Demographic Change
How the US is Coping with Aging,
Immigration, and Other Challenges
William H. Frey
Brookings Institution
University of Michigan
www.frey-demographer.org
US: Total and Age 65+ Growth,
1970- 2030
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970-80
1980-90
Source: William H. Frey analysis
1990-00
2000-10
Total
Age 65+
2010-20
2020-30
US Immigrant Population,
1970 - 2005
40
millions
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
1980
Source: William H. Frey analysis
1990
2000
2005
Share of Population
Growing New Minorities,
2000- 30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Hispanics
2000
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asians
2010
2020
2030
Total Fertility Rate
United States
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Germany
Japan
Source: United Nations
2.05
1.89
1.82
1.38
1.36
1.27
Life Expectancy
Japan
France
Italy
Germany
United Kingdom
United States
Source: United Nations
82.6
80.7
80.5
79.4
79.4
78.2
Immigration Rate (per 1000)
United States
Italy
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Japan
Source: United Nations
3.9
2.6
2.1
1.8
1.6
0.4
Projected Growth, 2006-2050
United States
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
Source: United Nations
40%
14%
5%
-5%
-9%
-21%
Percent Aged 65+
Japan
Germany
Italy
France
United Kingdom
United States
Source: United Nations
20%
19%
19%
16%
16%
12%
-1.0
Source: United Nations
US
Japan
2045-2050
2040-2045
2035-2040
2030-2035
2025-2030
2020-2025
2015-2020
2010-2015
2005-2010
2000-2005
1995-2000
1990-1995
1985-1990
1980-1985
1975-1980
1970-1975
1965-1970
1960-1965
1955-1960
1950-1955
Population Growth
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-10.0
Source: United Nations
US
Japan
2045-2050
2040-2045
2035-2040
2030-2035
2025-2030
2020-2025
2015-2020
2010-2015
2005-2010
2000-2005
1995-2000
1990-1995
1985-1990
1980-1985
1975-1980
1970-1975
1965-1970
1960-1965
1955-1960
1950-1955
Labor Force Growth
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
Age Dependency
Persons age 65+ per 100 persons age 16-64
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
US
Source: United Nations
Japan
2050-
2040-
2030-
2020-
2010-
2000-
1990-
1980-
1970-
1960-
0.0
1950-
10.0
US Growth by Age 2000-10
60
49
50
40
30
19
20
3
10
10
16
14
4
0
-10
-9
-20
0- 5
Source: William
H. Frey
15-24 25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64 65-74
75+
Population Changes in the
Next 3 Decades
Young Elderly
Old Elderly
(65 - 74)
(75 +)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2000 - 2010
Frey
Source: William H. Frey
2010 - 2020
2020- 2030
Population Changes in the
Next 3 Decades
Empty Nesters
Pre-Elderly
(45 - 54)
(55 - 64)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
2000 - 2010
Frey
Source: William H. Frey
2010 - 2020
2020- 2030
Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife
55%
% With 3+ Kids
30%
21%
% Not Married
36%
50%
%Women Not Working
23%
38%
% HS Dropout
14%
0%
10%
20%
Boomers
Source: William H. Frey
30%
40%
Parents
50%
60%
Household Types: Older Age Groups
100%
80%
20.7
52.1
37.2
60%
40%
20%
0%
Age 65-74
Age 75-84
Female Head NonFamilies
Female Head Families
Married Couples
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Age 85+
Male Head NonFamilies
Male Head Families
Growth by Age, 2000-10
70
60
50
Under 25
25-44
45-64
65+
40
30
20
10
0
-10
California
Source: William Frey,
Nevada
Michigan
2000-10 Growth: Under Age 35
GT 7%
1% - 7%
LT 1%
Source: William H. Frey
Percent 65+ population for States, 2005
13.4% & above
12% -13%
11% -11.9%
under 12%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Rates of Migration by Age
35
30
Per 100
25
20
15
10
5
0
9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4
<5 5- 0-1 5-1 0-2 5-2 0-3 5-3 0-4 5-4 0-5 5-5 0-6 5-6 0-7 5-7 0-8 85+
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Arizona Projections:
Aging in Place and Migration
25
percent growth
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 203505
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Aging in Place
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Net Migration
New York Projections:
Aging in Place and Migration
25
percent growth
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 203505
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Aging in Place
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Net Migration
US Federal Budget Allocation as
Percent of Projected Federal Revenue
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
60
55
56
67
121
91
56
61
2006
2010
Health Care and Social Security
Source: Dowell Myers, Boomers and Seniors
2020
2030
All Other Expenditures
Immigrants in the US, 1900 2005
in millions
40
35.1
35
30
25
20
15
14.2
9.6
10
5
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
Immigrant Share of US
Population
16
14
14.7
12
12.1
10
8
6
4
4.7
2
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Source: US Census sources
Types of US Foreign Born, 2005
Legal
Temporary
3%
Undocumented
30%
Legal
Permanent
67%
Source: Jeffrey Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
Legal Permanent Immigrants,
2003-05
Other
17%
Employment
19%
FamilyTies
64%
Source: Population Reference Bureau
Immigrant Origins
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Legal
Other
Undocumented
Asia
Source: Population Reference Bureau, Pew Hispanic Center
Latin America
Education: Immigrants vs Natives
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
>8 Grade
9-12
Grade
HS
Diploma
Some
College
foreign born
Source: Congressional Budget Office Analysis
