Three Americas
The Rising Significance of Regions
William H. Frey
University of Michigan
& Milken Institute
www.frey-demographer.org
Fastest Growing, 1990 - 2000
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Immigrant Magnet States
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Selected New Sunbelt and Old Sunbelt States
Growth 1980s and 1990s
Nevada
Colorado
Georgia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Florida
80s
Texas
California
Source: William H. Frey
90s
70
New Sunbelt, Melting Pot,
and Heartland States
New Sunbelt
Melting Pot
Heartland States
Source: William H. Frey,
Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States
Foreign Born
70%
Asian Language at Home
68%
Spanish at Home
76%
Mixed Marriages
51%
Native Born
37%
English at Home
34%
Source: William Frey.
Demographic Components, 1990s
California
New York
Texas
15
15
15
10.4
10
10.1
10
7.4
10
6.0
5.3
5
5
5
0
0
0
-5
-5
-5
-10
-10
-10
-7.2
4.1
3.3
-10.2
-15
-15
Immigration
Source: William Frey
-15
Domestic Migration
Natural Increase
Demographic Components, 1990s
Colorado
Georgia
15
15
15
12.2
8.6
10
10.0
10
8.1
5
5
1.9
Pennsylvania
10
5
1.6
0
0
0
-5
-5
-5
-10
-10
-10
-15
-15
-15
Immigration
Source: William Frey.
2.0
0.9
Domestic Migration
-2.1
Natural Increase
Immigration and Domestic Migratio
Census Day 2000 - July 1, 2001
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
Melting Pots
Immigration
New Sunbelt
Heartland
Domestic Migration
Immigrant Magnet Metros
90 - 99 Immigrants
1. New York -------------
1,408,543
2. Los Angeles ----------- 1,257,925
3. San Francisco --------494,189
4. Miami -----------------420,488
5. Chicago ----------------363,662
6. Washington -----------267,175
7. Houston ---------------214,262
8. Dallas-Fort ------------173,500
9. San Diego -------------159,691
Source: William H. Frey
Domestic Migrant Magnet Metros
90 - 99 Net Migration
1. Atlanta ---------------498,283
2. Phoenix --------------396,092
3. Las Vegas ------------394,331
4. Dallas ------------------ 235,611
5. Denver ----------------- 200,658
6. Portland, OR ----------- 198,896
7. Austin ------------------ 168,817
8. Orlando ---------------- 167,120
9. Tampa ----------------- 157,209
10. Charlotte -------------- 154,320
Source: William H. Frey
Hispanic Concentration
2000
Key
Source: William H Frey,
Below 12.5%
12.5% - 25.0%
Above 25.0%
1990 - 2000 Greatest Hispanic Gainers
1. Los Angeles
1,819,370
2. New York
992,185
3. Chicago
600,810
4. Dallas
594,836
5. Houston
575,098
6. Miami
501,543
Source: William H. Frey
Up- and Coming Hispanic Growth Magnets
2000 Populations > 50,000
% Growth
1. Greensboro
2. Charlotte
3. Raleigh
4. Atlanta
5. Las Vegas
6. Portland, OR
7. Orlando
8. Minn. -St. Paul
9. Reno
10. Grand Rapids
11. Salt Lake City
Source: William H. Frey
694
622
569
362
262
175
170
162
145
136
133
Asian Concentration
2000
Key
Source: William H Frey,
Below 4.3%
4.3% - 10.0%
Above 10.0%
1990 – 2000 Greatest Asian Gainers
1. New York
710,809
2. Los Angeles
611,201
3. San Francisco
554,326
Source: William H. Frey
Up- and Coming Asian Growth Magnets
2000 Populations > 50,000
% Growth
1. Las Vegas
2. Atlanta
3. Austin
4 . Orlando
5. Tampa
6. Phoenix
7. Dallas
8. Portland OR
9. Minn. - St. Paul
10. Denver
11.Miami
Source: William H. Frey,
286
200
175
171
149
149
133
119
118
115
113
Black Concentration
2000
Key
Source: William H Frey,
Below 12.6%
12.6% - 25.0%
Above 25.0%
1990 - 2000 Greatest Black Gainers
1. Atlanta
459,582
2. New York
450,725
3. Washington DC
358,727
4. Miami
241,492
5. Chicago
181,101
6. Dallas
176,293
7. Philadelphia
162,932
8. Houston
142,304
Source: William H. Frey,
