252solngr1 9/16/05 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Graded Assignment 1 Please show your work! Neatness and whether the papers are stapled may affect your grade. 1. A magazine wants to estimate the mean leisure time in hours enjoyed weekly by managers. Data taken from a sample of 21 managers follows: 15 12 18 23 11 21 16 13 9 19 26 11 7 18 11 15 23 26 10 8 17 Compute the sample standard deviation using the computational formula. Use this sample standard deviation to compute a 98% confidence interval for the mean. Does the mean differ significantly from 19 hours? Why? 2. How would your results change if the sample of 21 had been taken from a population of 100? 3. Assume that the population standard deviation is 6.00 (and that the sample of 21 is taken from a very large population). Find z .0005 using the Normal table (If you have several values of z that you can use, pick the average of the extreme ones.) and use it to compute a 99.9% confidence interval. Does the mean differ significantly from 19 hours? Why? Solution: 1) x index 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 sum sx x 329 , x 5825 , x 329 15.6667 x 2 x2 15 225 12 144 18 324 23 529 11 121 21 441 16 256 13 169 9 81 19 361 26 676 11 121 7 49 18 324 11 121 15 225 23 529 26 676 10 100 8 64 17 289 329 5825 sx n n s x2 x n 21 21 2 nx 2 5825 2115 .6667 2 20 n 1 670 .64473 33 .532237 20 The formula for the sapmle standard deviation is in Table 20 of the Supplement. s x 33 .532237 5.7907 . s x2 33 .532237 1.59677 1.2636 n 21 1 .98 .02 2 .01 20 t n1 t.01 2.528 2 From Table 3 x tn 1 s x is the formula for a two sided confidence interval when the population 2 standard deviation is unknown. x t n1 s x 15.6667 2.5281.2636 15.6667 3.1944 or 12.472 2 to 18.861. If we ask if the mean is significantly different from 19, our null hypothesis is H 0 : 19 and since 19 is not between the top and the bottom of the confidence interval, reject H 0 and say that the mean is significantly different from 19. (But it is not significantly different from 18!) 252solngr1 9/16/05 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) 2) If N 100 , the sample of 15 is more than 5% of the population, so use sx N n 100 21 1.2636 1.2636 0.7980 1.2636 0.89330 1.1288 . N 1 100 1 sx n Recall that x 15.6667 , .02 , 2 20 .01 and t n1 t.01 2.528 . 2 Confidence interval: x tn 1 s x is the formula for a two sided interval. 2 x t n1 s x 15.6667 2.5281.1288 15.6667 2.5488 or 13.118 to 18.215. The interval is 2 smaller, but it doesn’t change anything – the mean is still significantly different from 19 (but not 18). 3) a) Find z .0005 . Make a diagram! The diagram for z will be a Normal curve centered at zero and will show one point, z .0005 , which has 0.05% above it (and 99.95% below it!) and is above zero because zero has 50% below it. Since zero has 50% above it, the diagram will show 49.95% between zero and z .0005 . From the diagram, we want one point z .0005 so that Pz z .0005 .0005 or P0 z z .0005 .4995 . On the interior of the Normal table we can find to .4995 exactly. In fact, it says P0 z z 0 .4995 for any value of z 0 between 3.27 and 3.32. A compromise seems to be required, so note that the halfway point between these numbers is 3.295. This means that we will say z.005 3.295 . Check: Pz 3.295 Pz 0 P0 z 3.295 .5 .4995 .0005 . This is verified graphically below. b) We know that x 15.6667 , n 21 and 6.00 . So x 6.00 62 1.7143 21 n 21 =1.3093. The 99.9% confidence interval has 1 .999 or .001 , so z z.0005 3.295 . The 2 confidence interval is x z x 15 .6667 3.295 1.3093 15.6667 5.1390 or 10.53 to 20.81. If 2 we test the null hypothesis H 0 : 19 against the alternative hypothesis H1 : 19 , since 19 is on the confidence interval, we do not reject the null hypothesis. Extra Credit: 4) a. Use the data above to compute a 98% confidence interval for the population