College
Diploma
native born
Post
College
Immigrant Education:
Mexican vs. Other Origins
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
>8 Grade
9-12
Grade
HS
Diploma
Mexican
Some
College
College
Diploma
Rest of World
Source: Congressional Budget Office Analysis
Post
College
Hispanics: Less than High School
60.0%
54%
50.0%
40.0%
32%
30.0%
15%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Ist Generation
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2nd Generation
Total US
Hispanics: College Graduates
28%
30.0%
25.0%
18%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
10%
5.0%
0.0%
Ist Generation
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2nd Generation
Total US
Asians: College Graduates
60.0%
51%
53%
50.0%
40.0%
28%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Ist Generation
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2nd Generation
Total US
Most Prevalent Jobs
Native Born
Foreign Born
Admin Support
Management
Sales
Education
Production
Construction
Admin Support
Sales
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Immigrants - Prevalent Jobs
Mexican
Rest of World
Construction
Production
Maintenance
Transportation
Sales
Admin Support
Management
Production
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Undocumented Prevalent Jobs
Cooks
Construction
Maids/Housekeeping
Maintenance
Agriculture
Source: Jeffrey Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
Long Term Fiscal Impact of One Migrant
US dollars
$150
$105
$100
$82
$76
$93
$50
$0
-$30
-$50
-$100
-$89
Not High School
High School
Immigrant
Source: Population Reference Bureau
Some College
Descendent
Immigrant Magnet States
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
State Immigrant Growth, 1990-2005
200% or more growth
Btn 100% and 199% growth
Traditional immigrant gateway
All other states
Source: William H. Frey
Immigrants vs Natives: 2005
Poverty and Near
Poverty**
Hispanics: Poverty
and Near Poverty
Blue Collar
Workers*
Hispanics: Blue
Collar Workers
0
10
20
30
40
50
Immigrants in New Destinations.
Immigrants in Traditional Magnets
US Native Born
Source: William H. Frey
60
70
80
Where Undocumented Dominate
Foreign Born
GT 40%
Other
Source: Jeffery Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
Desired US Immigration Levels
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
33.6
29.3
7.8
14.1
47.1
5.2
56.8
6.2
Traditional Magnet New Destination
States
States
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005
Present
Increased
Decreased
Don't Know
3 Year Work Permits for Illegal
Immigrants?
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
24.7
39.1
Allowed
Not Allowed
54.5
71.9
6.4
3.4
Traditional
Magnet States
New Destination
States
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005
Don't Know
US Race-Ethnicity
14.4
1.5
0.6
4.4
12.1
67.1
White
Black
Asian
Am Indian
Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
Mixed Race
Hispanic
Natives and Recent Immigrants
Recent Foreign Born
Native Born
7.3
1.0
55.8
76.3
White
Black
Asian
15.9
20.4
Am Indian
Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
Mixed Race
Hispanic
US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050
450,000
400,000
350,000
50.1%
300,000
Black
250,000
200,000
White
Asian
69.1%
150,000
Hispani
c
100,000
50,000
0
2000
Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
2050
New Demographic Regions
„
Melting Pot America
„
The New Sunbelt
„
The Heartland
Source: William H. Frey
New Sunbelt, Melting Pot,
and Heartland States
New Sunbelt
Melting Pot
Heartland States
Source: William H. Frey
Demographic Components, 2000-2005
(Rates per 1000)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
32.7
28.3
19.5
Immigratio
n
Domestic
Migration
10.1
-6.6
-8.1
Melting Pot
Source: William Frey
New Sunbelt
Heartland
Race Composition of Regions
Heartland
New Sunbelt
Melting Pot
2% 4%
10%
2%
2%
3%
26%
12%
15%
2%
54%
7%
70%
80%
11%
White
Source: William H. Frey
Black
Asian
Other
Hispanic
Hispanic Concentrations, 2005
Percent of County
Population
25% and above
10.0% to 24.9%
5.0 to 9.9%
Under 5%
Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
White Concentrations, 2005
Percent of County
Population
95% and above
85.0% to 94.9%
70.0% to 84.9%
Under 70%
Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
Children Speaking Spanish at
Home
20% and Over
10% to 20%
5% to 10%
Under 5%
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Race Profiles for
Occupations Los Angeles
Professional
& Mgrs
White
Clerical
& Sales
Black
Source:
Source: William
William Frey.
Frey. Milken
Milken Institute
Institute
Skilled Blue
Collar
Indian
Asian
Unskilled
&
Services
Hispanic
Race for Age Groups: US
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
73.2
57.6
61.4
Age Under
15
Age 15-39
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian
Age 40-64
Other
81.5
Age 65+
Hispanic
Race for Age Groups: California
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
53.5
31.8
36.7
Age Under
15
Age 15-39
White
Black
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian
Age 40-64
Other
65.2
Age 65+
Hispanic
Hispanics: 2004 Total vs Voter
Shares
50
45
40
35
30
Total
Voters
25
20
15
45
34
37
33
29
23
22
10
16
5
12
20
10
19
9
10
0
New
Mexico
Texas
Source: William H.Frey
California
Arizona
Nevada
Colorado
Florida
United States
Projected Race Compositions, 2025
Age 18 -64
Under Age 18
52 %
white
Age 65+
62 %
black
Indian
Source:
Source: William
William H.
H. Frey,
Frey, Brookings
Brookings Institution
Institution
Asian
76 %
Hispanic