FY13 Budget and Caseload
Update
Fiscal Committee
January 7, 2013
FY13 Caseload Overview
2

Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account full year forecast is
projecting a surplus of $12.7M which is approximately $900K more
than last month’s projected surplus of $11.8M. Voucher access
remains closed, and we are not replacing voucher children as they
leave the program. The forecast includes Summer Only care for 779
children for June 2013.

DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted deficit has decreased to
$5.97M, an decrease of $700K. The change is driven by a decrease in
caseload (approximately 400 children). The November caseload
forecast projected the following for October to November:
 a 3% increase for School Age children; we are reporting a 1%
increase, a variance of 2%.
 a 2% increase for Toddlers; we are reporting a -1% decrease for
Toddlers, a variance of 3%.
The impact has been forecasted for the remaining 7 months of the
fiscal year.

Supportive: The projected surplus of $1.9M increased to a surplus of
$2.8M. Contract slots continue to remain open impacting the change
in forecast. Ongoing discussions with DCF indicate an effort to fill
open slots.

Summary: After reducing the current surplus by the forecasted DTA
deficit ($6.0M), and adding the anticipated DCF surplus, the overall
surplus in the caseload accounts is approximately $9.5M.
FY13 Caseload Overview Summary
As of November 2012
FY2013
Caseload
Spending
Income Eligible
Contract/Flex
Voucher
Grants
DTA
Voucher
Supportive
Contract/Flex
Voucher
Grants
FY2013 Budget
Forecast
$
$
$
$
134,436,467
88,414,709
9,019,276
231,870,452
$
$
$
$
125,208,236
84,929,055
9,019,276
219,156,568
$
$
$
$
9,228,231
3,485,654
12,713,884
$
125,495,740
$
131,467,835
$
(5,972,095)
$
73,780,144
$
157,433
$
600,000
$
74,537,577
$ 425,161,980
$
$
$
$
$
2,850,731
(57,433)
2,793,298
9,535,087
$
76,630,875
$
100,000
$
600,000
$
77,330,875
Total $ 434,697,067
3
Variance
Forecast vs.
Budget
FY13 Caseload Overview Summary
FY2013 Caseload Spending October
FY2013 Budget
Variance Forecast vs.
Budget
Forecast
Income Eligible
C ontract/Flex
$
134,436,467
$
125,370,240
$
9,066,227
Voucher
$
88,414,709
$
85,661,580
$
2,753,129
Grants
$
9,019,276
$
9,019,276
$
$
231,870,452
$
220,051,097
$
11,819,355
$
125,495,740
$
132,243,742
$
(6,748,002)
C ontract/Flex
$
76,630,875
$
74,710,829
$
1,920,046
Voucher
$
100,000
$
87,795
$
12,205
Grants
$
600,000
$
600,000
$
$
77,330,875
$
75,398,623
$
1,932,252
$
434,697,067
$
427,693,462
$
7,003,605
-
DTA
*Voucher
Supportive
Total
FY2013 Caseload Spending September
FY2013 Budget
Forecast
-
Variance Forecast vs.
Budget
Income Eligible
C ontract/Flex
$
134,436,467
$
125,545,863
$
8,890,604
Voucher
$
88,414,709
$
85,644,765
$
2,769,944
Grants
$
9,019,276
$
9,019,276
$
$
231,870,452
$
220,209,904
$
11,660,548
$
125,495,740
$
129,037,458
$
(3,541,718)
C ontract/Flex
$
76,630,875
$
75,999,574
$
631,301
Voucher
$
100,000
$
135,320
$
(35,320)
Grants
$
600,000
$
600,000
$
$
77,330,875
$
76,734,894
$
595,981
$
434,697,067
$
425,982,255
$
8,714,812
-
DTA
*Voucher
Supportive
Total
4
-
FY13 Caseload Overview Summary
FY2013 Caseload Spending August 2012
FY2013 Budget
Forecast
Variance Forecast vs.
