The Role of Electricity in a
Sustainable Energy System
UNECE Energy Week
Samuel Alt
Political Communication Energy Sector
Page 1 November
October
2011
Geneva,
17th
2011
Energy Sector
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World primary energy demand strongly increasing
Source: IEA WEO 2011 Figure 2.6 World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario
Page 2
October 2011
Energy Sector
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Clean electrification –
The key to a sustainable energy system
Electrification growing worldwide
World
Primary energy
consumption
Power consumption
+ 0.9% p.a.
+ 2.8% p.a.
2008
2035
2008
2035
European Community (EU 27)
Primary energy
consumption
- 0.1% p.a.
2008
Page 3
2035
October 2011
Power consumption
+ 0.8% p.a.
2008
Electricity is the
most efficient,
cleanest and most
reliable energy
source
Through conversion
into electricity,
renewable energies
can be used directly
and universally
2035
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On the way to a sustainable energy system
19th century
20th century
Electrification
of society: Age of coal
Large-scale generation
of electrical energy with
fossil fuels
Energy system not sustainable
Start of 21st century
End of 21st century
Megatrends force process
of rethinking
The new power age:
Electricity becomes
the form of energy
Sustainable energy system
Generation and load closely
coordinated
Generation follows load
Increasingly decentralized,
fluctuating power
generation
Load follows generation
with intelligent grids
Fossil fuels,
hydro power
Fossil fuels,
hydro power,
nuclear power
Fossil fuels,
hydro power, nuclear power,
biomass, wind, solar
Renewable energies,
“clean” coal, gas,
nuclear power
No environmental concerns
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October 2011
Environmental awareness
Energy Sector
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Energy demand –
Doubling the installed capacity by 2030
Development of world power plant capacity within the next 20 years
9,670
in GW
1%
20%
17%
5,328
7%
6%
5% 2%
20%
7%
8%
15%
Others
Renewables (w/o Hydro, incl. Ocean)
Hydro (w/o Ocean)
Nuclear Power Plant
Single Cycle Power Plant
Combined Cycle Power Plant
20%
(incl. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle )
Steam Power Plant
28%
43%
Installed capacity
2010
Installed capacity
2030
Power generation capacity built in > 100 years to double within two decades
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October 2011
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System shift –
Growing electrification is leading to a power matrix
Page 6
October 2011
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Different challenges – Worldwide examples
Country-specific challenges
Denmark: Strive for clean power –
42% wind-power by 2020,
100% by 2050
India: “Power-for-all” program – get
power supply to fuel economic
growth (+350 GW installed capacity
by 2020, of it +215 GW from coal)
Affordable energy
Climate protection
USA: Priority on affordable energy –
even at the cost of increased GHG
emissions (average retail electricity
price <10 USct/kWh)
China: Nuclear power expansion
ongoing (83 GW installed capacity by
2020 up from 12 GW today), but
review of security standards
Resource efficiency
Page 7
Reliable
power supplies
October 2011
Sweden: Today 46% Hydro, further
extension of new Renewables
planned
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Different challenges require individual solutions
Country-specific challenges
Innovative technologies
Energy mix in power generation
Affordable energy
Climate protection
Countryspecific
solutions
Resource efficiency
Page 8
Reliable
power supplies
October 2011
Large power plants
Grids
Energy Sector
Distributed
power generation
Energy storage and
intermittency
management
© Siemens AG 2011
Innovations for a sustainable energy system need
the right framework conditions
Three key policy factors for the successful integration
of sustainable energy technologies
TechnologyTechnologieorientierte base
orientated
Grundlage (Push)
(Push)
Demand-orientated
Bedarfsorientierte
base
Grundlage
(Pull) (Pull)
Public
Gesetzliche
acceptance
Grundlage und Akzeptanz
R&D funding for key
energy technologies
Innovation-based market
design and incentive
schemes
Open dialogue and early
involvement of public
Public funding stimulus
for large scale
demonstration projects
Fair risk sharing between
suppliers, operators and
society
Long-term EU- and
national legislation for
higher planning security
Cooperation between
politics, industry and nongovernment organizations
Example:
Example:
Example:
Renewable Energy, Energy
Storage Technologies
High-voltage direct current
transmission (HVDC)
Renewable Energy, Carbon
Capture and Storage
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October 2011
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Backup
Page 10
October 2011
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Different challenges –
Example: Shift in Germany’s energy policy
Goals of the adopted German energy concept
Target fixed: 55% CO2 reduction by 2030*.
Share of renewable energies in the primary energy consumption > 50% by 2050
Doubling of the share of renewable energies in the energy mix to 35% by 2020
Comprehensive, accelerated grid development (DENA II: 4,540 km necessary by 2020)
25% reduction of the primary energy consumption by 2050
Nuclear power exit: 17 nuclear power plants (21GW) to be shut down by 2022
Technical answers to accomplish German energy policy
+ Gas (Irsching 4 CCPP – most efficient and most flexible fossil power plant worldwide)
+ Wind (High efficient wind turbines SWT6-DD)
+ Grid (High efficient power transmission with HVDC)
* CO2 target for 2050 is 80%-95% reduction on the basis of the emissions in 1990. By 2010, reductions reached ca. 24.3%
Share of renewable energies in 2010: 16.8%
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October 2011
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Example: Challenges of the energy transition in
Germany
Facts:
The energy transition is technically feasible
Germany is a show-case and can become role model for other countries
Energiewende has broad political and societal support but requires large investments
Prerequisits:
Large power utilities investing in the relevant infrastructures
Large scale power generations reaching the required efficiency
Cost reduction of renewable electricity generation
Competitiveness of the German industrial base through an optimized energy mix
Investments security for the deployment of reserve capacity, storage facility and grid
expansion
Planning security through fast approval and social acceptance
Better coordinated decisions with EU Member States
Page 12
11. Oktober 2011
Dr. Michael Süß
© Siemens AG
Energy mix for a sustainable supply security in Europe
Offshore Windpower
Gas
Solar
Page 13
October 2011
Energy Sector
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Trends in power generation –
Two possible scenarios
Ocean
World power generation
(in 1000 TWh)
Biomass, Waste
1%
17%
Geothermal
4%
40%
Solar CSP
6%
Wind
Onshore
+2.8% p.a.
11%
Solar PV
Wind
Offshore
36.7
13%
Bright Green Scenario
assumptions:
21%
Cost-cuts in renewables
35.7
13–17%
17%
Renewables
15%
Hydro
14%
Nuclear
22%
Gas
3%
Oil
30%
Coal
15%
CAGR
+9.6 %
14%
21.0
4%
15%
Energy storage available
Expansion of transmission
grids
Gas to compensate for
intermittency of renewables
21%
13%
3%
21%
58%
5%
68%
34%
42%
2010
2030
Base Case
34–30%
2030
Bright Green Scenario
Source: Siemens
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October 2011
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Disclaimer
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October 2011
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