(Illegal) Immigration:
Global and National Context
and Prospects for Reform
Presented by
Judith Gans
Immigration Policy Project Director
Topics
† Global and national context
† Illegal Immigration
„ Economic impacts
„ Fiscal Costs and contributions
„ National security
† Policy debates and prospects for reform
Immigration: A World-Wide Phenomenon
† Cause and consequence of global economic
integration
† UN estimates 190 to 200 million immigrants …
≈ 3.3% of the world's population
† Global remittances estimated at $150 billion
per year
Source: Papademetriou, Demetrios G., “The Global Struggle with Illegal Immigration: No End in Sight”, Washington
DC: Migration Policy Institute, September 1, 2005.
16.0
35,000
14.0
30,000
12.0
25,000
10.0
20,000
8.0
15,000
6.0
10,000
4.0
5,000
2.0
0
0.0
Percent
40,000
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
04
Number (000s)
Foreign-Born Population
Number
% of Total Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Categories of Foreign Born
Naturalized
Citizens
11.3 million (32%)
(2004)
Legal Permanent
Residents
10.4 million (29%)
Refugee Arrivals
2.5 million (7%)
Temporary Legal
Residents
1.2 million (3%)
* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey.
Unauthorized
Immigrants
10.3 million (29%)
Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”,
Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
U.S. Laws Limit Economic Migration
† Architecture of family reunification
† Economic migration laws seek to:
„ Minimize competition with U.S. workers
„ Provide for scarce labor
Demographic Realities
† Native-born population growing slowly and
ageing
† 20% of U.S. births occur to foreign-born
mothers
† Directly and indirectly, immigration accounts
for ≈ 60% of U.S. population growth
† Between 1990-2004, immigrants accounted
for over 50% of growth in the civilian labor
force
Demographic Realities
Example:
Between 1996 and 2000 (Economic boom)
„ U.S. economy generated 14.3 million new jobs
„ U.S. population increased by 12.3 million people
including immigration
Strong ‘pull’ factor
Political Challenge
‘Immigration’
increasingly equated with
‘Illegal Immigration’
Causes of Illegal Immigration…
1. Global economic integration
2. Inadequate provision for legal economic
immigration
3. Failure to sanction employers for hiring
unauthorized immigrants due to:
i.
No reliable means for verifying employment eligibility
ii. Limited funding of interior enforcement;
iii. Limited political will due to U.S. labor needs
Most Unauthorized Immigrants
From Latin America
(Share of estimated 10.3 unauthorized immigrants)
Europe & Canada
0.6 million (6%)
Africa & Other
0.4 million (4%)
Asia
1 million (10%)
Other Latin America
2.5 million (24%)
Mexico
5.9 million (56%)
* Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”,
Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Illegal Immigration Matters…
- To immigrants themselves
- To the United States
Immigration Status Matters to
Employment
40%
35%
33%
35%
30%
27%
25%
20%
17%
15%
16%
13%
15%
10%
10%
10%
8%
6%
6%
3%
5%
1%
0%
Service
Occupations
Construction &
Extractive
Production,
Repair &
Installation
Native-born Workers
Sales &
Adm inistration
Managem ent, Transportation
& Moving
Business &
Industries
Professional
Farm ing
Unauthorized Workers
Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”,
Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Immigration Status Matters to Income
(Incomes, 2003 Family Size 2004)
$47,700 $47,800
$27,400
2.34
$24,300
2.29
$20,400
1.96
$12,000
Average Family Income
Native-born Families
Average Family Size
Income Per Person
Legal Immigrant Families
Unauthorized Families
Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”,
Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Immigration Status Matters to
Educational Attainment of Children
(Share of each group’s 18-24 year old population, 2004)
70%
80%
73%
70%
60%
49%
48%
50%
40%
21%
30%
20%
11%
10%
0%
High School Dropouts
Native-Born
High School Graduates with Some
College
Legal Immigrants
Unauthorized Immigrants
Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics”,
Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June 2005. www.pewhispanic.org
Immigration Status Matters to
Net Fiscal Impacts
† Illegal immigrants tend to be low-skilled
† Low-skilled immigrants:
„ Earn relatively low wages
„ Contribute relatively little in taxes
† Net fiscal impacts depend both on:
„ Size and mix of immigrant population
„ Generosity of state public services
† Illegal status compounds impacts
Immigration Status Matters to
National Security
† Failure to control borders:
„
„
„
„
Undermines sovereignty & rule of law
Creates national security risks
Undermines formulation of coherent policy
Makes the border a dangerous place
“It is difficult to open the front door without
closing the back door.”
Enforcement Has Focused on the Border
Spending by Type of Enforcement: 1985 - 2002
3,000,000
2,842,000
Dollars (000s)
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,633,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
700,000
458,000
500,000
192,000
0
109,000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Border Control
Interior Investigations
Detention & Removal/Intelligence
Source: Migration Policy Institute analysis of data from US Department of Justice Immigration and Naturalization Service, Budget
Requests to Congress, 1985-2002; and Budget of the United States Government, Appendix, 1985-2003.
Enforcement Challenge
† Ambivalence about enforcement
„ Focus at border while interior enforcement is minimal
„ No reliable system for verifying immigration
† Ambivalence about controlling immigration
– control modulated through
„ Limits to visible categories
„ Adjustments to numbers of temporary visas
„ Adjustments to enforcement intensity
Politics of Reform
† System understood to be broken
† Political stalemate:
„ “Enforcement before reform” vs. “Reform in order to
enforce”
† What to do with 11 million unauthorized
immigrants?
„ “Earned regularization” vs. “Amnesty”
Temporary Worker Program
† One mechanism for economic immigration
† Debates over existing unauthorized
population
† Limited provision for permanent economic
immigration
‘Importing’ Temporary Labor
is Complicated
† Workers vs. citizens
† Facilitates:
„ Limiting rights
„ Social divisions
„ Inherent power imbalance
Politics of Immigration Debates
Immigrant Admission Should Be
Immigrant Rights
Should Be
Expansive
Expanded or Maintained
Cosmopolitans
Edward Kennedy (D-MA)
Restrictive
Free-Market Expansionists
Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
Restricted
Nationalist Egalitarians
Diane Feinstein (D-CA)
Classic Exclusionists
Tom Tancredo (R-CO)
*From Tichenor, Daniel, Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America, Princeton University Press,
Princeton University, 2002.
Major Themes and Conclusions
† Today’s immigration reflects a global
economy
† Economic and fiscal impacts are complex
† Current laws reflects complex political
cross-currents and interests
† Reform will be difficult and political voice
is uneven