Budget
Income Eligible
C ontract/Flex
$
134,436,467
$
125,502,294
$
8,934,173
Voucher
$
88,414,709
$
86,603,751
$
1,810,958
Grants
$
9,019,276
$
9,019,276
$
$
231,870,452
$
221,125,321
$
10,745,131
$
125,495,740
$
129,038,794
$
(3,543,054)
C ontract/Flex
$
76,630,875
$
76,637,299
$
(6,424)
Voucher
$
100,000
$
148,086
$
(48,086)
Grants
$
600,000
$
600,000
$
$
77,330,875
$
77,385,385
$
$
434,697,067
$
427,549,500
$
-
DTA
*Voucher
Supportive
Total
FY2013 Caseload Spending July 2012
FY2013 Budget
Forecast
(54,510)
7,147,567
Variance Forecast vs.
Budget
Income Eligible
C ontract/Flex
$
134,436,467
$
126,063,350
$
8,373,117
Voucher
$
88,414,709
$
82,629,533
$
5,785,176
Grants
$
9,019,276
$
9,019,276
$
$
231,870,452
$
217,712,159
$
14,158,293
$
125,495,740
$
128,621,652
$
(3,125,912)
C ontract/Flex
$
76,630,875
$
77,047,992
$
(417,117)
Voucher
$
100,000
$
157,583
$
(57,583)
Grants
$
600,000
$
600,000
$
$
77,330,875
$
77,805,575
$
$
434,697,067
$
424,139,386
$
-
DTA
*Voucher
Supportive
Total
5
(474,700)
10,557,681
FY 2013 Income Eligible
(3000-4060)
Income Eligible SFY13 Forecast for November 2012
M o nt h
Jun-12
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
32,215
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
32,215
V a ria nc e
B udge t S pe nding
P la n P ro je c t io n
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t
E xpe ndit ure s
Y T D V a ria nc e
N/A
Jul-12
31,364
31,383
19
$
18,607,517
$
18,475,043
$ 18,931,315
Aug-12
31,325
31,543
218
$
18,902,260
$
18,931,315
$ 18,902,260
Se p-12
30,933
30,614
(319)
$
17,350,379
$
14,960,877
$ 21,291,763
Oct-12
30,457
29,768
(689)
$
17,632,030
$
17,691,788
$ 21,232,005
Nov-12
30,398
29,329
(1,069)
$
17,302,718
$
16,902,848
$ 21,631,875
De c-12
30,237
$
16,902,323
$
17,368,275
$ 21,165,922
Jan-13
29,950
$
17,423,935
$
18,837,504
$ 19,752,352
Fe b-13
30,048
$
16,954,176
$
16,383,759
$ 20,322,770
M ar-13
29,955
$
17,050,124
$
17,148,140
$ 20,224,753
Apr-13
29,788
$
17,311,495
$
17,791,977
$ 19,744,272
M ay-13
29,256
$
17,370,697
$
18,344,344
$ 18,770,624
Jun-13
29,924
$
17,487,919
$
17,301,421
$ 18,957,122
GRANTS
$
9,019,276
$
9,019,276
TOTAL
$
219,314,849
$
219,156,568
FY13 Appropriation
231,870,452
231,870,452
Surplus /De ficie ncy
12,555,603
12,713,884
- B lue : FY13 A c t ua l/ F o re c a s t E xpe ndit ure s
**2013 A ctuals/Fo recast include Infant/To ddler Increase P ro jectio n
- A ctual do llars represent expenditures billed and paid as o f the date the fo recast was prepared and may include late
billing.
- A dditio nal savings may be realised by parent fees.
* Spending P lan P ro jectio n is maximum o bligatio n, flex , teen and ho meless co ntracts.
* A ctual caselo ad co unt is the co unt o f services rendered fo r the repo rting mo nth. P lease no te a child co uld receive
multiple services.
* Caselo ad changes fo r a prio r repo rting mo nth is driven by late billing.
* B udgeted caselo ad assumes access is clo sed (Vo uchers) and terminatio ns will be co nsistent with histo rical trend.