1990 - 2000 Major Black Growth Centers
(Over 200,000 blacks and 30% growth)
% Growth
1. Orlando
2. Atlanta
3. Miami
4. Tampa
5. Charlotte
6. Columbus, OH
7. Jacksonville, FL
8. Boston
9. Raleigh
10. Dallas
Source: William H. Frey
62.2
61.9
43.4
36.8
34.7
34.6
34.3
33.8
33.1
31.7
White Concentration
2000
Key
Source: William H Frey
Below 69.1%
69.1% - 85.0%
Above 85.0%
1990 - 2000 Greatest White Decliners
1. Los Angeles
-843.065
2. New York
-679,790
3. San Francisco
-269,844
4. Philadelphia
-199,359
5. Miami
-118,506
6. Chicago
-93,794
7. San Diego
-84,448
8. Pittsburgh
-81,900
Source: William H. Frey,
1990 - 2000 Greatest White Gainers
1. Phoenix
2. Atlanta
3. Las Vegas
4. Denver
5. Dallas
6. Portland OR
7. Seattle
8. Minn.St. Paul
9. Austin
10. Raleigh
11. Charlotte
12. Nashville
Source: William H. Frey,
434,195
359,299
326,145
278,445
255,208
230,535
199,172
191,127
187,426
171,168
162,258
146,615
Fastest White Growth, 1990-2000
15 – 25%
Over 25%
Source: William H. Frey
White Dispersal to The New Sunbelt
North
South
West
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Immigrant Magnets
-4
Other Metros
-6
Source: William H. Frey,
Non-Metro
Greatest White Growth, 1990-2000
Growth
175%
110%
99%
99%
96%
85%
85%
84%
79%
79%
77%
76%
Source: William H. Frey,
County
Douglas, CO
Forsyth GA
Archuleta CO
Elbert CO
Park CO
Paulding CO
Boise ID
Henry GA
Custer CO
Loudoun VA
Summit WA
Washington WA
Metro Area
Denver
Atlanta
nonmet
nonmet
nonmet
Atlanta
nonmet
Atlanta
nonmet
Washington DC
nonmet
nonmet
City, Suburb, Nonmetro Residence, 2000
White
Non-White
11%
23%
23%
48%
41%
54%
City
Source: William H. Frey,
Suburb
Non Metro
White Growth, 1990-2000
Atlanta Metro Area
Gain: GT 50%
Gain:10 - 50%
Gain: 0 - 10%
Loss:
White Growth, 1990-2000
New York Metro Region
Gain: GT 50%
Gain:10 - 50%
Gain: 0 - 10%
Loss
White concern about terrorist attack
Survey 9/11
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
43.5
35.1
27.7
23.1
11.2
9.1
7.1
4.8
Large City
Suburb of
Large City
Small Town Rural Area
A Great Deal
Not at All
Source: William H. Frey analysis of ABC news/Washington post Poll
Foreign Born, 2000
Percent Foreign Born
LT 10%
10% - 15%
15% - 20%
GT 20%
Born in Other State, 2000
Percent Born in Other State
LT One Third
GT One Third
Born in Same State, 2000
Percent Born in Same State
LT 65%
GT 65%
1900-2000 California Transplants
U.S. vs. Foreign Origin
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Foreign Born
U.S. Born – Out of State
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
Children Speaking Spanish at
Home
20% and Over
10% to 20%
5% to 10%
Under 5%
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Families of Poverty Children
California
Michigan
6
8
25
47
45
Married Couples
69
Female Head
Male Head
States with Adult Dropout Gains
CA Education Shifts
Adults, 1990-2000
40
35
Percent Change
30
K-9 grade
25
20
9-11grade
HS grad
Some College
15
Bachelors
10
Postgrad
5
0
Education Attainment by Race
Los Angeles Metro
Age 25 - 64
White
Less than
High School
Black
HS Grad
Source: William Frey. Milken Institute
Asian
Some College
Hispanic
College Grads
States with Greatest Xer Growth
Source: William Frey. Milken Institute
States with Greatest Boomer Shares
Source: William Frey. Milken Institute
The Senior Explosion
Projected Senior Growth, 2000-2025
Percent Senior Growth
Over 100 %
81 % - 100 %
60% ~80%
60% and below
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
Melting Pot Metros
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
White
Black
Asian
Hispanic
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
-1,000,000
-2,000,000
City
Source: William Frey.
