Global, National, and Regional Effects of
Climate Change on Plants and Animals
Dr. David Karowe
Department of Biological Sciences
Western Michigan University
Overview of this evening’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a.
b.
c.
d.
Temperature
Moisture
Phenology (seasonal timing)
Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
What’s been happening to Earth’s temperature?
Temperature Change (oC)
Since 1900, Earth has warmed ~ 0.8o C
10 warmest years in history:
2010, 2005, 2007, 2009, 1998*,
2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, and 2008
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Temperature difference relative to 1950-1980
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/
Can climate change be due to “natural variation”?
Since 1900, energy increase from greenhouse gasses
is about 20 times energy increase from the sun1
Solar Irradiance
For the last 30 years, solar irradiance has been
decreasing2
Since 1900, natural factors would have caused
a slight cooling3
Since 1950, Ohio has warmed by ~0.8 oC
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
Last year, Ohio was ~0.75o C above the 1951-1980 mean
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
This summer, Ohio was much warmer than normal
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Statewidetrank/201106-201108.gif
Overview of this evening’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
Since 1900, no consistent trend in global precipitation4
But severe storms have become more common5
43% increase in Ohio since 1948
59% increase in Cleveland
Severe storms cause flooding, erosion, disease
This year, Ohio had its wettest April and 5th wettest
February on record
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/maps
As a result, Ohio experienced flooding this spring
Overview of this evening’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
Many plant species now leaf out and flower
significantly earlier6
- e.g. of 385 British species, 16% now flower significantly
earlier than in 1954-1990
- only 3% flowered significantly later
Earlier
Later
In Ohio, budburst for white oak is now 23 days earlier
than around 1900
May 3 → April 10
(data provided by Kellen Callinger, OSU)
In Trumbull County, wild pansy has been tracking climate
change since 1900 (7 days earlier per 1o C warming)
- but toothwort has not
Viola rafinesquii
Cardamine diphylla
- overall, 34 of 56 species show significant flowering
advancement
(data provided by Kellen Callinger, OSU)
Plant speices that have been tracking climate change
have fared better than species that have not
- in Thoreau Woods, major declines for species without
phenological advancement over the last 150 years7
e.g. asters, anemones,
ericales, violets, roses,
lilies, dogwoods,
orchids, and mints
Days per decade
In general, animals are speeding up more than plants8
Increased ecological asynchrony
is likely to cause problems
Butterflies: 3.7 days/decade
Herbs, grasses, and shrubs: 1.1 days/decade
Trees: 3.3 days/decade
Overview of this evening’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
Few changes in geographic ranges have been
documented for plants, other than altitudinal shifts
e.g. the hardwood-conifer transition zone on Vermont
mountains moved upslope ~100 meters from 1962-20059
sugar maple, beech,
and yellow birch have
replaced red spruce,
balsam fir, and paper
birch
More range changes have been documented
for animals
- many taxonomic groups are expanding polewards10
What does the future hold?
Overview of this evening’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
Earth is expected to warm by at least 2-4o C by 210011
“Business as usual”
Alternate energy
sources
4o
2o
0.6o
Zero emissions
CO2 has an atmospheric residence time of >100 years
When Earth was 5o cooler, Michigan was covered
with ice12
Temperature rise is likely to persist for >1,000 years
after we stop emitting greenhouse gasses13
Predicted warming in Ohio of 3.5-4.0o C by 210014
What will happen to extreme temperature events?
Globally, more and stronger heat waves15
Future summers are very likely to be hotter than any
experienced thus far16
Ohio would experience many more days above 90o F17
Ohio would experience many more days above 90o F17
Ohio would experience many more days above 90o F17
Cleveland would experience ~60 days over 90o F18
- and about 21 days over 100o F
And at least one heat wave per summer like the one
that killed ~700 people in Chicago in 199518
Overview of this evening’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
More severe rainstorms19
But also more and stronger droughts19
- global land area in extreme drought is predicted
to increase from 1% to 30% 20
Summer rainfall predicted to decrease throughout U.S.17
Breadbasket
could become
largely
unsuitable for
agriculture
By the end of the century, Ohio summers may feel like
those of current-day Arkansas
http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/winmigrating/glwinmig_oh.html
Overview of this evening’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
What is the likely future fate of species?
Climate Envelope Modeling is used to predict future
changes in geographic range and population size
1. Determine the levels of important climate variables
(usually temperature and precipitation) that occur within
the species’ current geographic range
2. Use climate model(s) to predict where those levels will exist
in the future (= future suitable habitat)
3. Make an assumption about dispersal (usually “full” or
“none”)
4. Compare current and future ranges to infer population
increase or decrease
Woodland horsetail is predicted to decline due to
decreased geographic range21
current
future
Wild peony is predicted to increase
current
future
Fate of European cohosh is unclear, since it must
migrate to reach its future habitat
?