6
FY 2013 DTA Related
(3000-4050)
DTA SFY13 Forecast for October 2012
M o nt h
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
V a ria nc e
Jun-12
16,920
16,920
N/A
B udge t S pe nding
P la n P ro je c t io n
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t
E xpe ndit ure s
Y T D V a ria nc e
( O rigina l S pe nding
P la n)
Jul-12
16,019
16,277
258
$
10,717,525
$
11,002,855
$
(285,330)
Aug-12
16,060
16,356
296
$
11,233,530
$
11,412,232
$
(464,032)
Sep-12
16,419
16,310
(109)
$
9,986,720
$
9,437,343
$
Oct-12
16,201
16,740
539
$
11,002,439
$
11,573,611
$
Nov-12
16,428
16,728
300
$
10,991,409
$
11,387,008
$
(881,427)
Dec-12
16,358
$
10,447,142
$
10,734,960
$
(1,169,244)
Jan-13
15,912
$
11,129,920
$
11,468,776
$
(1,508,100)
85,345
(485,827)
Feb-13
16,180
$
10,333,239
$
10,140,557
$
(1,315,419)
Mar-13
16,462
$
10,513,483
$
10,831,142
$
(1,633,078)
Apr-13
16,631
$
11,127,055
$
11,427,734
$
(1,933,757)
May-13
16,498
$
11,539,709
$
11,840,480
$
(2,234,528)
Jun-13
16,374
$
9,959,024
$
10,211,136
$
(2,486,640)
$
128,981,195
$
131,467,835
FY13 Appropriation
$
125,495,740
Surplus/Deficiency
$
TOTAL
(5,972,095)
- Blue: FY13 Actual/Forecast Expenditures
**2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase Projection
- Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast w as prepared and may include late billing.
* Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. Please note a child could receive multiple
services.
* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month is driven by late billing.
7
FY 2013 Supportive
(3000-3050)
SUPPORTIVE SFY13 Forecast for November 2012
C a s e lo a d
B udge t
A c t ua l
C a s e lo a d
V a ria nc e
Jun-12
6,010
6,010
N/A
M o nt h
B udge t
S pe nding
P la n
P ro je c t io n
2 0 13
A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t
E xpe ndit ure s
Y T D V a ria nc e
( O rigina l
S pe nding P la n)
Jul-12
6,097
6,013
(84)
$
6,588,626
$
6,393,390
$
195,237
Aug-12
6,071
5,961
(110)
$
6,865,945
$
6,519,273
$
541,908
Se p-12
6,084
5,814
(270)
$
5,983,846
$
5,610,492
$
915,262
Oct-12
6,084
5,640
(444)
$
6,876,242
$
6,285,024
$
1,506,481
Nov-12
6,159
5,508
(651)
$
6,635,389
$
6,119,334
$
2,022,536
De c-12
6,188
$
6,321,780
$
5,890,239
$
2,454,077
Jan-13
6,172
$
6,911,188
$
6,485,174
$
2,880,090
Fe b-13
6,216
$
6,341,848
$
5,663,119
$
3,558,820
M ar-13
6,313
$
6,411,617
$
5,995,764
$
3,974,673
Apr-13
6,314
$
6,717,704
$
6,285,138
$
4,407,239
M ay-13
6,314
$
7,023,054
$
6,576,511
$
4,853,783
Jun-13
6,541
$
6,562,792
$
6,114,120
$
5,302,455
$
600,000
$
600,000
$ 79,840,032
$
74,537,577
FY13 Appropriation
$
77,330,875
Surplus /De ficie ncy
$
2,793,298
GRANTS
TOTAL
- B lue : FY13 A c t ua l/ F o re c a s t E xpe ndit ure s
**2013 A ctuals/Fo recast include Infant/To ddler Increase P ro jectio n
- A ctual do llars represent expenditures billed and paid as o f the date the fo recast was prepared and may include late
billing.
* A ctual caselo ad co unt is the co unt o f services rendered fo r the repo rting mo nth. P lease no te a child co uld receive
multiple services.
* Caselo ad changes fo r a prio r repo rting mo nth is driven by late billing.