Suburb
North-Largely White-Black Metros
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
White
Black
Asian
Hispanic
100,000
0
-100,000
-200,000
-300,000
-400,000
-500,000
-600,000
City
Source: William Frey.
Suburb
South -Largely White-Black Metros
1,500,000
1,300,000
1,100,000
900,000
White
Black
Asian
Hispanic
700,000
500,000
300,000
100,000
-100,000
-300,000
City
Source: William Frey.
Suburb
City Growth by Household Type
25
20
15
10
Mrrd Cpl
5
Mw/chld
0
Sng/chld
-5
NonFam
-10
-15
-20
-25
Melting Pots
Source: William H. Frey
N-White Black
N-White
Ozzie and Harriet Cities
Circa 2000
1. Santa Ana, CA
2. Anaheim, CA
3. San Jose, CA
4. El Paso, TX
5. Virginia Beach, VA
6. Riverside, CA
7. Arlington, TX
8. Anchorage, AK
9. Fresno, CA
10. Colorado Springs, CO
Source: William Frey
42
32
30
30
29
28
28
27
25
25
Non-Family Households-Over 65
1. Pittsburgh, PA
2. St. Louis, MO
3. Miami, FL
4. Louisville, KY
5. Buffalo, NY
6. Philadelphia, PA
7. Baltimore, MD
8. Cincinnati, OH
9. Cleveland, OH
10. Toledo, OH
Source: William Frey.
14
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
Los Angeles - Race Profiles by Age
Under 15
15-64
65+
16.8%
31.1%
55.2%
white
Source: William Frey.
black
Asian/Other
Hispanic
Houston - Race Profiles by Age
Under 15
15-64
65+
18.8%
31.8%
56.3%
white
Source: William Frey.
black
Asian/Other
Hispanic
Detroit - Race Profiles by Age
Under 15
15-64
65+
5.5%
11.0%
20.2%
white
Source: William Frey.
black
Asian/Other
Hispanic
Pittsburgh - Race Profiles by Age
Under 15
15-64
65+
49.8%
68.5%
white
Source: William Frey.
black
Asian/Other
77.9%
Hispanic
Atlanta- Race Profiles by Age
Under 15
15-64
65+
15.8%
34.9%
white
Source: William Frey.
black
Asian/Other
35.2%
Hispanic
Salt Lake City - Race Profiles by Age
Under 15
15-64
65+
57.2%
71.6%
white
Source: William Frey.
black
Asian/Other
88.9%
Hispanic
Los Angeles – 2025
Age Structure by Race-Ethnicity
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
0- 9
l0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69
Hispanics&Asians
Whites&Blacks
70+
Detroit – 2025
Age Structure by Race-Ethnicity
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
0- 9
l0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69
Hispanics&Asians
Whites&Blacks
70+
Useful Websites
www.census.gov
www.CensusScope.org
www.ameristat.org