America’s New Demography
Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers
and Emerging Cultural Gaps
William H. Frey
The Brookings Institution
April 23, 2013
US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
46.6%
300,000
White
Black
250,000
200,000
Asian
69.1%
150,000
Hispani
c
Other
100,000
50,000
0
2000
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2050
US: Population by Age: 2000 and 2050
450,000
400,000
21.0%
350,000
65+
300,000
250,000
12.4%
45-54
200,000
20-44
150,000
Under 20
100,000
50,000
0
2000
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2050
Race Ethnic Shares
2010 Population
2000-10 Growth
8.3
1.9
4.7
16.3
13.7
55.5
12.2
63.7
15.9
5.0
White
Hawaii
Black
Othr Race
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Am Indian
2+ Races
Asian
Hispanic
Median Ages of Race-Ethnic Groups
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
41
34
30
30
27
20
Whites
Asians
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Blacks
Am
Indians
Hispanics
2+Races
US Adult and Child Populations, 1990-2010
Children
Adults
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
7
11
78
1990
White
Hawaii
11
11
72
2000
14
12
12
15
15
23
14
67
69
61
54
2010
1990
2000
2010
Black
Othr Race
Source: William H. Frey analysis
17
Am Indian
2+ Races
Asian
Hispanic
2000-2010 Change in Child Population
by Race-Ethnicity
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
-2,000,000
-4,000,000
-6,000,000
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Am
Indian
Asian
2+ Races Hispanic
New Demographic Regions

Melting Pot America

The New Sunbelt

The Heartland
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Melting Pot, New Sunbelt
and Heartland States
Melting Pot
New Sunbelt
Heartland
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States
Native Born
37%
Foreign Born
66%
Spanish at Home
72%
Asian Language at Home
65%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Demographic Components, 2000-2009
(Rates per 1000)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
57
42
Immigration
26
Domestic
Migration
16
-15
-18
Melting Pot
New Sunbelt
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Heartland
Born in Same State
GT 63%
LT 63%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Domestic Migration Magnets, 2000-09
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Phoenix
Riverside, CA
Atlanta
Dallas
Las Vegas
Tampa
Charlotte
Houston
Source: William H. Frey analysis
530,579
457,430
412,832
307,907
299,027
254,650
243,399
242,573
Immigrant Magnet Metros, 2000-09
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
New York
1,079,016
Los Angeles
803,614
Miami
506,423
Chicago
363,134
Dallas
323,941
Washington DC
310,222
Houston
289,648
San Francisco
257,318
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Greatest Domestic Out-Migration,
2000-09
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Detroit
San Francisco
New Orleans
Miami
San Jose
Source: William H. Frey analysis
-1,920,745
-1,337,522
-547,430
-361,632
-343,834
- 298,721
-284,860
-233,133
Greatest
_______
Immigrant
________
Growth
_____
2000-2010
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Alabama
South
Carolina
Tennessee Arkansas
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Kentucky
North
Carolina
South
Dakota
Georgia
19
48
19 -194
50
9
19 -195
52
1
19 -195
54
3
19 -195
56
5
19 -195
58
7
19 -195
60
9
19 -196
62
1
19 -196
64
3
19 -196
66
5
19 -196
68
7
19 -196
70
9
19 -197
75
1
19 -197
80
6
19 -198
82
1
19 -198
84
3
19 -198
86
5
19 -198
88
7
19 -198
9
19 0-19 9
92
- 91
19 1993
94
*
19 -199
96
5
19 -199
98
7
20 -199
00
9
20 -200
02
1
20 -200
04
3
20 -200
06
5
20 -200
08
-20 7
09
Migration Slowdown
1947-8 to 2009-10
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Race –Ethnic Profiles of Regions 2010
Heartland
New Sunbelt
Melting Pot
3% 6%
12%
2%
4%
28%
12%
3%
51%
14%
3%
67%
7%
77%
11%
White
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Black
Asian
Other
Hispanic
Hispanic Concentrations 2010
Percent of County
Population
25% and above
10.0% to 24.9%
5.0 to 9.9%
Under
5%
Source:
William
H. Frey analysis
Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Largest Hispanic Gains 2000-2010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
State
California
Texas
Florida
Arizona
New York
Illinois
New Jersey
North Carolina
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Gains
3,047,163
2,791,255
1,541,091
599,532
549,339
497,316
437,953
421,157
Greatest Hispanic Growth Rates 2000-2010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
State
South Carolina
Alabama
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
North Carolina
Maryland
Mississippi
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Growth
148%
145%
134%
122%
114%
111%
106%
106%
Asian Concentrations 2010
Percent of County
Population
10% and above
5.0% to 9.9%
2.0% to 4.9%
UnderWilliam
2%
Source:
H. Frey analysis
Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Largest Asian Gains 2000-2010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
State
California
Texas
New York
New Jersey
Florida
Virginia
Illinois
Washington
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Gains
1,126,210
393,981
370,268
242,815
183,523
177,021
160,670
156,233
Greatest Asian Growth Rates 2000-2010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
State
Nevada
North Dakota
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia
Arkansas
New Hampshire
Delaware
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Growth
116%
92%
91%
84%
82%
79%
79%
76%
Black Concentrations 2010
Percent of County
Population
25% and above