8
FY2013 Income Eligible Total Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$240,000
$220,000
$200,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$219,157
$231,870
$201,104
$209,305
$182,008
$190,217
$163,464
$171,230
$145,564
$152,546
$128,429
$133,959
$108,840
$114,818
$73,065
$77,304
$20,000
$54,622
$57,955
$40,000
$38,910
$39,013
$60,000
$101,994
$96,282
$80,000
$19,227
$19,359
(Amount in Thousands)
$180,000
$Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Actual/Forecast
Dec
Jan
FY13 Budget
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
Gray : FY13 Appropriation (Vouchers, Contracts & Grants)
9
Feb
Total Appropriation of $231.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants and $600K Reserve for Late Billing
November 2012 Voucher Expenditures paid is $6,831,420
Actual/Forecast includes projected cost for Infant Toddler Rate Increase
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
FY2013 DTA Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$140,000
$130,000
$120,000
(Amount in Thousands)
$110,000
$100,000
$90,000
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$131,468
$125,496
$121,257
$115,805
$109,416
$104,574
$97,988
$93,744
$87,157
$83,513
$77,017
$73,459
$65,548
$62,634
$54,813
$52,468
$43,426
$41,772
$10,000
$31,852
$31,072
$20,000
$22,415
$21,354
$30,000
$11,003
$10,426
$40,000
$Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Actual/Forecast
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
Gray : FY13 Appropriation
10
Jan
Feb
FY13 Budget
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
FY2013 Supportive Caseload
Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures
$100,000
$90,000
(Amount in Thousands)
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$74,538
$77,331
$68,373
$70,913
$61,747
$64,062
$55,412
$57,507
$49,366
$51,248
$43,653
$45,058
$37,118
$38,317
$31,178
$32,147
$25,008
$25,673
$18,673
$18,967
$13,013
$13,124
$10,000
$6,443
$6,428
$20,000
$Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Actual/Forecast
Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures
11
Gray : : FY13 Appropriation
Jan
Feb
FY13 Budget
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
FY12/13 IE Contract Slots - Regular and Flex
16,000.0
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
8,000.0
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
(2,000.0)
Regular
Filled
Regular
Open
Flex Filled
Flex Open
Flex - Over
5%
Flex Under 5%
11/1/2011
12,801.5
1,637.5
640.0
214.0
(495.5)
710.5
11/29/2011
13,029.5
1,429.5
623.5
232.5
(473.0)
705.5
1/3/2012
12,937.5
1,531.5
596.5
264.0
(438.0)
701.5
1/31/2012
13,213.5
1,257.5
585.5
274.5
(437.0)
711.5
3/1/2012
13,271.5
1,194.5
579.5
279.5
(432.0)
711.5
3/30/2012
13,391.0
1,071.0
604.5
254.5
(441.5)
696.0
4/30/2012
13,388.0
1,074.0
640.5
218.5
(451.0)
669.5
5/29/2012
13,266.0
1,197.0
596.5
278.5
(426.0)
704.5
7/1/2012
13,305.0
1,447.0
513.5
345.5
(381.5)
727.0
8/1/2012
12,978.0
1,530.0
492.5
365.5
(368.5)
734.0
9/28/2012
12,434.0
2,057.0
427.0
430.5
(309.0)
739.5
10/30/2012
12,751.5
1,738.5
427.0
430.5
(303.5)
725.0
11/28/2012
12,881.5
1,608.5
426.5
421.5
(289.0)
719.5
1/1/2013
12,783.5
1,706.5
400.0
457.0
(273.0)
730.0
Total Awarded Slots is 14490 and Allowable Flex Slots is 857
27 Providers representing 32 contracts are Over 5% Flex (273)
12
**No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.
New Children on Waitlist (Jan 2012 thru June 2012)
Active Since Month
06/01/2012 To 06/30/2012
05/01/2012 To 05/31/2012
04/01/2012 To 04/30/2012
03/01/2012 To 03/31/2012
02/01/2012 To 02/29/2012
01/01/2012 To 01/31/2012
Total
13
Infant
353
394
374
425
353
340
2,239
Preschool
419
470
391
468
392
367
2,507
School
Toddler Unborn
Age
657
317
134
574
361
155
446
356
148
461
383
160
355
321
149
362
298
120
2,855
2,036
866
Total
1,880
1,954
1,715
1,897
1,570
1,487
10,503
Note: This report shows the number of children who first time entered waitlist, as active child, within specified period
of time and still active when the report is created.