standard deviation. Solution: From the supplement pg 1, n 1s 2 2 2 2 .01 . We use n 1 20 21 .99 8.2604 . The formula becomes 2 2 1 2 s x 5.7907 , n 21 , .02 and n 1s 2 2 n 1 2 2 20 .01 37.5662 and 20 33 .532237 37 .5662 . We know s x2 33.532237 , 2 20 33 .532237 8.2604 or 17.8523 2 81.1879 . If we take square roots, we get 4.225 9.010 . b. Assume that you got the sample standard deviation that you got above from a sample of 45, repeat a. s 2 DF s 2 DF Solution: From the supplement pg 2, . We now have s x 5.7907 , z 2 DF z 2 DF 2 n 45 , .02 and becomes 2 2 .01 . We use z .01 2.327 and 5.7907 9.3808 2.327 9.3808 5.7907 9.3808 2.327 9.3808 2 DF 2(44 ) 88 9.3808 . The formula or 4.640 7.701 . 252solngr1 9/16/05 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) c. Fool around with the method for getting a confidence interval for a median and try to come close to a 99% confidence interval for the median. The numbers in order are x1 x 2 x3 x 4 x5 x 6 x 7 x8 x 9 x10 x11 x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 x 20 x 21 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 15 15 16 17 18 18 19 21 23 23 26 26 It says on the outline that 2Px k 1 . We want to be 1% or lower which means Px k 1 .005 . Unfortunately, our Binomial table only goes to n 20 and n 25 , and if we look where p .50 , we find that the first quantity at or below 0.5% is Px 4 .00129 for n 20 and Px 5 .00204 for n 25 . So we can only guess that k is between 5 and 6. To be more accurate, use n 1 z .2 n 21 1 2.576 21 22 11 .8047 5.10 . It tells us to use the 5th number 2 2 2 from the end, since, if we want to be conservative we round the answer down. I can check my results two ways. I am using a continuity correction, which adds 0.5 to each interval. 4.5 21.5 4.5 10 .5 k 1 4 Px 4.5 P z Pz 2.62 .5 .4956 .0044 P z 2.2912878 21.5.5 5.5 21.5 5.5 10 .5 k 1 5 Px 5.5 P z Pz Pz 2.18 .5 .4854 .0146 2 . 2912878 21 . 5 . 5 the formula k I also checked it by generating a binomial table for n 25 and p .5 on Minitab. I put the numbers 0 through 7 in C1, used the Calc menu, then Probability Distributions and then Binomial. In the dialog box I picked, Cumulative probability, Number of trials = 21 , Probability of success =.5, Input column = C1 and Optional storage = C2. The equivalent command is: MTB > CDF c1 c2; SUBC> Binomial 21 The results, in C1 and C2 are: x0 P x x 0 0 0.0000005 1 0.0000105 2 0.0001106 3 0.0007448 4 0.0035987 5 0.0133018 6 0.0391769 7 0.0946236 0.5. 252solngr1 9/16/05 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) How I got these results ‘MTB >’ is the Minitab prompt. The retrieval is done using the ‘file’ pull-down menu and the ‘open worksheet’ command followed by finding where I put the data. Other instructions were typed in the ‘session’ window. I put the data in column 1 in Minitab and used the ‘Gsummary’ and ‘Describe’ commands to get the mean and standard deviation. Session to get confidence intervals ————— 9/16/2005 5:34:34 PM ———————————————————— Welcome to Minitab, press F1 for help. Results for: 2gr1-052.MTW MTB > WOpen "C:\Documents and Settings\rbove\My Documents\Minitab\2gr1-052.MTW". Retrieving worksheet from file: 'C:\Documents and Settings\rbove\My Documents\Minitab\2gr1-052.MTW' Worksheet was saved on Wed Sep 07 2005 MTB > Describe c1 Descriptive Statistics: time Variable time N 21 N* 0 Mean 15.67 SE Mean 1.26 StDev 5.79 Minimum 7.00 Q1 11.00 Median 15.00 MTB > Gsummary c1; SUBC> confidence 98. Summary for time MTB > let c2 = c1*c1 MTB > sum c1 Sum of time Sum of time = 329 MTB > sum c2 Sum of C2 Sum of C2 = 5825 I computed the square of C1 in C2.. I got the sums for computing the variance. Q3 20.00 Maximum 26.00 252solngr1 9/16/05 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) MTB > print c1 c2 Data Display Row 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 time 15 12 18 23 11 21 16 13 