FY13 Budget and Caseload
Update
Fiscal Committee
December 3, 2012
FY13 Caseload Overview
2

Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account full year forecast is
projecting a surplus of $11.8M which is approximately $200K more
than last month’s projected surplus of $11.6M. The increase in surplus
is driven by adjusted Infant/Toddler rate increase projections
decreasing from $1.1M to $900K resulting from actual billing data.
The forecast includes growth for the number of providers reaching
QRIS Level 2 or above in subsequent months. The forecast includes
Summer Only care for 779 children for June 2013. After reducing the
current surplus by the forecasted DTA deficit ($6.7M), and adding the
anticipated DCF surplus, the overall surplus in the caseload accounts
is approximately $7.0M.

DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted deficit has increased to
$6.7M, an increase of $3.2M. The change is driven by a significant
increase in caseload (approximately 700). October caseload forecast
projected a 7% decrease from September to October for School Age
children and a 2% increase for Toddlers. Actuals reported reflect a 1%
decrease for School Age, a 6% swing, and 5% increase for Toddlers, a
2% variance. Infant and Preschool caseload percentage change was
flat to forecast. The impact has been forecasted for the remaining 8
months of the fiscal year.

Supportive: The projected surplus of $600K increased to a surplus of
$1.9M. Contract slots continue to remain open impacting the change
in forecast. Ongoing discussions with DCF indicate an effort to fill
open slots.
FY13 Caseload Overview Summary
As of October 2012
FY2013
Caseload
Spending
Income Eligible
Contract/Flex
Voucher
Grants
DTA
Voucher
Supportive
Contract/Flex
Voucher
Grants
FY2013 Budget
Forecast
$
$
$
$
134,436,467
88,414,709
9,019,276
231,870,452
$
$
$
$
125,370,240
85,661,580
9,019,276
220,051,097
$
$
$
$
9,066,227
2,753,129
11,819,355
$
125,495,740
$
132,243,742
$
(6,748,002)
$
74,710,829
$
87,795
$
600,000
$
75,398,623
$ 427,693,462
$
$
$
$
$
1,920,046
12,205
1,932,252
7,003,605
$
76,630,875
$
100,000
$
600,000
$
77,330,875
Total $ 434,697,067
3
Variance
Forecast vs.
Budget
FY13 Caseload Overview Summary
FY2013 Caseload Spending September
FY2013 Budget
Forecast
Variance Forecast vs.
Budget
Income Eligible
C ontract/Flex
$
134,436,467
$
125,545,863
$
8,890,604
Voucher
$
88,414,709
$
85,644,765
$
2,769,944
Grants
$
9,019,276
$
9,019,276
$
$
231,870,452
$
220,209,904
$
11,660,548
$
125,495,740
$
129,037,458
$
(3,541,718)
C ontract/Flex
$
76,630,875
$
75,999,574
$
631,301
Voucher
$
100,000
$
135,320
$
(35,320)
Grants
$
600,000
$
600,000
$
$
77,330,875
$
76,734,894
$
595,981
$
434,697,067
$
425,982,255
$
8,714,812
-
DTA
*Voucher
Supportive
Total
4
-
FY13 Caseload Overview Summary
FY2013 Caseload Spending August 2012
FY2013 Budget
Forecast
Variance Forecast vs.
Budget
Income Eligible
C ontract/Flex
$
134,436,467
$
125,502,294
$
8,934,173
Voucher
$
88,414,709
$
86,603,751
$
1,810,958
Grants
$
9,019,276
$
9,019,276
$
$
231,870,452
$
221,125,321
$
10,745,131
$
125,495,740
$
129,038,794
$
(3,543,054)
C ontract/Flex
$
76,630,875
$
76,637,299
$
(6,424)
Voucher
$
100,000
$
148,086
$
(48,086)
Grants
$
600,000
$
600,000
$
$
77,330,875
$
77,385,385
$
$
434,697,067
$
427,549,500
$
-
DTA
*Voucher
Supportive
Total
FY2013 Caseload Spending July 2012
FY2013 Budget
Forecast
(54,510)
7,147,567
Variance Forecast vs.
