘› π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œ =
𝑁𝑒𝑑 π‘–π‘›π‘π‘œπ‘šπ‘’
$475
=
= 0.64
π‘ƒπ‘Ÿπ‘’π‘‘π‘Žπ‘₯ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘“π‘–π‘‘ $740
πΌπ‘›π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘ π‘‘ π΅π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘’π‘› π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œ =
𝐸𝐡𝐼𝑇 π‘€π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘”π‘–π‘› =
𝐸𝐡𝐼𝑇
$760
=
= 0.16
𝑅𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑒 $4,750
π‘‡π‘œπ‘‘π‘Žπ‘™ 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑑 π‘‡π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘›π‘œπ‘£π‘’π‘Ÿ =
πΏπ‘’π‘£π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘”π‘’ π‘…π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œ =
π‘ƒπ‘Ÿπ‘’π‘‘π‘Žπ‘₯ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘“π‘–π‘‘ $740
=
= 0.97
𝐸𝐡𝐼𝑇
$760
𝑅𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑒
$4,750
=
= 1.61
π‘‡π‘œπ‘‘π‘Žπ‘™ π‘Žπ‘ π‘ π‘’π‘‘π‘  $2,950
π‘‡π‘œπ‘‘π‘Žπ‘™ π‘Žπ‘ π‘ π‘’π‘‘π‘  $2,950
=
= 1.4
π‘‡π‘œπ‘‘π‘Žπ‘™ π‘’π‘žπ‘’π‘–π‘‘π‘¦ $2,100
Now DuPont can be calculated:
𝑅𝑂𝐸 = 0.64 ∗ 0.97 ∗ 0.16 ∗ 1.61 ∗ 1.4 = 0.226 = 22.6%
In this case ToyCorp has a pretty low ROE, and this is primarily due to the low EBIT margin.
This is also reflected in the balance sheet where COGS is $2,400 million, which is 50% of
the total revenue. Furthermore, when the other expenses are added the remaining revenue
is only $760 million. So, by using the DuPont analysis this company can see that they have
to lower their expenses if they want to increase the return for their shareholders.
b) ROE or return on equity, shows the profitability of a company in relation to its
stockholders’ equity. The calculation is as follows, and it will give the same result as the
DuPont ROE:
𝑅𝑂𝐸 =
𝑁𝑒𝑑 π‘–π‘›π‘π‘œπ‘šπ‘’
$475
=
= 0.226
π‘†β„Žπ‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘’β„Žπ‘œπ‘™π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿ π‘’π‘žπ‘’π‘–π‘‘π‘¦ $2,100
4
Stevan Sijan Stojic
31301654@fsv.cuni.cz
c) The formula for sustainable growth rate is:
𝑆𝐺𝑅 = π‘…π‘’π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘› π‘œπ‘› πΈπ‘žπ‘’π‘–π‘‘π‘¦ ∗ (1 − π‘ƒπ‘Žπ‘¦π‘œπ‘’π‘‘ π‘…π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œ)
We already know ROE, and we need the payout ratio, which can be calculated:
𝑅𝑂𝐸 =
𝑁𝑒𝑑 π‘–π‘›π‘π‘œπ‘šπ‘’
$510
=
= 0.23 = 23%
π‘†β„Žπ‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘’β„Žπ‘œπ‘™π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿ π‘’π‘žπ‘’π‘–π‘‘π‘¦ $2,200
Now the payout ratio should be calculated
π‘ƒπ‘Žπ‘¦π‘œπ‘’π‘‘ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œ =
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑
0.6
=
= 0.306
πΈπ‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘›π‘–π‘›π‘”π‘  π‘π‘’π‘Ÿ π‘ β„Žπ‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘’ 1.96
The sustainable growth rate will be:
𝑆𝐺𝑅 = 0.23 ∗ (1 − 0.306) = 0.15962 = 15.96%
This means that ToyCorp will grow by 15.96% annually with its current revenue, without
financing growth with additional equity or debt.
Problem 4
a) From the setup we know that g is 25%, and k is 20%. First off, we will need to calculate
the price of dividends in the next three years:
𝐷𝐼𝑉1 = $1 ∗ 1.25 = $1.25
𝐷𝐼𝑉2 = $1.25 ∗ 1.25 = $1.5625
𝐷𝐼𝑉3 = $1.5625 ∗ 1.25 = $1.953125
The intrinsic value is obtained by adding up the present value of all the future cash flow
from the dividends, and the present value of the price when the stock is sold. So:
𝑃𝑉(𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠) =
$1.25 $1.5625 $1.953125
+
+
= $3.25
1.2
1.22
1.23
After the first three years, we will have a constant growth of 5%, thus we can use the
constant growth DDM to find the present value of the stock when it is sold. After finding
the price (Div4=P4) we will discount it with k=20%
𝑃𝑉(π‘ π‘‘π‘œπ‘π‘˜ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘’) =
𝐷𝑖𝑣4
$1.953125 ∗ (1.05)
=
= $7.19
3
(π‘˜ − 𝑔) ∗ (1 + π‘˜)
(0.2 − 0.05) ∗ (1.2)3
The Intrinsic value of the stock will be
𝑉0 = $3.25 + $7.19 = $11.16
5
Stevan Sijan Stojic
31301654@fsv.cuni.cz
b) Since market price is equal to the intrinsic value, we can easily calculate the expected
dividend yield with its formula:
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 =
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑(𝐷𝐼𝑉1)
$1.25
=
= 0.112 = 11.2%
πΆπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘’π‘›π‘‘ π‘šπ‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘˜π‘’π‘‘ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘’(𝑉0) $11.16
c) The dividend growth model can be used to find the price one year from now:
𝐷1 + 𝑃1
𝑉0 =
1+𝐾
$11.86 =
$1.25 + 𝑃1
= 𝑃1 = $12.14
1 + 0.2
So, the share price one year from now will be $12.14. Now the capital gain needs to be
calculated, so that it can be compared to the dividend yield and the market capitalization
rate:
πΆπ‘Žπ‘π‘–π‘‘π‘Žπ‘™ π‘”π‘Žπ‘–π‘› =
𝐸(𝑃1) − 𝑃0 $12.14 − $11.16
=
= 8.79%
𝑃0
$11.16
The capital gain of 8.79% is not consistent with the dividend yield or the market
capitalization rate.
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