10.0% to 24.9%
5.0% to 9.9%
UnderWilliam
5%
Source:
H. Frey analysis
Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Largest Black Gains 2000-2010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
State
Florida
Georgia
Texas
North Carolina
Maryland
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Gains
586,832
579,335
522,570
296,553
209,494
147,326
124,654
121,187
White Concentrations 2010
Percent of County
Population
95% and above
85.0% to 94.9%
70.0% to 84.9%
Under
70% H. Frey analysis
Source:
William
Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Largest White Gains 2000-2010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
State
North Carolina
Texas
Florida
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
South Carolina
Tennessee
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Gains
576,840
464,032
426,213
421,389
317,913
317,454
310,449
294,852
Largest White Losses 2000-2010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
State
California
New York
New Jersey
Illinois
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Massachusetts
Ohio
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Losses
-860,537
-456,734
-342,331
-256,387
-236,752
-227,803
-213,559
-178,848
Metro-NonMetro Race Changes, 1990-2010
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
82
71
64
86
72
82
80
57
1990 2000 2010
Large Metros**
White*
77
Black*
Source: William H. Frey analysis
1990 2000 2010
1990 2000 2010
Small Metros
Asian*
Other Races*
NonMetros
Hispanic
City and Suburb Populations, 1990-2010
Suburbs
Cities
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
17
24
22
26
23
8
7
9
17
10
22
81
53
45
41
1990
2000
2010
White
Hawaii
12
Black
Othr Race
Source: William H. Frey analysis
1990
Am Indian
2+ Races
72
2000
65
2010
Asian
Hispanic
2000-10 Change in City and Suburb
Population by Race/Ethnicity
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
City
Suburbs
-2,000,000
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian
2+ Races
Hispanic
City Suburb Race-Ethnic Profiles Selected Metros
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Atlanta
Los Angeles
Detroit
81
55
28
City
36
36
Suburbs
City
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
36
Suburbs
City
Suburbs
Asian/other
Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Cities with Greatest Black Losses 2000-2010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
City
Detroit
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Washington DC
Oakland
Cleveland
Atlanta
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Black Loss
-185,393
-181,453
-100,859
-54,606
-39,035
-33,502
-33,304
-29,746
Metro Residents Living in Suburbs
1990-2010
90
80
78
74 77
70
60
50
37
40
44
51
54 57
62
47
54
59
30
20
10
0
White
Black
1990
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian
2000
Hispanic
2010
US Growth by Age 2000-10
60
50
50
40
30
19
20
10
18
11
12
3
2
0
-10
-9
-20
0- 14
15-24
25-34
Source: William H. Frey analysis
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
State Growth in Child Population*, 2000-10
Growth 5% and over
Growth under 5%
Decline under 5%
Decline 5% and over
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Under age 18
Percent Minority Children, 2010
GT 50%
40% - 50%
25% - 40%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Under 25%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Percent Children with Immigrant Parents
60
50
51%
40
35%
35%
34%
32%
30
31%
31%
23%
20
10
0
CA
NY
NV
Ist Gen
Source: William H. Frey analysis
AZ
FL
NJ
TX
2nd Gen
US
Children Speaking Other than English
GT 20%
10% - 20%
6% - 10%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Under 6%
* Ages 5 - 17
S
o
u
r
c
e
:
W
i
l
l
i
a
m
H
F
r
e
y
a
English Proficiency- Children and Adults
25
22
20
20
17
15
11
10
5
0
Not English At Home
Children
Source: William H. Frey analysis
English Very Well
Adults
Education by Race-Ethnicity
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10
17
18
31
50
52
Hispanic
Foreign
Born
22
18
Hispanic
Native
Born
Black
Less then HS
Source: William H. Frey analysis
HS grad
10
14
White
Asian
Some College
Pew Hispanic Center
College Grads
HS Dropout Rates: Hispanics Age 16-24
35
32.9
30
25
20
17.2
15
11.6
8.5
10
5
0
All Hispanics
1st Gen
Source: Pew
William
Research
H. Frey
Center
analysis
2nd Gen
3rd Gen +
Percent College Graduates for States
GT 30%
25% -30%
Under 25%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Largest Percent College Grads
1
2
3
4
A
l
a
s
k
a
Washington DC
San Jose
Bridgeport
San Francisco
5 Madison
6
7
8
9
10
Boston
Raleigh
Austin
Denver
Minn-St.Paul
Source: William H. Frey analysis
47%
45%
44%
43%
43%
43%
41%
39%
38%
38%
Ratio of College Grads to High School Dropouts
3.0 and above
2.0 – 3.0
Below 2.0
Source: William H. Frey analysis
US Growth by Age 2000-10
60
50
50
40
30
19
20
10
18
11
12
3
2
0
-10
-9
-20
0- 14
15-24
25-34
Source: William H. Frey analysis
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Median Ages for States, 2010
40 and over
38 to 40
36 to 38
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Below 36
Age 65 + Growth 2000-10
GT 25%
15% -25%
10% -15%
under 10%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Greatest 65+ Growth, 2000-2010
1
2
3
4
A
l
a
s
k
a
Raleigh
Austin
Las Vegas
Boise City
5 Atlanta
6
7
8
9
10
Provo
Colorado Springs
Houston
Dallas
Charlotte
Source: William H. Frey analysis
60%
53%
50%
46%
44%
42%
40%
39%
38%
36%
Population Changes in the
First Three Decades, 21st Century
12,000
Young Elderly
Old Elderly
(65 - 74)
(75 +)
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2000 - 2010
Source:William
WilliamH.H.