On average, forest herbs will have to move ~6 mi/year
- but most show current rate of ~ 5 feet/year
- and dispersal routes are limited by lack of European forests
Required range shifts
Forest cover
≥ 35% of these species face a moderate/high extinction risk21
Even if suitable future habitat exists, species may not
be able to get there in time to avoid extinction
?
Most studies predict many more losers than winners
5-25% extinction of Australian Banksia species22
Huge losses are predicted for 5,200 African
plant species, even with full dispersal23
- 40% species extinction by 2085
- population decline for 80-97% of species
In Ohio, sugar maple is predicted to almost disappear
with climate change24
Future
Current
FutureHigh
Low
10 of the 20 most abundant Ohio tree species are
predicted to decline by at least 50%
-100%
White pine
-100%
Bigtooth aspen
-91%
Sugar maple
-89%
Black cherry
-79%
-78%
White ash
American beech
Three of the 20 most abundant Ohio tree species are
predicted to increase
Black gum
+14%
Black oak
+112%
Post oak
+150-fold
Several rare tree species are predicted to increase
dramatically in Ohio
Winged elm
+6-fold
Sweetgum
+43-fold
Shortleaf pine
+104-fold
- and many southern species are predicted to arrive
Ohio forests are predicted to change fairly dramatically25
Future
Future
Current
High
Low
Major loss of Amazon rainforest with 2.5o rise (?)26
- lost carbon storage
Animals are also likely to be affected by climate change
African mammals are likely to be adversely affected
Of 227 species, 20% are predicted to be extinct by 2080
even with full dispersal27
- 40% extinction with no dispersal
Two areas of highest species loss
Congo Basin
Kalahari region
Species lost
European boreal bats are likely to be adversely affected28
- 100% of boreal and temperate species show range loss
Adverse effects also for European Mediterranean bats
- 71% of Mediterranean species show range loss
Most Western Hemisphere amphibian species are
predicted to be adversely affected by climate change29
of 413 species:
⅔ lose >50% of range
⅜ lose >90% of range
area of
greatest
vulnerability
Globally, lizard species are predicted to experience up to
20% extinction by 208030
- tropical species are more vulnerable
Local
Birds in high northern latitudes are particularly
vulnerable to habitat loss due to climate change31
27 northern species
lose, on average,
74-84% of suitable
habitat by 2080
White-winged
Crossbill
Eurasian
Dotterel
Montane bird species are also highly vulnerable32
- globally, 18% of 1,009 species are predicted to lose at
least half of their geographic range by 2100
32%
38%
The U.S. Forest Service has made predictions about the
fate of 129 Ohio bird species by 2100:33
Current
Future
A rea-weighted Incidence
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1
6
11
16
21 26
31
36 41
46
51 56
61
66 71
76
81 86
91
96 101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136
Species
80 species (62%) are predicted to decrease
49 species (38%) are predicted to increase
36 Ohio bird species are predicted to decline by >90%
-100%
Savannah
Sparrow
-99%
Bank Swallow
-99%
House Wren
-98%
Tree Swallow
-99%
-99%
Veery
Bobolink
-98%
Willow
Flycatcher
-96%
Cedar
Waxwing
Another 19 species are predicted to decline by 50-90%
-89%
-88%
song sparrow
Yellow Warbler
-74%
Cerulean Warbler
-82%
-81%
Blue-winged
Warbler
-69%
Rose-breasted
Grosbeak
American
Redstart
-56%
Ovenbird
-53%
American
Goldfinch
32 species are predicted to increase by >50%
+660-fold
+113-fold
+104-fold
Chuck-will’s
Widow*
Black
Vulture*
Loggerhead
Shrike*
+5-fold
Summer
Tanager
+103%
Northern Bobwhite
+77%
Yellow-billed
Cuckoo
+7-fold
Pine Warbler*
+58%
Carolina Wren
10 new species are predicted to occur in Ohio
Brown-headed
Nuthatch
Mississippi
Kite
Little Blue
Heron
Snowy Egret
Scissor-tailed
Flycatcher
Painted Bunting
Cattle Egret
Bachman’s
Sparrow
Globally, if we allow Earth to warm by 3o C,
20-50% of species may be committed to extinction26
Overview of this evening’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
Are there any solutions?
Yes!
Unfortunately, energy conservation is not a solution
- really just delays the inevitable
48 mpg
Emissions reductions need to be rapid and large
- 80% reduction by 2050 to avoid worst scenarios34
Urgent need for alternate energy sources
solar
wind
A solar array 100 x 100 miles could provide all of US
electricity needs today35
Wind power could supply 16 times current U.S.
electricity demand36
Globally, can wind and solar supply enough
energy?36,37
10,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2100
8,000
Today
Energy (EJ/yr)
12,000
0
Global
Demand
Wind
Potential
Solar
Potential
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