Changes in Global Climate and Potential
Impacts on Wildlife and Habitat
David Karowe
Department of Biological Sciences
Western Michigan University
(citations provided at end of talk)
Overview of this morning’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a.
b.
c.
d.
Temperature
Moisture
Phenology (seasonal timing)
Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
What’s been happening to Earth’s temperature?
Temperature Change (oC)
Since 1900, Earth has warmed ~ 0.8o C
10 warmest years in history:
2010, 2005, 2007, 2009, 1998*,
2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, and 2008
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
1
Temperature difference relative to 1950-1980
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/
Can climate change be due to “natural variation”?
Since 1900, energy increase from greenhouse gasses
is about 20 times energy increase from the sun1
Solar Irradiance
For the last 30 years, solar irradiance has been
decreasing2
Since 1900, natural factors would have caused
a slight cooling3
2
Since 1950, Ohio has warmed by ~0.8 oC
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
This summer, Ohio was much warmer than normal
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Statewidetrank/201106-201108.gif
Overview of this morning’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
3
Since 1900, no consistent trend in global precipitation4
Droughts have increased worldwide since 19505
In late September, 43% of U.S. was in drought
Sept 27, 2011
South central states experienced “Exceptional Drought”
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/archive.html
4
Right now, 41% of U.S. is in drought
Sept
Dec 6,
27,2011
2011
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/archive.html
Severe rainstorms have also become more common6
43% increase in Ohio since 1948
71% increase in Columbus
Severe storms cause flooding, erosion, disease
5
In 2011, Ohio had its wettest spring on record
Spring
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/maps
As a result, Ohio experienced flooding this spring
And there was extensive flooding along Mississippi
Tunica, Mississippi
6
Ohio also had its wettest fall on record
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/maps
Overview of this morning’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
Many plant species now leaf out and flower
significantly earlier7
- e.g. of 385 British species, 16% now flower significantly
earlier than in 1954-1990
- only 3% flowered significantly later
Earlier
Later
7
In Ohio, budburst for white oak is now 23 days earlier
than around 1900
May 3 → April 10
(data provided by Kellen Callinger, OSU)
In Trumbull County, wild pansy has been tracking climate
change since 1900 (7 days earlier per 1o C warming)
- but toothwort has not
Viola rafinesquii
Cardamine diphylla
- overall, 34 of 56 species show significant flowering
advancement
(data provided by Kellen Callinger, OSU)
Plant species that have been tracking climate change
have fared better than species that have not
- in Thoreau Woods over the last 150 years, major
declines for species without phenological advancement8
Ericaceae
Rosaceae
Cornaceae
8
Among birds, short-distance migrants have responded
more to climate change than long-distance migrants
- among 32 passerines in Massachusetts, species wintering
in the U.S., Central America, and the Caribbean tend to
arrive earlier in warmer years9
C. A. and Carib.
S.A.
U.S.
- but species that
winter in South
America are not
arriving earlier
And bird species that have been tracking climate
change have fared better than species that have not
- e.g. 100 European species since 199010
Stock Dove
Black-throated Loon
This is also true among populations of a single species
- Dutch Pied Flycatchers with little phenological advance
in egg laying date have declined by up to 90%11
- but populations with
much phenological
advance have declined
by <10%
- probably due to mismatch with timing of major food
resource (caterpillars)
9
Days per decade
In general, animals are speeding up more than plants12
Increased ecological asynchrony is likely
to cause problems for some wildlife
Birds: 3.7 days/decade
Butterflies: 3.7 days/decade
Herbs, grasses, and shrubs: 1.1 days/decade
Overview of this morning’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
Few changes in geographic ranges have been
documented for plants, other than altitudinal shifts
e.g. the hardwood-conifer transition zone on Vermont
mountains moved upslope ~100 meters from 1962-200513
10
More range changes have been documented
for animals
- in Britain, many taxonomic groups are expanding polewards14
What does the future hold?
Overview of this morning’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
11
Earth is expected to warm by at least 2-4o C by 210015
“Business as usual”
Alternate energy
sources
4o
2o
0.6o
Zero emissions
CO2 has an atmospheric residence time of >100 years
When Earth was 5o cooler, much of Ohio was
covered with ice16
Temperature rise is likely to persist for >1,000 years
after we stop emitting greenhouse gasses17
12
Predicted warming in Ohio of 3.5-4.0o C by 210018
What will happen to extreme temperature events?
Future summers are very likely to be hotter than
any experienced thus far19
By 2100, 70-100% of Ohio summers are likely to be
hotter than any experienced thus far19
13
Ohio is likely to experience many more days
over 90o F20
Cincinnati could experience ~85 days over 90o F21
- and about 29 days over 100o F
And at least one heat wave per summer like the one
that killed ~700 people in Chicago in 199521
14
Overview of this morning’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
More severe rainstorms22
But also more and stronger droughts22
- global land area in “Extreme Drought” is predicted
to increase from 1% to 30% 23
15
Summer rainfall predicted to decrease throughout U.S.20
- decrease of
5-10% in Ohio
By the end of the century, Ohio summers may feel like
those of current-day Arkansas
http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/winmigrating/glwinmig_oh.html
Overview of this morning’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
16
What is the likely future fate of species?
Climate Envelope Modeling is used to predict future
changes in geographic range and population size
1. Determine the levels of important climate variables
(usually temperature and precipitation) that occur within
the species’ current geographic range
2. Use climate model(s) to predict where those levels will exist
in the future (= future suitable habitat)
3. Make an assumption about dispersal (usually “full” or
“none”)
4. Compare current and future ranges to infer population
increase or decrease
Woodland horsetail is predicted to decline due to
decreased geographic range24
current
future
Wild peony is predicted to increase24
current
future
17
Fate of European cohosh is unclear, since it must
migrate to reach its future habitat24
?