9 19 26 11 7 18 11 15 23 26 10 8 17 C2 225 144 324 529 121 441 256 169 81 361 676 121 49 324 121 225 529 676 100 64 289 MTB > Onet c1; This does a 98% confidence interval and a test for a mean of 19 using s. SUBC> test 19; SUBC> confidence 98. One-Sample T: time Test of mu = 19 vs not = 19 Variable time N 21 Mean 15.6667 StDev 5.7908 SE Mean 1.2637 98% CI (12.4722, 18.8612) T -2.64 P 0.016 MTB > Onez c1; This does a 99.9% confidence interval and a test for a mean of 19 using sigma. SUBC> sigma 6; SUBC> confidence 99.9. One-Sample Z: time The assumed standard deviation = 6 Variable time MTB > MTB > SUBC> MTB > N 21 Mean 15.6667 let c5=c1 sort c5 c5; by c5. print c5 StDev 5.7908 SE Mean 1.3093 99.9% CI (11.3584, 19.9750) This sorts c1, which I moved to c5 Data Display times 7 19 8 21 9 23 10 23 11 26 11 26 11 12 13 15 15 16 17 18 18 252solngr1 9/16/05 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Session to verify value of z Welcome to Minitab, press F1 for help. MTB > WOpen "C:\Documents and Settings\rbove\My Documents\Minitab\notmuch.MTW". Retrieving worksheet from file: 'C:\Documents and Settings\rbove\My Documents\Minitab\notmuch.MTW' This worksheet is nonsense and not actually used.. Worksheet was saved on Thu Apr 14 2005 It gets Minitab to look in the same place for normarea. Results for: notmuch.MTW MTB > %normarea5a This does the graph shown below. It prompts you to put in the data. Executing from file: normarea5a.MAC Graphic display of normal curve areas Finds and displays areas to the left or right of a given value or between two values. (This macro uses C100-C116 and K100-K116) Enter the mean and standard deviation of the normal curve. DATA> 0 DATA> 1 Do you want the area to the left of a value? (Y or N) no Do you want the area to the right of a value? (Y or N) yes Enter the value for which you want the area to the right. DATA> 3.295 ...working... Normal Curve Area 252solngr1 9/16/05 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Extra Credit Minitab Problem 5. Check some numbers in the t, Chi-Squared or F tables using the new set of Minitab routines that I have prepared. To use the new set of routines, set up a file to hold your work. Then go to http://courses.wcupa.edu/rbove , open the Minitab folder and download any of the following: Normal Distribution Area programs: NormArea5A.txt or NormArea5C.txt and NormArea5.txt. t Distribution Area programs: tAreaA.txt or tAreaC.txt and tArea.txt Chi-squared Distribution Area programs: ChiAreaA.txt or ChiAreaC.txt and ChiArea.txt F Distribution area programs: FAreaA.txt or FAreaC.txt and FArea.txt Use Notepad (under ‘tools’ in Minitab’) to convert their extensions from .txt back to .mac. To see how they are used, look at http://courses.wcupa.edu/rbove/Minitab/Area.doc. Routines like tAreaA are self prompting. To use routines like tAreaC, you need to set up your data in advance. If you want to use one of the worksheets that are mentioned in http://courses.wcupa.edu/rbove/Minitab/Area.doc, click on ‘File’ and then ‘Open Worksheet.’ Copy a URL like the ones below into File Name.’ http://courses.wcupa.edu/rbove/Minitab/252PrA1d-f.MTW http://courses.wcupa.edu/rbove/Minitab/tEx1.MTW http://courses.wcupa.edu/rbove/Minitab/ChiEx1.MTW http://courses.wcupa.edu/rbove/Minitab/FEx1.MTW Addendum: To get graphs into a document do the following. While you are in Minitab, click on the graph and use the ‘File’ menu; choose ‘Save Graph as….’ A menu will appear. Pick a type (like ‘.jpg’ for color or ‘.png’ for black and white) under ‘Save as type …’ give the graph a name like ‘graph1.jpg’ and the graph will be placed in the same file that contains your data and macro. You can now use the ‘Insert’ menu in Word to insert a picture. 