STAT 200: Elementary Statistics Instructor: Scott Roths Email: sar320@psu.edu Office: 333 Thomas Hours: Thurs/Fri 2:00 – 3:00 Phone: 865-1348 TA: TBA Email: TBA rd Text: Mind on Statistics, 3 Edition, by Utts and Heckard Grading: There are 250 equally weighted points. (72pts) Homework (28pts) Project (150pts) Exams Homework: Textbook exercises are assigned over the material covered each lecture period. These, along with lab activities, are collected the next lecture day after being assigned unless otherwise specified. Late work is penalized 17% and accepted only if solutions have not already been posted. Project: This involves an analysis of a data set using computer software and a written summary of conclusions using the techniques covered in class. Grammar and neatness count toward the grade. Midterm Exams: There are two of these, and each is worth 50 pts. A calculator is the only allowed aid (some formulas and tables may be provided). Dates for these exams are July 15 and July 29. Final Exam: The final exam is scheduled for Friday, August 13. It will not be completely comprehensive, but many topics are extended from previous material. Conflicts on exam dates must be resolved in advance. An unexcused absence on an exam date may result in a score of 0. Please allow 24 hours for email response. Letter Grades: Semester grades are assigned according to this scale. 93 – 99% 90 – 92% 87 – 89% 83 – 86% 80 – 82% 77 – 79% 70 – 76% 60 – 69% 0 – 59% A AB+ B BC+ C D F Computers: Minitab 16 will be used throughout the semester. Students wishing to install it on their own computers may go to www.minitab.com/education. Various how-to tips are given in the textbook. ANGEL Announcements: Exam dates, all assignments, due dates, and grades are posted on ANGEL throughout the course. Students are expected to check the ANGEL page daily. Academic Integrity: The pursuit of scholarly activity free from fraud and deception is an educational expectation at Penn State. This course will follow the guidelines found in Section 49-20 of the University Faculty Senate Policies for Students. See http://www.science.psu.edu/academic/Integrity concerning academic integrity for details. Course Goals: At the end of this course, you should be able to: Understand the reasoning by which findings from sample data can be extended to larger, more general populations Critically evaluate the results of scientific studies Design, conduct, and analyze a scientific research study Read statistical summaries Analyze data using statistical software (Minitab) Study and understand examples and applications from a variety of fields Learn independently and work cooperatively Tentative Daily Lecture Topics: 1. Descriptive Statistics: Frequency and relative frequency distributions, two-way tables, graphical displays, histograms, boxplots, mean, median, standard deviation, variance, 5-number summary 2. Descriptive Statistics for Two Quantitative Variables: Scatterplots, simple regression, correlation 3. Probability: Basic probability definitions and discrete distributions 4. Probability (cont): Continuous random variables and the normal distribution 5. Sampling Distributions: Statistics, parameters, concept of a sampling distribution, sampling distribution of a sample mean, sampling distribution of sample proportion, Central Limit Theorem 6. Exam 1 7. Confidence Intervals: Interpretation and purpose of confidence interval and confidence level, confidence intervals for a proportion and a mean 8. Confidence Intervals (cont): Mean difference with paired data, difference in two means, difference in two proportions 9. Hypothesis Tests: Null and alternative hypotheses, type 1 and 2 errors, rejection region and critical value approach for one proportion and one mean 10. Hypothesis Tests (cont): P-values, statistical power, effect of sample size on significance, rejection regions. Hypothesis tests about a mean difference (t-test and paired t-test), about difference in two means (two-sample t-test), hypothesis test about difference in two proportions 11. Exam 2 12. Inference for Regression and Correlation: Hypothesis tests for slope of straight line and for correlation, prediction intervals. 13. Inference for Two-Way Tables: Chi-square test for two-way tables 14. One-Way Analysis of Variance: F-test for comparing several means 15. Methods for Collecting Data in Sample Surveys and Experiments: Simple random sampling, stratified sampling, cluster sampling, systematic sampling, random digit dialing, randomization, matched pairs, blocking, confounding issues