CLIMATE DIPLOMACY DAY, 2015
ROAD TO PARIS
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE IN GHAHA
WASCAL CSIR Office Complex, Accra Ghana
17 June 2015 - 10:00 to 13:00
DR EMMANUEL TACHIE-OBENG
Climate Change Unit,
Ghana Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
LIST OF CONTENT
− Ghana as a party to UNFCCC
− Historical and projected climate
− Ghana’s Levels of GHG emissions
− Climate Change impact
− Climate Change Response
− Opportunity for emission reduction
− International Negotiations and
Ghana's Preparation to Paris
GHANA AS A PARTY TO UNFCCC
‒ Ghana joined the global community by signing the
UNFCCC in June 1992 in Rio de Janeiro.
‒ Ghana ratified the Convention on 6 September 1995
‒ The Convention entered into force specifically for
Ghana on 5 December 1995
‒ The Kyoto Protocol was opened for signature in March
1998
‒ Ghana also ratified the Kyoto Protocol on 26
November 2002 by Parliament and deposited the
instruments for ratification in New York in March 2003
‒ The Kyoto Protocol globally entered into force on
17 February 2005
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
‒Warming of about 1°C (0.3°C per decade) over past 3 decade have been recorded in Ghana
‒ Warming in Tmin (hot nights) is stronger in the Savanna zone (SZ)
‒ Highest warming coincided with the warmest portion (dry season) of the climatology
‒ Highest of about 2.1°C (0.7°C per decade) in March has already been on observed in the
Transitional zone (TZ)
‒ Projected days with Tmax>40°C threshold would reach 1 day in TZ and as high as 12 days
per month in SZ by 2050 from a control of 1 day in SZ and almost at zero in TZ
Climatology/°C
Change in Average Temperature
per decade/°C
Month
Wa
Wenchi
Tmax
Tmin
January
34.7
19.8
32.9
February
36.5
22.3
March
37.2
April
Wenchi
Tmax
Tmin
Tmax
Tmin
20.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.1
34.5
21.8
0.2
0.3
0.7
0.1
22.4
34.2
22.5
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.2
36.0
24.7
32.8
22.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
May
33.8
23.8
31.4
22.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
June
31.6
22.9
29.8
21.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
July
30.0
22.0
28.3
21.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
August
29.6
21.8
28.1
21.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.1
September
30.5
21.7
28.9
21.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
October
32.8
22.0
29.9
21.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
November
34.6
21.0
30.9
21.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
December
34.3
19.5
31.2
21.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
33.5
22.0
31.1
21.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.2
Annual mean
27.7
Tmax Tmin
Wa
26.2
0.3
0.3
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
TEMPERATURE
Projected scenarios have indicated Northern Ghana, Transitional zone, East Coast, South Western
parts of the country could be warmest
HISTORICAL VARIABILITY OF CLIMATE
RAINFALL – SAVANNA ZONE
‒ Cycle of annual rainfall variability pattern with
a dry period early 1950s, wet period in 1960s,
then another dry period in 1970s and 1980s
‒ Recovery of the rainfall from 1990 to 2000s
but has been less than 1960s averages
- Recovery is more significant in the North
‒ General decline in rainfall from 1971 to 2000s
with observed changes in distribution patterns
‒ Erratic rainfall increase by 4.3 mm (3.8%)
and 17.5 mm (12.4% ) during May and June
per decade
‒ Significant increase of 21 mm (10.7%) in
total rainfall in August per decade
‒High reduction in rainfall in dry season for
the past 3 decades:
• November 6.8 mm (15.8%) -early cessation of
rains) per decade and
• Shortened season observed
HISTORICAL OBSERVATION IN CLIMATE
RAINFALL - TRANSITIONAL ZONE
‒ Significant decrease in nR>2 mm and nR>10 mm
in March of 15.4% and 10%
‒Erratic rainfall especially in April, May and June
‒ Decline total rainfall at the tail end of the major
season in July (12.5%)
‒ Early cessation of rains in October (9.6%)
‒ Shortening of both major and minor cropping
seasons
‒ Increase in frequency of nR>2 mm (14%) in
August which tend to coincide with the
harvesting period for the major season
PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE – RAINFALL
Uncertain rainfall scenarios into the future
LOW LEVELS OF GHG EMISSIONS WITH POTENTIAL TO GROW
CONSIDERING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRAJECTORY
Sectors & Sub-sectors
1990
1. All Energy (combustion & fugitive)
Emissions MtCO2e
2000 2010 2011
% Change
2012 1990- 2000- 20112011
2011
2012
3.5
5.5
11.3
11.6
13.5
233.0
110.3
15.9
(1.A1,A2&A5) Stationery energy
combustion
2.0
2.7
6.5
6.2
7.0
206.5
127.8
13.3
(1.A5) Transport
1.5
2.8
4.8
5.4
6.5
268.3
92.5
19.4
(1.B) Fugitive emission
0.0
0.003 0.001 0.001
0.002
50.0
-81.2 156.5
2. Industrial Process & Product Use
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.47
-46.0
-43.2
6.5
3. AFOLU
8.6
7.7
14.7
14.0
15.2
240.6
94.0
1.6
1.7
2.20
3.0
-3.0
-4.00
194.2
63.6
91.9
82.5
12.0
7.7
62.9
27.4
8.9
10.3
4.52
18.5
43.3
0.6
84.7
4.8
6.3
3.2
33.7
115.1
87.5
10.0
3A Livestock
3B Land
3C. Aggregated and Non-CO2
emissions
4. Waste
Total emissions (excluding AFOLU)
Total net emissions (including AFOLU)
9.9
1.3
5.6
9.52
2.3
8.6
16.5
1.9 14.08
2.8
10.0
4.2
1.3
15.8 10.0
14.2
16.3
30.4
2.8
30.6
1.8
PROJECTED FUTURE EMISSIONS BY 2040
140
125.14
120
Emissions (MtCO2e)
100
80
57.06
60
48.51
40
28.75
20
14.11
2.03
0
1995
21.27
14.11
2000
7.52
2005
2010
2015
BAU emission scenario
2020
2025
2030
Mitigation scenario
2035
2040
2045
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
SENSITIVE SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY
Impacts and vulnerabilities in Ghana is generally influenced by geographical
spread, gender, poverty levels, livelihoods, access to information etc.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
SENSITIVE SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY
COCOA SECTOR
INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT & COORDINATION
RESPONSE TO CC –How?
