Current Trends in Renewable Energy Markets
1 Regulatory changes of Countries
2 Market Trends in Renewables Technologies
3 “Energiewende“ in Germany
Confidential / © Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
Page 1
April 2012
E ST MC
Current Trends in Renewable Energy Markets
1 Regulatory changes of Countries
 Negative impacts of recent policy changes in many regions, e.g. USA, Spain and Germany
 Less willingness to afford renewables investment
 Improving competitiveness of RES technologies
 Positive impacts in few countries, e.g. Japan (PV)
 New trend: oil-offsetting  driven by economic reasons rather than environmentally-driven CO2
reduction targets
2 Market Trends in Renewables Technologies
3 “Energiewende“ in Germany
Confidential / © Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
Page 2
April 2012
E ST MC
Main Renewable Policy Changes 2012:
Many subsidy cuts but also positive news in Japan, Brazil,
Mexico, Poland and Ukraine
Country
Technology
Market 2012-14*
in GW % World
6.3
Selected News,
as of 15.05
Regulatory Change
Impact
1.8%  Congress ends Renewable-energy subsidies
 Limiting of Renewable energy plants in disucssion
Spain
Renew.
USA
Wind
India
PV
Wind On
2.2
7.1
3.2%  Solar subsidy cuts of as much as 33%
5.7%  End of tax break for wind-power projects
Greece
PV
0.9
1.3%  Reduction of solar-power subsidies by as much as 16% after installed capacity tripled 2011
UK
PV
1.3
1.8%  Subsidy Cuts for small-scale solar-power projects of as much as 55 percent from April
 Electricity-Market-Law to boost Low-Carbon Plants (financing for Offshore plants)
Germany PV
11.5
19.2
1
-
13.0%  Expiration of U.S. tax credits for Renewables expected – high uncertainty
15.5%  Solar subsidy cuts of 29% starting April 1 planned – renegotiation of bill, installation „rally“?
-
+
Portugal
Renew.
0.7
0.2%  Portugal suspends awarding of licences of all new generation capacity, particularly renewable
Japan
PV
Wind On
5.3
1.6
7.7%  Deregulation plans to boost use of clean energy
1.3%  Introduce preferential rates for Renewable energy in July (PV: ~52-, Wind: ~31 US cent/kWh)
Italy
PV
8.8
12.8%  New Solar Bill planned: 100 million-euro limit on adding to subsidies each half year, tariff cuts
of about 36 percent and lower spending cap  cuts likely to start from October
Canada
PV
Wind
1.8
4.7
2.6%  Ontario cuts FITs for solar power by 20% and 15% for wind
3.8%
-
Brazil
PV
Wind
0.2
6.8
0.2%  Draft regulation to support Solar: 80% discount on fees related to use of electricity distribution
5.4%
& transmission infrastructure for plants online before end 2017 (50% after 10 years operation)
 A-5 power tender in August opened for Wind
+
Mexico
Renew.
2.1
0.6%  Plans to auction power from $8 billion of clean-energy plants (4,000 megawatts small scale)
China
PV
Poland
Renew.
1.5
0.4%  Changes on Renewable law proposal in favor for renewables (guaranteed price, secured
subsidies for current & planned wind farms for 15 years after commissioning)
+
+
Ukraine
PV
0.6
0.9%  Europe’s Best Solar Incentives Propel Growth of Solar in Ukraine (FiT of 46 ct€/kWh for utilityscale solar projects, fixed until 2030)
10.1
14.6%  China Reduces Solar Subsidy on Declining Costs of Components
* cumulated market based on MEP figures
note: Renewables = Solar + Wind + Hydro (incl. Ocean)
Page 3
April 2012
-
+
Confidential / © Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
E ST MC
Oil exports could be increased by 250 MM bbl in 2030 based
on increased share of Renewables in power generation
1
Saudi Arabia: Development of oil exports vs. own consumption1)
MM bbl
4700
+34%
4700
Increasing power generation from
nuclear and renewables and efficiency
improvement of existing power plants
can increase 2030 exports by 35%
(compared to BAU scenario)
1500
(32%)
3500
Business
as usual
2044
(43%)
Export
250
844
(18%)
+35%
250
44
300
(6%)
Own consumption
in power generation
2356
(50%)
Own consumption
other sectors
2800
(80%)
2356
(50%)
240
(7%)
460
(13%)
Oil
Production
2009
Oil
Production
2030
Oil saved by
nuclear
Oil saved by
Renewables
1) BAU scenario from Chatham House - Glada Lahn and Paul Stevens - Burning Oil to Keep Cool (Dec. 2011)
Page 4
April 2012
E ST MC
Oil saved by
efficiency
improvement
Oil
Production
2030
Confidential / © Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
Current Trends in Renewable Energy Markets
1 Regulatory changes of Countries
2 Market Trends in Renewables Technologies
 PV: massive price declines  increased competitiveness  CSP falls behind
 Wind Onshore: flat market development except USA (decline due to PTC expiration)
 Wind Offshore: at the verge – do we really want to afford increased investment cost?
3 „Energiewende“ in Germany
Confidential / © Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
Page 5
April 2012
E ST MC
Current Trends in Renewable Energy Markets
1 Regulatory changes of Countries
2 Market Trends in Renewables Technologies
3 „Energiewende“ in Germany
 Topic of last year: Opportunity for gas?  But: Operation of existing coal-fired power plants
 Topic of today: Grid expansion  Master plan proposed
 Under discussion: How to secure electricity supply
 Utilize existing de-activated fleet for security of supply
 PV: Reduction of subsidies (FIT) to moderate booming market
 Wind Offshore: Delays, increased costs
Confidential / © Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
Page 6
April 2012
E ST MC
Current Trends in Renewable Energy Markets
1 Regulatory changes of Countries
 Negative impacts of recent policy changes in many regions, e.g. USA, Spain and Germany
 Less willingness to afford renewables investment
 Improving competitiveness of RES technologies
 Positive impacts in few countries, e.g. Japan (PV)
 New trend: oil-offsetting  driven by economic reasons rather than environmentally-driven CO2
reduction targets
2 Market Trends in Renewables Technologies
 PV: massive price declines  increased competitiveness  CSP falls behind
 Wind Onshore: flat market development except USA (decline due to PTC expiration)
 Wind Offshore: at the verge – do we really want to afford increased investment cost?
3 „Energiewende“ in Germany
 Topic of last year: Opportunity for gas?  But: Operation of existing coal-fired power plants
 Topic of today: Grid expansion  Master plan proposed
 Under discussion: How to secure electricity supply
 Utilize existing de-activated fleet for security of supply
 PV: Reduction of subsidies (FIT) to moderate booming market
 Wind Offshore: Delays, increased costs
Confidential / © Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
Page 7
April 2012
E ST MC