New ChildrenonWaitlist (July 2012 thru Dec
2012)
Active Since Month
12/01/2012 To 12/31/2012
11/01/2012 To 11/30/2012
10/01/2012 To 10/31/2012
09/01/2012 To 09/30/2012
08/01/2012 To 08/31/2012
07/01/2012 To 07/31/2012
Total
14
Infant
Preschool
300
363
478
567
459
414
2,581
286
368
546
674
566
469
2,909
School
Toddler Unborn
Age
325
233
96
320
374
116
597
467
169
706
512
162
680
518
140
548
390
145
3,176
2,494
828
Total
1,240
1,541
2,257
2,621
2,363
1,966
11,988
Note: This report shows the number of children who first time entered waitlist, as active child, within specified period
of time and still active when the report is created.
Waitlist Enrollment in 2012
Age
Group
Infant
Toddler
Preschool
School Age
15
Enrolled in
Voucher/Contract
Contract
Voucher
No Found
Total
Contract
Voucher
No Found
Total
Contract
Voucher
No Found
Total
Contract
Voucher
No Found
Total
Grand Total
Kids
745
173
51
969
1,260
166
11
1,437
3,344
315
19
3,678
1,803
538
22
2,363
8447
Avg days on
waitlist before
enrollment
STD Median
Available
days
Days
funding
on
on
letters sent
Waitlist Waitlist
147
219
248
165
238
229
251
237
221
175
224
217
154
201
304
166
The children count is the sum from the first to the end of the month on specified month.
147
186
137
158
201
189
181
199
206
182
145
204
195
228
141
204
106
196
267
128
204
218
268
212
174
137
211
171
63
160
272
81
537
277
95
909
1,070
164
16
1,250
3,687
250
34
3,971
894
409
41
1,344
Caseload Waitlist Since 11/2011
*Waiting List Category
11/30/11
Total
12/31/11
Total
1/31/12
Total
2/29/12
Total
3/31/12
Total
4/30/12
Total
5/31/12
Total
6/30/12
Total
7/31/12
Total
8/30/12
Total
9/30/12
Total
11/30/12
Total
12/31/12
Total
Child of Foster Care
137
143
153
149
162
205
216
215
227
241
255
269
276
282
Child of Homeless family
144
158
181
186
201
315
342
374
410
435
460
482
520
536
Child of Military Personnel
50
54
56
54
57
68
69
71
71
71
79
95
101
105
Child of Teen Parent
174
187
195
234
247
312
343
355
380
406
427
461
477
481
Child w ith Special Needs
936
975
1,031
1,083
1,149
1,449
1,577
1,676
1,765
1,890
1,978
2,056
2,117
2,198
66
83
124
122
123
123
120
135
Continuity of Care: Prior Year Summer
Only
Continuity of Care: Aging Out
285
280
279
288
289
301
310
312
315
388
405
404
409
411
Continuity of Care: Approved Break in
Service
294
301
303
309
315
337
353
359
383
437
448
450
442
451
Continuity of Care: ARRA
126
125
125
143
137
159
162
159
160
153
151
148
146
149
67
73
84
86
90
118
123
134
142
168
182
171
182
186
Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation
Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract
5
8
8
8
10
16
17
18
19
17
20
20
25
27
Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral
102
100
108
112
114
184
204
226
233
245
247
255
269
279
Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract
20
20
20
22
21
23
23
23
23
27
31
32
32
32
22,711
23,638
24,581
26,009
26,946
28,818
30,564
31,958
33,370
35,264
37,113
38,268
39,470
40,431
6
14
26
347
32
144
171
482
220
518
542
538
282
295
Grandparent/Guardian Families
327
329
337
31
361
461
482
631
504
616
590
561
541
547
Parent w ith Special Needs
496
509
531
570
551
657
681
193
734
235
253
268
805
806
Sibling: Contract
250
266
282
330
334
485
460
700
516
764
795
795
654
672
Sibling: Voucher
575
605
641
680
683
685
603
500
684
555
602
630
788
804
Summer only care
591
586
595
619
621
736
748
653
875
712
734
745
899
893
-
656
636
944
623
867
876
888
556
541
General Priority
No Priority - Other Family Member
N/A
Grand Total
16
10/31/12
Total
* Waitlist Data as of September 2011 is reported from KinderWait
** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state.