Budget
Income Eligible
C ontract/Flex
$
134,436,467
$
126,063,350
$
8,373,117
Voucher
$
88,414,709
$
82,629,533
$
5,785,176
Grants
$
9,019,276
$
9,019,276
$
$
231,870,452
$
217,712,159
$
14,158,293
$
125,495,740
$
128,621,652
$
(3,125,912)
C ontract/Flex
$
76,630,875
$
77,047,992
$
(417,117)
Voucher
$
100,000
$
157,583
$
(57,583)
Grants
$
600,000
$
600,000
$
$
77,330,875
$
77,805,575
$
$
434,697,067
$
424,139,386
$
-
DTA
*Voucher
Supportive
Total
5
(474,700)
10,557,681
FY 2013 Income Eligible
(3000-4060)
Income Eligible SFY13 Forecast for October 2012
M o nt h
Jun-12
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
32,215
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
32,215
V a ria nc e
B udge t S pe nding
P la n P ro je c t io n
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t
E xpe ndit ure s
Y T D V a ria nc e
N/A
Jul-12
31,364
31,383
19
$
18,607,517
$
18,476,966
$
Aug-12
31,325
31,528
203
$
18,902,260
$
18,927,844
$
130,551
104,967
Se p-12
30,933
30,553
(380)
$
17,350,379
$
14,987,664
$
2,467,683
Oct-12
30,457
29,433
(1,024)
$
17,632,030
$
17,760,550
$
2,339,162
Nov-12
30,398
$
17,302,718
$
18,315,417
$
1,326,463
De c-12
30,237
$
16,902,323
$
17,334,440
$
894,346
Jan-13
29,950
$
17,423,935
$
18,761,622
$
(443,341)
Fe b-13
30,048
$
16,954,176
$
16,388,411
$
122,423
M ar-13
29,955
$
17,050,124
$
17,145,839
$
26,708
Apr-13
29,788
$
17,311,495
$
17,811,714
$
(473,510)
M ay-13
29,256
$
17,370,697
$
18,280,808
$
(1,383,621)
Jun-13
29,924
$
(736,248)
$
17,487,919
$
16,840,545
GRANTS
$
9,019,276
$
9,019,276
TOTAL
$
219,314,849
$
220,051,097
FY13 Appropriation
231,870,452
231,870,452
Surplus /De ficie ncy
12,555,603
11,819,355
- B lue : FY13 A c t ua l/ F o re c a s t E xpe ndit ure s
**2013 A ctuals/Fo recast include Infant/To ddler Increase P ro jectio n
- A ctual do llars represent expenditures billed and paid as o f the date the fo recast was prepared and may include late
billing.
- A dditio nal savings may be realised by parent fees.
* Spending P lan P ro jectio n is maximum o bligatio n, flex , teen and ho meless co ntracts.
* A ctual caselo ad co unt is the co unt o f services rendered fo r the repo rting mo nth. P lease no te a child co uld receive
multiple services.
* Caselo ad changes fo r a prio r repo rting mo nth is driven by late billing.
* B udgeted caselo ad assumes access is clo sed (Vo uchers) and terminatio ns will be co nsistent with histo rical trend.
6
FY 2013 DTA Related
(3000-4050)
DTA SFY13 Forecast for October 2012
M o nt h
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
V a ria nc e
Jun-12
16,920
16,920
N/A
B udge t S pe nding
P la n P ro je c t io n
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t
E xpe ndit ure s
Y T D V a ria nc e
( O rigina l S pe nding
P la n)
Jul-12
16,019
16,276
257
$
10,717,525
$
11,008,991
$
(291,466)
Aug-12
16,060
16,346
286
$
11,233,530
$
11,408,731
$
(466,667)
Sep-12
16,419
16,283
(136)
$
9,986,720
$
9,481,118
$
Oct-12
16,201
16,510
309
$
11,002,439
$
11,656,488
$
(615,114)
Nov-12
16,428
$
10,991,409
$
11,399,979
$
(1,023,684)
Dec-12
16,358
$
10,447,142
$
10,824,959
$
(1,401,501)
Jan-13
15,912
$
11,129,920
$
11,557,619
$
(1,829,200)
38,934
Feb-13
16,180
$
10,333,239
$
10,229,246
$
(1,725,207)
Mar-13
16,462
$
10,513,483
$
10,922,547
$
(2,134,272)
Apr-13
16,631
$
11,127,055
$
11,521,047
$
(2,528,264)
May-13
16,498
$
11,539,709
$
11,931,773
$
(2,920,329)
Jun-13
16,374
$
9,959,024
$
10,301,242
$
(3,262,547)
$
128,981,195
$
132,243,742
FY13 Appropriation
$
125,495,740
Surplus/Deficiency
$
TOTAL
(6,748,002)
- Blue: FY13 Actual/Forecast Expenditures
**2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase Projection
- Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast w as prepared and may include late billing.
* Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. Please note a child could receive multiple
services.
* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month is driven by late billing.
7
FY 2013 Supportive
(3000-3050)
SUPPORTIVE SFY13 Forecast for October 2012
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
V a ria nc e
Jun-12
6,010
6,010
N/A
M o nt h
B udge t
S pe nding
P la n
P ro je c t io n
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t
E xpe ndit ure s
Y T D V a ria nc e
( O rigina l
S pe nding P la n)
Jul-12
6,097
6,012
(85)
$
6,588,626
$
6,386,341
$
202,285
Aug-12
6,071
5,959
(112)
$
6,865,945
$
6,514,398
$
553,832
Se p-12
6,084
5,809
(275)
$
5,983,846
$
5,609,805
$
927,873
Oct-12
6,084
5,613
(471)
$
6,876,242
$
6,278,039
$
1,526,077
Nov-12
6,159
$
6,635,389
$
6,278,052
$
1,883,413
De c-12
6,188
$
6,321,780
$
5,999,463
$
2,205,731
Jan-13
6,172
$
6,911,188
$
6,592,898
$
2,524,021
Fe b-13
6,216
$
6,341,848
$
5,757,633
$
3,108,236
M ar-13
6,313
$
6,411,617
$
6,096,761
$
3,423,093
Apr-13
6,314
$
6,717,704
$
6,390,030
$
3,750,767
M ay-13
6,314
$
7,023,054
$
6,685,214
$
4,088,607
Jun-13
6,541
$
6,562,792
$
6,209,990
$
4,441,409
$
600,000
$
600,000
$ 79,840,032
$
75,398,623
FY13 Appropriation
$
77,330,875
Surplus /De ficie ncy
$
1,932,252
GRANTS
TOTAL
- B lue : FY13 A c t ua l/ F o re c a s t E xpe ndit ure s
**2013 A ctuals/Fo recast include Infant/To ddler Increase P ro jectio n
- A ctual do llars represent expenditures billed and paid as o f the date the fo recast was prepared and may include late
billing.
* A ctual caselo ad co unt is the co unt o f services rendered fo r the repo rting mo nth. P lease no te a child co uld receive
multiple services.
* Caselo ad changes fo r a prio r repo rting mo nth is driven by late billing.
8
FY2013 Income Eligible Total Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$240,000
$220,000
$200,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$220,051
$231,870
$202,459
$209,305
$183,427
$190,217
$164,863
$171,230
$146,966
$152,546
$129,826
$133,959
$110,313
$114,818
$73,159
$77,304
$20,000
$54,647
$57,955
$40,000
$38,908
$39,013
$60,000
$103,501
$96,282
$80,000
$19,229
$19,359
(Amount in Thousands)
$180,000
$Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Actual/Forecast
Dec
Jan
FY13 Budget
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
Gray : FY13 Appropriation (Vouchers, Contracts & Grants)
9
Feb
Total Appropriation of $231.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants and $600K Reserve for Late Billing
October 2012 Voucher Expenditures paid is $7,000,540
Actual/Forecast includes projected cost for Infant Toddler Rate Increase
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
FY2013 DTA Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$140,000
$130,000
$120,000
(Amount in Thousands)
$110,000
$100,000
$90,000
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$132,244
$125,496
$121,942
$115,805
$110,011
$104,574
$98,490
$93,744
$87,567
$83,513
$77,338
$73,459
$65,780
$62,634
$54,955
$52,468
$43,555
$41,772
$10,000
$31,899
$31,072
$20,000
$22,418
$21,354
$30,000
$11,009
$10,426
$40,000
$Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Actual/Forecast
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
Gray : FY13 Appropriation
10
Jan
Feb
FY13 Budget
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
FY2013 Supportive Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$100,000
$90,000
(Amount in Thousands)
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$75,399
$77,331
$69,139
$70,913
$62,403
$64,062
$55,963
$57,507
$49,817
$51,248
$44,009
$45,058
$37,366
$38,317
$31,317
$32,147
$24,989
$25,673
$18,661
$18,967
$13,001
$13,124
$10,000
$6,436
$6,428
$20,000
$Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Actual/Forecast
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
11
Gray : : FY13 Appropriation
Jan
Feb
FY13 Budget
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
FY12/13 IE Contract Slots - Regular and Flex
16,000.0
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
8,000.0
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
(2,000.0)
Regular
Filled
Regular
Open
Flex Filled
Flex Open
Flex Over 5%
Flex Under 5%
9/7/2011
12,279.5
2,210.5
722.0
111.0
(582.0)
693.0
10/3/2011
12,297.0
2,193.0
636.0
197.0
(518.5)
715.5
11/1/2011
12,801.5
1,637.5
640.0
214.0
(495.5)
710.5
11/29/2011
13,029.5
1,429.5
623.5
232.5
(473.0)
705.5
1/3/2012
12,937.5
1,531.5
596.5
264.0
(438.0)
701.5
1/31/2012
13,213.5
1,257.5
585.5
274.5
(437.0)
711.5
3/1/2012
13,271.5
1,194.5
579.5
279.5
(432.0)
711.5
3/30/2012
13,391.0
1,071.0
604.5
254.5
(441.5)
696.0
4/30/2012
13,388.0
1,074.0
640.5
218.5
(451.0)
669.5
5/29/2012
13,266.0
1,197.0
596.5
278.5
(426.0)
704.5
7/1/2012
13,305.0
1,447.0
513.5
345.5
(381.5)
727.0
8/1/2012
12,978.0
1,530.0
492.5
365.5
(368.5)
734.0
9/28/2012
12,434.0
2,057.0
427.0
430.5
(309.0)
739.5
10/30/2012
12,751.5
1,738.5
427.0
430.5
(303.5)
725.0
11/28/2012
12,881.5
1,608.5
426.5
218.5
(289.0)
719.5
Total Awarded Slots is 14490 and Allowable Flex Slots is 857
28 Providers representing 31 contracts are Over 5% Flex (309)
12
**No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.
Caseload Waitlist Since 9/2011
*Waiting List Category
9/29/11
Total
10/31/11
Total
11/30/11
Total
12/31/11
Total
1/31/12
Total
2/29/12
Total
3/31/12
Total
4/30/12
Total
5/31/12
Total
6/30/12
Total
8/30/12
Total
9/30/12
Total
10/31/12
Total
11/30/12
Total
Child of Foster Care
125
131
137
143
153
149
162
205
216
215
227
241
255
269
276
Child of Homeless family
139
140
144
158
181
186
201
315
342
374
410
435
460
482
517
Child of Military Personnel
48
51
50
54
56
54
57
68
69
71
71
71
79
95
101
Child of Teen Parent
152
160
174
187
195
234
247
312
343
355
380
406
427
461
483
Child w ith Special Needs
849
893
936
975
1,031
1,083
1,149
1,449
1,577
1,676
1,765
1,890
1,978
2,056
2,102
66
83
124
122
123
123
120
Continuity of Care: Prior Year Summer
Only
Continuity of Care: Aging Out
278
283
285
280
279
288
289
301
310
312
315
388
405
404
409
Continuity of Care: Approved Break in
Service
275
286
294
301
303
309
315
337
353
359
383
437
448
450
443
Continuity of Care: ARRA
127
127
126
125
125
143
137
159
162
159
160
153
151
148
146
69
65
67
73
84
86
90
118
123
134
142
168
182
171
177
Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract
5
5
5
8
8
8
10
16
17
18
19
17
20
20
23
Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral
93
98
102
100
108
112
114
184
204
226
233
245
247
255
270
Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract
20
20
20
20
20
22
21
23
23
23
23
27
31
32
32
21,281
21,742
22,711
23,638
24,581
26,009
26,946
28,818
30,564
31,958
33,370
35,264
37,113
38,268
39,376
6
14
26
347
32
144
171
482
220
518
542
538
544
Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation
General Priority
No Priority - Other Family Member
-
-
Grandparent/Guardian Families
317
321
327
329
337
31
361
461
482
631
504
616
590
561
559
Parent w ith Special Needs
473
479
496
509
531
570
551
657
681
193
734
235
253
268
279
Sibling: Contract
240
244
250
266
282
330
334
485
460
700
516
764
795
795
805
Sibling: Voucher
514
549
575
605
641
680
683
685
603
500
684
555
602
630
653
Summer only care
592
596
591
586
595
619
621
736
748
653
875
712
734
745
786
-
656
636
944
623
867
876
888
901
N/A
Grand Total
13
7/31/12
Total
* Waitlist Data as of September 2011 is reported from KinderWait
** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state.