On average, forest herbs will have to move ~6 mi/year
- but most show current rate of ~ 5 feet/year
- and dispersal routes are limited by lack of European forests
Required range shifts
Forest cover
≥ 35% of these species face a moderate/high extinction risk24
Even if suitable future habitat exists, species may not
be able to get there in time to avoid extinction
?
18
This is probably the worst time in Earth’s history
for wildlife to experience rapid climate change
- because humans have fragmented landscapes
Humans have impacted ~75% of Earth’s land surface
(red = impacted)
- most of remaining 25% is desert or Arctic
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/human_impact_year_2002_miller_cylindrical_projection
Land use change has transformed Ohio’s landscape
?
- especially in
western Ohio
(images courtesy of Bill Stanley and August Froehlich)
19
Many types of habitat fragmentation have occurred
(images courtesy of Bill Stanley and August Froehlich)
Dispersal obstacles will differ for different wildlife species
In Ohio, sugar maple is predicted to almost disappear25
Future Low
Current
Future High
20
10 of the 20 most abundant Ohio tree species are
predicted to decline by at least 50%25
-100%
White pine
-100%
Bigtooth aspen
-91%
Sugar maple
-89%
Black cherry
-79%
-78%
White ash
American beech
Three of the 20 most abundant Ohio tree species are
predicted to increase25
Black gum
+14%
Black oak
+112%
Post oak
+150-fold
Several rare tree species are predicted to increase
dramatically in Ohio25
Winged elm
+6-fold
Sweetgum
+43-fold
Shortleaf pine
+104-fold
- and many southern species are predicted to arrive
21
Ohio forests are predicted to change fairly dramatically26
Current
Future Low
Future High
- wildlife that prefer
oak/hickory forests
may benefit
The U.S. Forest Service has also made predictions about
the fate of 129 Ohio bird species by 210027
Current
Future
A rea-weighted Inciden ce
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1
6
11
16
21 26
31
36 41
46
51 56
61
66 71
76
81 86
91
96 101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136
Species
80 species (62%) are predicted to decrease
49 species (38%) are predicted to increase
36 Ohio bird species are predicted to decline by >90%27
-100%
Savannah
Sparrow
-99%
Bank Swallow
-99%
House Wren
-98%
Tree Swallow
-99%
-99%
Veery
Bobolink
-98%
Willow
Flycatcher
-96%
Cedar
Waxwing
22
Another 19 species are predicted to decline by 50-90%27
-89%
-88%
song sparrow
Yellow Warbler
-74%
-82%
Blue-winged
Warbler
-69%
American
Redstart
-56%
Rose-breasted
Grosbeak
Cerulean Warbler
-81%
Ovenbird
-53%
American
Goldfinch
32 species are predicted to increase by >50%27
+660-fold
+113-fold
+104-fold
Chuck-will’s
Widow*
Black
Vulture*
Loggerhead
Shrike*
+5-fold
Summer
Tanager
+103%
Northern Bobwhite
+77%
Yellow-billed
Cuckoo
+7-fold
Pine Warbler*
+58%
Carolina Wren
10 new species are predicted to occur in Ohio27
Brown-headed
Nuthatch
Mississippi
Kite
Little Blue
Heron
Snowy Egret
Scissor-tailed
Flycatcher
Painted Bunting
Cattle Egret
Bachman’s
Sparrow
23
Globally, climate change is likely to adversely affect
many types of wildlife
African mammals are likely to be adversely affected28
Of 227 species, 20% are predicted to be extinct by 2080
even with full dispersal
- 40% extinction with no dispersal
European boreal bats are likely to be adversely affected29
- 100% of boreal and temperate species show range loss
24
Most Western Hemisphere amphibian species are
predicted to be adversely affected by climate change30
of 413 species:
⅔ lose >50% of range
⅜ lose >90% of range
area of
greatest
vulnerability
Globally, lizard species are predicted to experience up to
20% local extinction by 208031
- tropical species are more vulnerable
Local
Birds in high northern latitudes are particularly
vulnerable to habitat loss due to climate change32
27 northern species
lose, on average,
74-84% of suitable
habitat by 2080
White-winged
Crossbill
Eurasian
Dotterel
25
Montane bird species are also highly vulnerable
- globally, 18% of 1,009 species are predicted to lose at
least half of their geographic range by 210033
In Peru, altitudinal migration among 55 bird species
appears to be lagging behind climate change34
- probably constrained by rate of vegetation shifts
Globally, if we allow Earth to warm by 3o C,
20-50% of species may be committed to extinction35
26
Overview of this morning’s talk
1. Observed changes since 1900
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. Phenology (seasonal timing)
d. Geographic ranges
2. Predicted future changes
a. Temperature
b. Moisture
c. The fate of species
3. Solutions
Are there any solutions?
Yes!
Unfortunately, energy conservation alone is not a solution
50 mpg
- really just delays the inevitable
27
Emissions reductions need to be rapid and large
- 80% reduction by 2050 to avoid worst scenarios36
Urgent need for alternate energy sources
solar
wind
Wind power could supply 16 times current U.S.
electricity demand using only onshore turbines37
- Ohio can supply 5.4 times its current use
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is very promising
Central tower
Parabolic trough
28
A CSP solar array 100 x 100 miles could provide
all of U.S. electricity needs today38
- excess energy captured during the day could be stored
as heat and used to produce electricity at night
A small portion of the Sahara desert could supply all
of Europe’s electricity (and the world’s)39
Globally, can wind and solar supply enough energy?40
≈
10,000
8,000
4,000
2,000
2100
6,000
Today
Energy (EJ/yr)
12,000
0
Global
Demand
Wind
Potential
Solar
Potential
29
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31