Frey analysis
Source:
Frey
2010 - 2020
2020- 2030
Projected Age 65+ Growth
2000-30, US States
140% & above
100% -139%
70% -99%
under 69%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Florida
Source: William H. Frey analysis
California
2000-05
2005-10
2010-15
2015-20
2020-25
2025-30
2030-35
2035-40
2000-05
2005-10
2010-15
2015-20
2020-25
2025-30
2030-35
2035-40
2005-10
2010-15
2015-20
2020-25
2025-30
2030-35
2035-40
percent growth
Projected Age 65+ Growth, 2000-40
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
New York
Percent Age 65+, Central and Suburban Counties,
Projected 2000-2040: Selected Metro Areas
25
20
15
10
5
200
2000
2015
2010
2025
2020
2035
2030
2045
0
200
2000
2015
2010
2025
2020
2035
2030
2045
0
200
2000
2015
2010
2025
2020
2035
2030
2045
0
200
2000
2015
2010
2025
2020
2035
2030
2045
0
0
New York
Philadelphia
Central Cos.
Source:
Source:William
WilliamH.
H.Frey
Freyanalysis
analysis
Chicago
Suburban Cos.
Los Anglos
Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife
55%
% With 3+ Kids
30%
21%
% Not Married
36%
50%
%Women Not Working
23%
38%
% HS Dropout
14%
0%
10%
20%
Boomers
Source: William H. Frey analysis
30%
40%
Parents
50%
60%
Projected Race-Ethnic Shares, 2000-30
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Children
61
54
50
46
2000
2010
2020
2030
white
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Seniors
84
80
76
71
2000
2010
2020
2030
Asian/Other
Hispanic
Contributions to Labor Force Growth
2010-2020 (in millions)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
9.6
2
3.5
-5
White
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Black
Asian/Other
Hispanic
Race for Age Groups: US
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
71.6
55.5
60.3
Age Under
15
Age 15-39
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian
Age 40-64
Other
80.4
Age 65+
Hispanic
Race for Age Groups: California
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
53.5
31.8
36.7
Age Under
15
Age 15-39
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian
Age 40-64
Other
65.2
Age 65+
Hispanic
Race for Age Groups: Minnesota
100%
80%
60%
40%
78.6
82.3
Age Under
15
Age 15-39
91.6
96.2
Age 40-64
Age 65+
20%
0%
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian
Other
Hispanic
Race for Age Groups: Arizona
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
83
68
51
42
Age Under
15
White
Age 15-39
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian
Age 40-64
Other
Age 65+
Hispanic
Racial Generation Gaps
Difference in White Percent: Seniors minus Children
Source: William H. Frey analysis
25 and above
20 to 25
15 to 20
Below 15
State Growth, 2000-2010
Below 0%
0% -4%
5% - 9%
10% - 20%
20% +
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Changes in Congressional Seats
from 2010 Census
1
-1
-2
-1
-1
1
-1
1
-1 -1
-2
-1
1
1
1
4
-1
2
Source: William H. Frey analysis
-1
Hispanic Share of Population, 2010
Below 5%
5% - 9%
10% - 19%
20% - 34%
35%+
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Hispanic Percent of Growth
in States Gaining Seats from 2010 Census
70
63
60
51
Percent
50
50
48
40
32
26
30
23
20
20
10
Source: William H. Frey analysis
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