10 10 10 1.372 , z.10 1.282 , 2 .10 15.9872 , 2.90 4.8650 , Results: I looked at the tables and found t.10 10,10 2.32 and F 10,10 1 F.10 0.431 . For the numbers with .10 as a subscript, I checked that the .90 2.32 probability above them was .10, for the numbers with .90 as a subscript, I checked that the probability below them was .10. ————— 9/19/2005 5:33:43 PM ———————————————————— Welcome to Minitab, press F1 for help. MTB > WOpen "C:\Documents and Settings\rbove\My Documents\Minitab\notmuch.MTW". Retrieving worksheet from file: 'C:\Documents and Settings\rbove\My Documents\Minitab\notmuch.MTW' Worksheet was saved on Thu Apr 14 2005 Results for: notmuch.MTW 252solngr1 9/16/05 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) MTB > %tarea6a Executing from file: tarea6a.MAC Graphic display of t curve areas Finds and displays areas to the left or right of a given value or between two values. (This macro uses C100-C116 and K100-K120) Enter the degrees of freedom. DATA> 10 Do you want the area to the left of a value? (Y or N) n Do you want the area to the right of a value? (Y or N) y Enter the value for which you want the area to the right. DATA> 1.372 ...working... t Curve Area Data Display mode median 0 0 MTB > %normarea6a Executing from file: normarea6a.MAC Graphic display of normal curve areas Finds and displays areas to the left or right of a given value or between two values. (This macro uses C100-C116 and K100-K116) Enter the mean and standard deviation of the normal curve. DATA> 0 DATA> 1 Do you want the area to the left of a value? (Y or N) n Do you want the area to the right of a value? (Y or N) y Enter the value for which you want the area to the right. DATA> 1.282 ...working... 252solngr1 9/16/05 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) Normal Curve Area MTB > %chiarea6a Executing from file: chiarea6a.MAC Graphic display of chi square curve areas Finds and displays areas to the left or right of a given value or between two values. (This macro uses C100-C116 and K100-K120) Enter the degrees of freedom. DATA> 10 Do you want the area to the left of a value? (Y or N) n Do you want the area to the right of a value? (Y or N) y Enter the value for which you want the area to the right. DATA> 15.9872 ...working... ChiSquare Curve Area Data Display std_dev mode median 4.47214 8.00000 9.33333 252solngr1 9/16/05 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) MTB > %chiarea6a Executing from file: chiarea6a.MAC Graphic display of chi square curve areas Finds and displays areas to the left or right of a given value or between two values. (This macro uses C100-C116 and K100-K120) Enter the degrees of freedom. DATA> 10 Do you want the area to the left of a value? (Y or N) l Please answer Yes or No. y Enter the value for which you want the area to the left. DATA> 4.8650 ...working... Chi Squared Curve Area Data Display std_dev mode median 4.47214 8.00000 9.33333 MTB > %farea6a Executing from file: farea6a.MAC Graphic display of F curve areas Finds and displays areas to the left or right of a given value or between two values. (This macro uses C100-C116 and K100-K120) Enter the degrees of freedom.DF2 must be above 4. DATA> 10 DATA> 10 Do you want the area to the left of a value? (Y or N) n Do you want the area to the right of a value? (Y or N) y Enter the value for which you want the area to the right. DATA> 2.32 ...working... 252solngr1 9/16/05 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) F Curve Area Data Display mode 0.818182 std dev 0.968246 MTB > %farea6a Executing from file: farea6a.MAC Graphic display of F curve areas Finds and displays areas to the left or right of a given value or between two values. (This macro uses C100-C116 and K100-K120) Enter the degrees of freedom.DF2 must be above 4. DATA> 10 DATA> 10 Do you want the area to the left of a value? (Y or N) y Enter the value for which you want the area to the left. DATA> .431 ...working... F Curve Area Data Display mode 0.818182 std dev 0.968246 MTB >