Seeks to protect its current levels of economic growth;
Wary of economic impacts of both climate change;
resulting in a focus on “climate resilience”.
Mitigation is not a priority, but synergy will help to
reduce adaptation cost
Sustainable Development and adaptation
are
CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE – KEY POLICIES
Ghana Shared Growth Development Agenda (GSGDAI & II)
- Primary Development Planning Framework
Ample references to climate change
-Considers Climate change as development issue
Serves as the umbrella policy for the
-Ghana’s National Climate Change Policy (NCCP)
NCCP vision:
“to ensure a climate-resilient and climate compatible
economy while achieving SD through equitable lowcarbon economic growth for Ghana”
FOCUS OF NCCP
Objectives: Effective adaptation, social development
and mitigation
Seven systemic pillars: (a) governance and
coordination; (b) capacity building,
(c) science, technology and innovation, (d) finance,
(e) international cooperation
(f) Information, communication and education and
(g) monitoring and reporting
OTHERS MAINSTREAMING AND ADAPTATION
• A National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
• Technology Needs Assessment (Technology Action Plan) –
focus on adaptation technologies
• Ghana Plan of Action for Disaster Risk Reduction and
Climate Change Adaptation (2011–2015) by NADMO.
• National Development Planning System Act (Act 480) to
guide mainstreaming of climate change to national,
sector and district medium term plans.
• Local Government Act (Act 462) guides local governments
(Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies) in
budgeting for climate change activities in their annual
budgets.
CLIMATE CHANGE FINANCE
• Climate finance in Ghana is mainly
project/programme based and dominated by
donor funding.
• Institutional for mobilizing finance - NIE vrs
MIE for GCF/AF
• National level funding – “green fund”????
Ministry of Finance
CROSS-SECTION OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR EMISSION
REDUCTIONS
NEGOTIATIONS AND PREPARION TO COP21 IN PARIS
- INDC?
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
‒ Global effort to put the world on a track towards a low-carbon,
climate-resilient future;
‒ The international community has sets out to negotiate in Paris and
come out with a global legally binding climate pact by 2015 through
the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced
Action (ADP) - As a new international climate agreement (2015
Agreement)
‒ Where a single country (Party) in the world is expected to take certain
level of commitment that will be originally determined by the Party as
a contribution (national circumstances/ development Agenda);
‒ It is likely to come to force in 2020 after individual countries ratify the
agreement at the national level;
THE PROCESS OF GHANA’S INDC PREPARATION
Pre COP 21
02
03
2015
04
05
06
05
07
07
08
09
Concept Note & National Agenda
Stakeholder meetings
Core and Working Group Meetings
Brainstorming
INDC Kick-off
Workshop
Inception
report
Mid-term
report
Final
report
Core Group Reviews
EOI & Recruitment of Consultants
Capacity Building and Awareness Creation Campaign
Consultation – Technical, Political & Others
National Processes (Review by Line Ministries, Carbinet
Endorsement and Disclosure)
THE PROCESS OF GHANA’S INDC PREPARATION
Post COP 21
11
12
Outcome of
COP 21
2016
04
12
2017
12
2018
2019
12
Review of
Ghana’s INDC
Ratification
of the
Agreement
Capacity Building of National
Institution for Implementation of
Mitigation and Adaptation Actions
Streamline Technical Roles for
MRV of the Contribution Actions
CHALLENGES
‒Finance (Local and Donor)
‒Capacity (Enhancement, Retention)
‒Sensitization and awareness creation
‒Mobilization of the private sector
‒Mainstreaming (budget, etc.,)
‒Research
Thank you for your
attention!
etachieobeng@gmail.com
+233 -20 8196879 / -24 0973625